Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises
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Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
- No new products from Airbus.
- Boeing may have a surprise.
- Low number of orders anticipated.
Farnborough Air Show Preview: Orders aren’t the only thing to look for
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Introduction
John Schmidt of the consulting firm Accenture, wearing smart glasses for augmented reality.
June 27, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The Farnborough Air Show (FIA16) is closely watched for orders placed with Airbus, Boeing and to a much lesser extent, Bombardier and Embraer. Orders are the headline grabbers and are viewed as indicative to the health of commercial aviation going forward in the near- and mid-term.
But the consulting firm Accenture, in an interview with LNC says there are other benchmarks to watch for at FIA16.
Summary
- A large number of new entrants into aerospace is competing for engineering talent, and it’s not the conventional suspects.
- Execution will be of greater importance than new products.
- The ascent of disruptive technologies; and
- Doubling down on data deluge.
Iran Air, Volga Dnepr deals help Boeing production gaps but don’t solve them
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Introduction
June 24, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: Boeing’s recent deal with Iran Air for 100 737s, 777s and 747s and its indication that a Memorandum of Understanding with Volga Dnepr may be firmed up will help fill production gaps on the 777 Classic and 747-8 lines. But these transactions won’t fully fill the gaps.
Boeing declined to detail the breakdown of its order–which is still subject to US government approval–but Reuters and The Wall Street Journal obtained the detailed list.
The Volga Dnepr MOU was announced last year at the Paris Air Show for up to 20 747-8Fs. This month, news emerged that this MOU appears to be firming up for 10 plus options or commitments. This contract may be announced at the Farnborough Air Show.
Summary
- Iran Air deal includes four 747-8s and 15 777-300ERs. Helpful, but not enough to fill the production gaps.
- Volga’s firming of 10 orders is helpful for the 747-8, but even at a reduced production rate of six airplanes per year, a significant gap remains.
Mid-Market airplane comes before A320, 737 replacement: Pratt & Whitney exec
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Introduction
June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A middle of the market airplane will come before a replacement for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, predicts Alan Epstein, vice
Alan Epstein, VP technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney.
president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.
“The challenge to the business of the narrow-bodies is the A320s and the 737s are so learned-out that Boeing and Airbus are so efficient at building those airplanes, that their inherent cost is so low, it’s extremely difficult to move into that market,” Epstein said. “Because the learning curve, you need incredibly deep pockets and you’re going to be negative for a long time.
“I think that also applies to Airbus and Boeing,” Epstein said, referring to the prospect of a new single-aisle aircraft.
Summary
- New single aisle airplane would be a “white elephant” for 10 years.
- Engines need to be at least 10% more efficient than today’s GTF and LEAP for a new single-aisle aircraft.
- Middle-Market airplane likely to come first.
Slowing economies begin to impact Airbus, Boeing
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Introduction
LatAm Airbus A350. LatAm may defer some A350s and/or Boeing 787s. Photo: Flickr via Google images.
June 13, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Signs are becoming more frequent that airlines are facing slowing economies around the globe, with impacts on existing orders in the backlog.
Last week JetBlue said it is trimming growth on rising fuel costs and softening revenue. LatAm also said last week that it plans to trim some Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 orders amid slumping traffic in Brazil. Delta Air Lines previously said it will defer four A350s and trimming growth due to slowing economy.
Summary
- Wide-body sales slowing this year.
- 787 Surplus developed.
- A330neo sales stall.
- A350-2000 on hold.
- 777 Classic sales stall.
- Cargo demand still anemic, says IATA.
UTAS sees increasing electronic architecture in future airplanes
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Introduction
June 9, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The debate continues whether the next new, clean-sheet airplane will be a Middle of the Market aircraft (MOMA) or replacements for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families.
Along with he studies of new airplanes are those undertaken by suppliers. Electric Systems, a unit of United Technologies Aerosystems (UTAS), is working with the OEMs to determine what level of electric systems will be used in the new aircraft, whatever is selected to go next.
Summary
- Electric systems on the Boeing 787 are up to 80% more efficient than those on the Boeing 777 Classic.
- The 777X retains the Classic systems or commonality.
- Benefits decline the shorter the flight.
Airbus stepping up innovation
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 6, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In January last year I had a discussion with Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier regarding the innovation level at Airbus. The background to the discussion was that Airbus was trailing its direct competitor, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, in innovations since the early 2000s.
Airbus started life as a more innovative company than Boeing. It was using new technology in an aggressive way to gain product advantages on the incumbent Boeing. Examples are the universal use of Fly-By-Wire (FBW) and the standardization on a common cockpit layout for all its aircraft, whether single or dual aisle, Figure 1.
Figure 1, Airbus A320 cockpit laying the ground for a common cockpit standard. Source: Wikipedia.
The FBW and common cockpit enabled customer pilots to cover a wider range of aircraft with minimal training. Airbus also led the aerodynamic development with high aspect ratio wings for its A320 and A330/340 series aircraft.
Somewhere during the problems with the A380, the creative and innovative spirit got caught in the aim to unify the group, to make sure that the “I make it my way” initiatives stopped in the different national industries that made up Airbus.
Airbus changing production to be more competitive
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 1, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: With the large aircraft development programs being on the way to fade out and give way to incremental improvement programs, Airbus is shifting its focus onto making its production more competitive.
The revenue and profitability of Airbus commercial aircraft depends on up to 90% on delivered airliners. With the pricing determined by the market, the production costs are virtually determining Airbus’ bottom line.
Figure 1. The forward part of an A350 loaded into Station 50 in the Final Assembly line. Source: Airbus.
The classical Airbus production system was designed to satisfy industrial-political rather rational production criteria, with each participating national aeronautical industry vigorously carving out its piece of the production pie. The result was a production system that had non-optimal efficiencies.
With the coming 5-10 years being a period of incremental development amid a further ramp up of production, the time has now come to focus the Airbus production system and to change this to an efficient and streamlined operation.
New KC-46A delay means more charges probable
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Introduction
May 30, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s the classic maneuver to bury bad news: Boeing
Boeing KC-46A. Source: National Defense Magazine via Google images.
announced on Friday, the start of the three-day Memorial Day weekend that its KC-46A tanker will be delayed yet again. Only 16 days earlier, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said the tanker was on time under a schedule that had been revised previously.
That wasn’t all, according to the announcement. Even when the tankers are delivered, the wing pod refueling systems won’t be operational. (The Boeing statement is below the jump.)
If all this has a familiar ring, it should.
The previous version of the KC-46A, the KC-767 International Tanker, was delayed four years in part because of flutter issues with the pod refueling systems.
Only eight of these tankers were built: four for the Italians and four for the Japanese. Boeing took huge write-offs for these tankers.
Summary
- Will the latest delay be the last?
- Boeing is building tankers despite the need for rework and some internal design changes.
- Are we facing the prospect of a new set of “Terrible Teens”?
- Another write-off is probable-and it may not be the last.
- Will the full USAF tanker procurement yield a profit on the sale?