By Bjorn Fehrm
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February 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Norwegian will start trans-Atlantic flying between Edinburgh and New England for $75 one-way in late spring when it gets its Boeing 737 MAX 8.
The introductory price will be $69. CEO Bjorn Kjos says the operating costs of the 737 MAX 8, “which is very low,” will make this level of ticket pricing possible.
We were the first to point out (November 2014 in this article) the re-engined MAX 8 would be a trans-Atlantic enabler at a new cost level. We didn’t put the passenger ticket at $75 at the time. Time to check if it’s possible to make money with such fare prices.
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Feb. 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer’s new E2 jet faces a major challenge: the US pilot Scope Clause that limits the number, seats and weight of aircraft that can by operated by regional airlines on behalf of the US legacy carriers.
The E175 E2 exceeds the 86,000 lb weight limit in the Scope Clause. Unions declined last year to adjust this limit upward. The next round of contract talks begins in 2019.
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Jan. 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus A350 production rates are solid at 10/mo through 2022 but can’t support increasing them to the oft-discussed 13/mo, based on LNC’s analysis of the current backlog.
Airbus A330-900 and A350-900. Source: Airbus.
The backlog currently falls off sharply in 2023. At six years out, there is plenty of time to fill the production gap—in theory. The dearth of wide-body orders through the end of the decade could make this challenging.
The A330 is a near-term challenge.
According to an analysis of its backlog, only three-quarters of the delivery slots are filled in 2019 and fewer in 2020. The backlog begins to fall sharply in 2021.
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Jan. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In a sister article, we will describe how Airbus A380 might change from a flagship aircraft for legacy carriers to a competitive tool for long-range LCCs.
This change of the A380’s profile is based on bringing cabin densities to the levels of other long haul aircraft. We have historically made detailed operating costs studies of the A380 versus other large long-haul aircraft.
With the possible change in the aircraft’s operating profile, we decided to update the study with the A380ceo pitted against its main competitors, Boeing’s 777-300ER and 777-9. Different from the previous study, we now compared all aircraft in a higher density, two-class seating.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has given its sales team the “authority to offer” the 737 MAX 10. The aircraft is a stretched version of the 737 MAX 9, designed to compete more successfully with Airbus A321neo.
Boeing worked on the variant for the last year. It started off as a more ambitious change over the 737 MAX 9, but it turned out too expensive and would have taken too long to get to market. The variant that Boeing now offers to airlines is a simple stretch of the 737 MAX 9.
The backing down to a stretched MAX 9 solves the cost and timing problem, but will it solve the competitiveness problem? We make a first analysis.
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Jan. 11, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: Future production rates of the Boeing 787 is a concern for LNC, which has been explained in detail here.
A little history provides some context.
As far back as March 2014, we identified the growing production gap for the 777 Classic. In presentations in April and May 2014, we outlined this gap (Figure 1) and forecast that production rates would have to come down in the not-too-distant future.
The rest, as they say, is history.
Deferrals grow as airlines fight to keep bottom line
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Introduction
Jan. 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airlines have deferred or are thinking about deferring more than 400 airplanes in the near term, a review of decisions and deliberations that have been made during the last 12 months.
LNC tracked announcements last year of deferrals and statements by airlines that they are thinking about doing so.
We began identifying macro-level issues last week in our posts about emerging concerns for the 787 and LNC’s Outlook for 2017.
Reasons vary widely for the deferrals, these reports indicated. Low oil prices. Slowing economies. Declining financial results. Worries about two of the three top Middle Eastern carriers. A capital squeeze in China. Pressure on long-haul carriers from the emerging sector of low cost, long-haul airlines. Preserving capital expenditures to keep the bottom line in the black.
Today we detail the deferrals we tracked.
Summary
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Posted on January 9, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Delta Air Lines, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce
777 Classic, 787, A380, Airbus, airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Emirates Airlines, Goldman Sachs, Qatar Airways