Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s Long Term Cash Flows August 19, 2019
- Pontifications: Trump-China trade war hits Boeing August 19, 2019
- Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 4 August 16, 2019
- Will the A220 drive the trans-Atlantic fragmentation to smaller jets? Part 2. August 15, 2019
- Embraer presents second quarter 2019 results. August 14, 2019
Pontifications: More hints NMA is a “go”
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 3, 2018, © Leeham News: Safran, the French company that is a 50% partner in CFM International, believes Boeing will launch the New Midmarket Airplane next year.
Safran held its investors day last Thursday.
In sideline conversation, one of those attending reports that Safran met recently with Boeing and is convinced the NMA is a “go.”
(Others, elsewhere, remain skeptical.)
Engine company responses for proposals are due this month to Boeing. CFM, Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney are competing for the engine selection.
It’s believed Boeing would like a dual source (certainly airlines do), but in all likelihood, the odds-on favorite is that the NMA will have a sole source engine. The betting is that it will be CFM. Read more
How useful is an NMA, Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 14, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we operated the future Boeing NMA from North American hubs. The aircraft would cover the North American market well but would have limitations when flying to South America. The coverage would be sensitive to where our hub would be, as would European coverage.
Now we finish the series by comparing the NMA to its main alternatives for range and operational economics.
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- When comparing the NMA with its competitors, the same cabin type and ruleset must be used for all aircraft.
- Using a common ruleset and measuring over typical long range operation, the NMA will be the most economical aircraft of the compared types.
How useful is an NMA, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 1, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we looked at how a Boeing NMA would function as a medium range airliner in the Asia-Pacific.
We now continue with flying the two aircraft variants from Middle East locations, exploring how large an area in Asia, Europe and Africa the aircraft would cover.
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The profile of an NMA fits well in a Middle East Carrier’s fleet. Dependent on location it covers all of Europe and most of Africa and Asia.
- As the NMA is a lesser aircraft than the present long-range aircraft used on the routes it would have impressive economics for this type of operation.
Pontifications: Market Intelligence from NY
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 22, 2018, © Leeham News: I was in New York City last week for a series of meetings. Here’s what “the street” is talking about. I make no judgment calls about whether the thoughts are on target or not. Read more
Pontifications: “We will develop and actionable plan to develop supply chain”
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 15, 2018, © Leeham News: “With your help, we will develop actionable plans to develop the supply chain.”
This was the leading message from the 5th Annual South Carolina Aerospace Conference and Expo, held Tuesday and Wednesday last week in Columbia (SC).
Conference officials also said they are “exploring a national aerospace coalition.”
SAVE THE DATE
Organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal April 14-16, 2019 Francis Marion Hotel Charleston, SC |
The South Carolina Council on Competitive/SC Aerospace already have a Letter of Intent with Washington State’s Aerospace Futures Alliance “for the purpose of advancing the aerospace industry across the US. The LOI will serve as the platform for exploring the creation of a national aerospace Coalition (Coalition) with the objective of strengthening and growing commercial aviation, space, and unmanned aerial systems in the US through a variety of activities.”
How useful is an NMA?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 11, 2018, © Leeham News.: The Boeing NMA is by now reasonably well defined. The passenger capacity is set at 225 seats for the smaller version and 265 seats for the larger. The nominal range is 5,000nm for the smaller version and 4,750nm for the larger NMA.
This is all nominal data. In practice, there will be different operational realities which will decrease these figures. How much and how useful will the final operational NMA be? What will be the economic advantage over the direct competition?
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
To find out, we will pit the NMA against its direct competition in a series of articles.
Summary:
- The NMA as defined is configured according to Boeing’s STANDARD rule set. Using these rules, the smaller variant is classified as a 225 seat airliner with a range of 5,000nm. The larger as a 265 seat aircraft with a 4,500nm range.
- In practice, operational realities and cabins changes compared with the ones used in the STANDARD ruleset will decrease the seating capacity of the aircraft and its range. How much and why is discussed in this, the first article in the series.
Pontifications: “Enterprise P&L” key to NMA business case
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 4, 2018, © Leeham News: A consensus appears to have developed among aerospace analysts that the business model for the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft is about much more than the profit-and-loss case for a stand-alone airplane program.
It’s something that Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg has alluded to many times on earnings calls and elsewhere.
But now, as Boeing moves toward a decision to launch the NMA program next year, the business model has fundamentally become defined.
Note that I say, “toward a decision,” not “if the program will be launched.” I’m convinced Boeing will greenlight the NMA.
Pontifications: Workforce plan for NMA to be announced soon
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 1, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Choose Washington NMA task force said last week it will release this month recommendations for improving aerospace workforce activities in Washington.
It’s about time.
The task force was appointed by Gov. Jay Inslee to come up with a plan to persuade Boeing to choose Washington as the assembly site for its prospective New Midmarket Airplane, the NMA.
Two studies, one by the Teal Group and the other by Price Waterhouse Cooper, conclude Washington is the best aerospace cluster and location to build the NMA. The conclusions are unsurprising, given the maturity, size and scope of the cluster in Puget Sound (the greater Seattle area). No other place in the country has this level of aerospace activity.
But the reports failed to adequately address the top priority that Boeing has: the need for skilled workers and engineers.
At long last, the NMA council is getting there.
How Boeing’s T-X and NMA are connected
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 1, 2018, © Leeham News.: Boeing and its partner SAAB Thursday won a $9.2bn U.S. Air Force T-X Pilot Training contract. It was a win for its Defense, Space & Security division, yet it will have major implications for Boeing’s Commercial Airplane (BCA) division and the NMA.
The NMA will change the way Boeing develops, produces and supports airliners. The T-X is the pilot for this change.
Loose concept of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The focus of Boeing for the NMA is faster and lower cost development, cheaper production and an extended support offering.
- The Military T-X program pilots the work practices needed to make this possible.
Assessing 737 production rate interest to 70/mo
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Introduction
Sept. 27, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing hasn’t gone to a production rate of 57/mo for its 737 and studies have long been underway looking at a rate of not only
63/mo but also 70/mo, supply chain sources tell LNC.
Rate 57, up from 52, is scheduled for next July. Sixty-three has long been considered the maximum allowed for the current Renton (WA) factory, the sole location where commercial 737s are assembled.
But Boeing, in yet another step in its drive for more efficiencies, is analyzing how to push 70 airplanes a month through the same facility.
Summary
- MAX 8 remains the staple of the 737 family.
- MAX 10 helps family, stems bleeding, but A321 still outsells 737-9/10 by about 2:5:1.
- 9/10 MAX represent 17% of MAX backlog. A321neo is 34% of neo backlog.
- Boeing has more sales replacement potential than Airbus.