Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
How much of an NMA market will the Airbus A321XLR capture? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 25, 2019, © Leeham News: We continue our discussion from last week of what part of an NMA market the Airbus A321XLR would capture.
We started the study by comparing the aircraft with a common yardstick. It brought some revealing insights. Now we continue by looking at the airline routes these aircraft can cover and their economics when covering these routes.
Summary:
- The NMAs and the A321XLR cover the same routes with small differences in range performance.
- The major difference is in their passenger capacity, where they are complementary rather than competitors.
How much of an NMA market will the Airbus A321XLR capture?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus’ new A321XLR is labeled as an Boeing NMA killer. It shall, with its capability to fly the same routes as the NMA, nibble away on its market space.
This discussion takes the Airbus passenger and range data for the A321XLR and compares it with the announced capabilities of the NMA. As we will see, it’s not that simple.
Summary:
- To understand how the A321XLR will compete with the NMA, we first need to compare them with the same yardstick.
- Putting them on the same cabin and operational rule set reveals interesting differences. The A321XLR and the NMA are complementary rather than competitors.
Will the NMA-7 finally kill the A330?
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By Judson Rollins
July 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing is expected to proceed with the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) once the 737 MAX gets clearance to return to service. News from the Paris Air Show indicates Boeing may launch the larger model, the NMA-7, first.
The 270-passenger version of the NMA is viewed by some—including Boeing—as the airplane that would effectively kill the A330neo.
Twelve years ago, the 787 was supposed to finally kill the A330 once and for all … and we saw how that turned out. But this time may well be different.
Rendering of Boeing NMA-7. Source: Leeham Co.
SAP and advanced manufacturing cut costs for current, new airplanes
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July 1, 2019, © Leeham News: Improving supply chain management is one of the many, many key factors in making the business case for the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Airplane.
The prospective Boeing NMA needs SAP and advanced manufacturing processes to help close the business case. Source: Leeham Co.
The highly complex task of managing a supply chain with millions of parts across many product lines can break down quickly with any weak link, be it from a supplier or in the management system itself.
Quality control, security, misrouting, package integrity in shipping are among the key issues. The sheer magnitude of tracking inventory is huge.
Boeing uses Enterprise Resource Planning and is shifting the system to a new, expanded one called Systems Applications Projects. SAP is the next generation of ERP. Even though ERP has been in use for decades, last year there was a breakdown in deliveries that contributed to production interruptions of the 737 NG (late deliveries of the CFM 56 were a bigger problem).
Boeing’s transition from ERP to SAP is taking longer than anticipated, with a 2021-ish target.
Related articles:
With the NMA business case continuing to be difficult to close, Boeing’s need to attack every cost is clear.
The range of Airbus A321XLR
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 27, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus launched the extended range A321XLR last week at the Paris Air Show.
The range of the aircraft was presented as 4,700nm with an “around 200 seat” cabin. This was 200nm more than the market expected.
We use our performance model to explain what is behind the 4,700nm figure.
Air Lease was the first presented customer for the A321XLR last week. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The 4,700nm is with “around 200” passengers and with the Airbus short range rule set.
- We calculate the range of the A321XLR with typical airline rules and with different cabin configurations, including a three class long-range cabin with lie-flat business seats.
NMA is a briar patch, top Airbus salesman says
#AirbusID
May 21, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: The chief commercial officer for Airbus half hopes Boeing will step into a briar patch and launch its long-discussed New Midmarket Airplane, but the real message is clear: leave well enough alone.
Left unsaid it Airbus doesn’t want to have to launch a new airplane of its own.
Christian Scherer, the chief commercial officer for Airbus, said he wouldn’t speak for Boeing when asked if Boeing “has” to launch the NMA because of the declining market share of the 737 MAX vs the A321neo and inferior range and field performance of the -9/10 MAXes. He questioned Boeing’s own position about the NMA.
He made these remarks on the sidelines of the annual Airbus Innovation Days pre-air show briefings.
“I’m not sure they have a unified position on it. What I want to say is that we are in a very competitive duopoly, which is great for our customers,” he said. “There’s competition everywhere. You don’t have to dominate one segment or the other segment. There’s quite healthy business in it for Boeing on the 737. There’s quite healthy business in it on bigger airplanes. I’m not sure they have to do anything. Do they want to do something? Yeah, maybe.”
Delta Tech Ops 5-year goal to double revenues
#MROAM
Ed Bastian, Delta Air Lines CEO.
April 9, 2019, © Leeham News: Delta Air Lines has the third largest third-party MRO company in North America and aggressively seeks to grow, in sharp contrast to its competitors.
While American and United airlines have limited their own maintenance, repair and overhaul, let alone seek third party business, Delta Tech Ops is a business unit and profit center. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said today that Tech Ops will achieve $1bn in revenues this year and has a goal of $2bn within five years.
Bastian was the lead-off speaker at the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta this week.
Impact to Boeing for MAX grounding assessed
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Introduction
March 19, 2019, © Leeham News: The impact of the grounding of the 737 MAX to Boeing will hurt, but the effect likely will be short term.
The most recent grounding of an airliner was the 2013 grounding of the 787. This cost Boeing an estimated $500m over the course of the three month
grounding. A hardware fix had to be designed to contain battery fires. Installation in the field for 50 aircraft was required. Compensation to operators was necessary.
There are more than 370 MAXes grounded. Norwegian Airlines and Spice Jet already publicly said they will demand compensation. Deliveries are suspended.
This grounding should be much shorter than was the 787.
Summary
- MAX fix was already in the works.
- Some say US government shutdown delayed software fix at least five weeks.
- Implementing software upgrade will be quick.
- Grounding estimated by LNA to be six weeks max.
- MAX grounding cost estimated $550m over several years.
- Short term revenue shift $11bn to later in the year.
Airbus appears poised to launch A321XLR
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Introduction
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: The longer Boeing dithers on launching the New Midmarket Airplane, the harder it is to close an already difficult business case.
News last week that Airbus finally, at long last, is appears about to launch its Xtra Long Range A321XLR this year is overdue. Doing so will make Boeing’s NMA business case more difficult to close.
The aircraft should have been launch in late 2017, an insider told LNA recently. But the corruption scandals enveloping Airbus disrupted plans and drove executives to indecision. Launching the A321XLR was put on hold.
Summary
- Killing the NMA.
- A321XLR details.
- Narrow market.
- Engine down select soon.
Pontifications: March is a critical month for engine OEMs
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Even as Boeing put off a decision whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft until 2020, next month could be an important milestone—not only for the program but especially for the engine makers.
Unless delayed, engine down-select is supposed to be made in March.
This is a critical decision that could have huge implications to one of the engine OEMs—Rolls-Royce.