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7M7 is key to Boeing’s future

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Introduction

An enthusiast’s concept of the Boeing 797. Image via Google.

April 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing faces growing challenges this year as airplane sales slow, production of the 777 Classic declines, its new Global Services unit prepares to formally launch and a decision whether to authorize a sales offering for the New Midrange Airplane looms.

We’ve spent a lot of time covering slowing sales and declining 777 production. Tomorrow, we’ll have a special report on the ambitious Global Services strategy.

We’ve also spent a lot of time on the Boeing NMA. LNC’s Bjorn Fehrm last week presented number three in a paywall series on the NMA, looking at it from a technical viewpoint. We’ll take a look at it from a strategic point of view today.

Summary

There is a demand for the NMA that is commercially viable.
Middle of the Market sector is larger than typically defined.
7M7 is key to Boeing’s future.

6 Comments

Posted on April 24, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Leeham News and Comment, Middle of the Market, MOM, Premium

737-10, 737-9, 747-8, 787, 787-8, 787-9, 7M7, A321LR, A321NEO, A330-200, A330-800, A380, A400M, Airbus, Boeing

Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 5

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After defining the fuselage and wings, it’s now time for the engines. We go through the sizing criteria for engines for airliners and find the size of engine that is needed for the NMA.

The NMA will need engines which are larger than the single aisle engines for Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX. But they will be smaller than the next size up for modern engines, the GEnx-2B for Boeing’s 747-8.

Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United

This means the NMA will need new engines, at least 50% larger than the present engines designed for A320neo and 737 MAX.

Summary:

An NMA engine will be sized by V2 safety speed or Maximum Continuous Thrust (MCT) criteria.
The normal Top of Climb (ToC) sizing point will be less stressing for a twin engine airliner like NMA.

Asian airline shift portends big ramifications

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Introduction

April 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: A shift is underway among Asian airlines that could have ramifications for the airframe and engine manufacturers and, by extension, their suppliers.

It doesn’t appear, however, that aerospace analysts in the US and Europe realize this shift. At least none has written about it that we’ve seen among the research notes we receive.

Summary

The creation of the Value Alliance of Low Cost Carriers brings together eight LCCs under one alliance.
AirAsia faces a competitive threat.
Full service carriers also face a threat, particularly those in Japan, concludes one aerospace analyst team in the region.
Airbus, Boeing have a backlog of more than 1,000 airplanes with the VALCC group and hundreds more with other airlines.

1 Comment

Posted on April 17, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

AirAsia, Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, CFM, Lessors, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce

AirAsia, AirAsiaX, Airbus, airines, Boeing, CebuPacific, CFM, Goldman Sachs, Jeju Air, LionAir, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 4?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week we finished the sizing of the fuselage for an NMA design. Now we continue with the wing. We go through the key parameters that will decide the performance of the wing and the aircraft.

The NMA is a critical design case. The performance envelope has to be just right. Too high and the economics of the aircraft won’t work, both for purchase price and operational costs.

Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United

Summary:

Wing design is the mixing of conflicting requirements to a successful compromise.
The NMA wing will use the design principles of the Boeing 787/777X wings but will be different in area, size and plan-form.
The wing is sizing the engines, something we will look at in the next article.

5 Comments

Posted on April 13, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Boeing, Middle of the Market, MOM, Premium

737, 767-200, 767-300, 787, A320, A330, A350, Airbus, Boeing, MOM, NMA

Delta reviewing Airbus wide-body order, but more is going on

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Introduction

April 12, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Delta Air Lines today said on its earnings call that it is reviewing its wide-body order with Airbus.

At face value, the Delta statement might seem alarming. But as so often becomes the case, the “review” may not be what it seems.

Summary

There is more activity about fleet requirements than simply “reviewing” the wide-body orders.
Delta’s preparing to issue an RFP for single-aisle Airbus A321neos and/or Boeing 737-9/10s.
Boeing hopes Delta will be a launch customer for the MAX 10.
The NMA/MOM aircraft could be involved.

1 Comment

Posted on April 12, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, ISTAT, Premium

737-10, 737-9, 757, 767-300ER, 767-400, 777-200ER, 777-200LR, 7M7, A321NEO, A330-200R, A330-900, A350-900, Airbus, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, MOM, NMA

Middle Eastern airline turmoil hits Boeing

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Introduction

April 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Tim Clark of Emirates Airline said the new breed of long-haul, low cost carriers are hurting EK’s load factors and yields.

Etihad Airlines’ business strategy of taking financial stakes in LCCs hasn’t produced the positive financial results desired.

Three big airlines, EK, EY and Qatar Airways, face over-capacity now compounded by electronic carry-on restrictions by the US and UK.

Figure 1. Click on image for a crisp view.

The thee carriers largely compete for the same connecting traffic through hubs only 72-235 miles apart (Figure 1). This is like having hubs in Milwaukee and Chicago (81 air miles apart) and Chicago-Detroit (237 air miles) with much, much smaller domestic catchment basins.

Summary

Declining financial results for Emirates, Etihad.
Deferring airplanes: 787s, 777X
Long-haul LLC, Trump travel ban, poor investments hurt the airlines.

Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 3?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After sizing the cabin of the NMA, the time has now come to size the fuselage. Can a fuselage be designed that gives an NMA “dual aisle comfort with single aisle economics”?

Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United

We will investigate the dimensions, the drag and the weight of an NMA fuselage. It will be based on the cabin and design techniques we described in Part 2. We then compare the efficiency of the result with the fuselages of the Airbus A321LR and Boeing 767. This will show if the necessary efficiency can be achieved.

Summary:

It’s possible to design a dual aisle fuselage with the same perimeter per seat abreast as a single aisle fuselage.
This will make the central, cylindrical, section have competitive weight and drag characteristics.
The larger diameter of the dual aisle fuselage will increase the size of the tapered front and rear sections however.
It’s still possible for an NMA fuselage to be as weight-efficient as a single aisle fuselage, measured per transported passenger.

7 Comments

Posted on April 6, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Boeing, Future aircraft, Middle of the Market, MOM, Premium

767, 767-200, A321LR, Airbus, Boeing, MOM. Middle of the Market, NMA

No new design needed for turboprops, says Bombardier

Part 1, ATR, appeared last week. Today’s interview with Bombardier completes the two-part series.

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Introduction

April 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier doesn’t think a new, clean-sheet turboprop aircraft is needed any time soon, a position that stands in contrast with rival ATR.

Bombardier Q400.

Ross Mitchell, VP Commercial for BBD, believes the Q400 covers the turboprop segment from 70 to 90 seats and its operational flexibility covers everything airlines need today.

However, ATR has 85% of the backlog with BBD capturing the other 15%.

Still, Mitchell gives a strong defense of the Q400.

Summary:

Don’t believe everything ATR claims about operating cost advantages, BBD says.

BBD can move cockpit and wing production from Canada to lower costs—but where is the question.

Re-engining the Q400 isn’t in the cards, at least any time soon.

Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 2?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the first part of our investigation on how good an NMA can be, we explored low weight and drag fuselage design. We will now continue with the design consequences for the fuselage construction and the cabin.

What drives whether one goes for an Aluminum or CFRP (Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer) fuselage?

Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200 pictured). Source: United.

What will be the typical dimensions for an NMA fuselage and what will be passenger capacities?

Summary:

An elliptical fuselage will force a CFRP design.
The fuselage door configuration will be critical for cabin capacity and flexibility.

Read more

3 Comments

Posted on April 3, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm

Boeing, CFM, Future aircraft, Middle of the Market, MOM, Pratt & Whitney, Premium

787, 7M7, Airbus, Boeing, CFM, MOM, NMA, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

New ATR CEO favors clean-sheet design turboprop

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Part 1; Bombardier will appear next week.

Introduction

March 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Economics simply don’t support development of a new turboprop any time soon, an analysis shows.

Low utilization by turboprop operators, the cost of development and the price to customers drive decision-making more than fuel prices.

LNC interviewed ATR and Bombardier officials for their views on development of a new turboprop. We also interviewed a key executive who knows the sector intimately. Their views diverge.

Summary

It will cost upwards of $5bn to develop a new turboprop.
The 20-year demand is limited, 2,000-2,500 depending on the forecaster.
The top-end price point is at best in the low-to-mid-$20m. Any more than this, and the price encroaches on small jets.
At least 90 seats are needed.
Fuel burn reduction of at least 30% is needed—a difficult target.

1 Comment

Posted on March 30, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, ATR, Bombardier, Premium

ATR, ATR-72, Bombardier, Christian Scherer, MA-60, MA-700, Q400, Ross Mitchhell

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