Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Unsustainable – and growing – airline debt load weighs on OEMs, suppliers April 22, 2021
- 10 Minutes About: Boeing, Calhoun’s extension and Smith’s retirement April 21, 2021
- Boeing AGM routine, action came an hour before April 20, 2021
- The conundrum of a new airplane design vs a derivative April 19, 2021
- Pontifications: End appears in sight for 16-year old US-EU trade dispute April 19, 2021
The range of Airbus A321XLR
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 27, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus launched the extended range A321XLR last week at the Paris Air Show.
The range of the aircraft was presented as 4,700nm with an “around 200 seat” cabin. This was 200nm more than the market expected.
We use our performance model to explain what is behind the 4,700nm figure.
Air Lease was the first presented customer for the A321XLR last week. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The 4,700nm is with “around 200” passengers and with the Airbus short range rule set.
- We calculate the range of the A321XLR with typical airline rules and with different cabin configurations, including a three class long-range cabin with lie-flat business seats.
NMA is a briar patch, top Airbus salesman says
#AirbusID
May 21, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: The chief commercial officer for Airbus half hopes Boeing will step into a briar patch and launch its long-discussed New Midmarket Airplane, but the real message is clear: leave well enough alone.
Left unsaid it Airbus doesn’t want to have to launch a new airplane of its own.
Christian Scherer, the chief commercial officer for Airbus, said he wouldn’t speak for Boeing when asked if Boeing “has” to launch the NMA because of the declining market share of the 737 MAX vs the A321neo and inferior range and field performance of the -9/10 MAXes. He questioned Boeing’s own position about the NMA.
He made these remarks on the sidelines of the annual Airbus Innovation Days pre-air show briefings.
“I’m not sure they have a unified position on it. What I want to say is that we are in a very competitive duopoly, which is great for our customers,” he said. “There’s competition everywhere. You don’t have to dominate one segment or the other segment. There’s quite healthy business in it for Boeing on the 737. There’s quite healthy business in it on bigger airplanes. I’m not sure they have to do anything. Do they want to do something? Yeah, maybe.”
Delta Tech Ops 5-year goal to double revenues
#MROAM
Ed Bastian, Delta Air Lines CEO.
April 9, 2019, © Leeham News: Delta Air Lines has the third largest third-party MRO company in North America and aggressively seeks to grow, in sharp contrast to its competitors.
While American and United airlines have limited their own maintenance, repair and overhaul, let alone seek third party business, Delta Tech Ops is a business unit and profit center. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said today that Tech Ops will achieve $1bn in revenues this year and has a goal of $2bn within five years.
Bastian was the lead-off speaker at the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta this week.
Impact to Boeing for MAX grounding assessed
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Introduction
March 19, 2019, © Leeham News: The impact of the grounding of the 737 MAX to Boeing will hurt, but the effect likely will be short term.
The most recent grounding of an airliner was the 2013 grounding of the 787. This cost Boeing an estimated $500m over the course of the three month
grounding. A hardware fix had to be designed to contain battery fires. Installation in the field for 50 aircraft was required. Compensation to operators was necessary.
There are more than 370 MAXes grounded. Norwegian Airlines and Spice Jet already publicly said they will demand compensation. Deliveries are suspended.
This grounding should be much shorter than was the 787.
Summary
- MAX fix was already in the works.
- Some say US government shutdown delayed software fix at least five weeks.
- Implementing software upgrade will be quick.
- Grounding estimated by LNA to be six weeks max.
- MAX grounding cost estimated $550m over several years.
- Short term revenue shift $11bn to later in the year.
Airbus appears poised to launch A321XLR
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Introduction
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: The longer Boeing dithers on launching the New Midmarket Airplane, the harder it is to close an already difficult business case.
News last week that Airbus finally, at long last, is appears about to launch its Xtra Long Range A321XLR this year is overdue. Doing so will make Boeing’s NMA business case more difficult to close.
The aircraft should have been launch in late 2017, an insider told LNA recently. But the corruption scandals enveloping Airbus disrupted plans and drove executives to indecision. Launching the A321XLR was put on hold.
Summary
- Killing the NMA.
- A321XLR details.
- Narrow market.
- Engine down select soon.
Pontifications: March is a critical month for engine OEMs
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Even as Boeing put off a decision whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft until 2020, next month could be an important milestone—not only for the program but especially for the engine makers.
Unless delayed, engine down-select is supposed to be made in March.
This is a critical decision that could have huge implications to one of the engine OEMs—Rolls-Royce.
Pontifications: The 747 revolutionized air travel
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Few airplanes truly can be called revolutionary. Most are evolutionary.
The Boeing 747 was one of those that falls into the former category.
Just as the Boeing 707 revolutionized air travel, so did the 747.
The spaciousness and, after a period of engine difficulties, the economics put the 747 into a class by itself.
Countdown to NMA decision, Part 4: Time out
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Feb. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time for Airbus to launch the A321XLR.
Boeing last week announced a program launch for the New Midmarket Airplane won’t come until 2020 at the earliest.
Authority to Offer (ATO) may come as early as March or April. It had been widely expected a program launch would be announced at the Paris Air Show in June.
Airbus has been mulling the XLR launch since 2017. Inside information says a November 2017 launch was planned when all the distractions over the corruption scandals, coupled with key executive retirements, overwhelmed events.
Fifteen months later, Airbus dithers while Boeing vacillates.
Key customers shrug off Boeing’s 2020 NMA launch date
Jan. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Key customers and suppliers shrugged off Boeing’s announcement today that a program launch for the prospective New 
Midmarket Aircraft won’t come until 2020.
If Boeing goes ahead with the NMA, a decision yet to be made, an announcement was widely expected at the Paris Air Show in June.
Authority to Offer (ATO) the airplane for sale may still come as early as March or April.
Pontificatons: From the sidelines at the AFJ Dublin conference
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: Launch by Boeing of the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) is pretty much a given, despite a still undecided business case, say people on the sidelines of the Airfinance Journal’s Dublin 2019 conference.
Here is a potpourri of information picked up at the conference, which is attended by about 2,000 people.