Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Special Report: Focus on the Boeing 737-10
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May 15, 2017: © Leeham Co.: It’s coming down to crunch time for Boeing to launch the 737-10 MAX.
There was the “soft launch” of the airplane at the March 2017 ISTAT conference in San Diego.
The Paris Air Show is around the corner. It’s next month, and Boeing officials want to launch the program there.
In a Special Report, Leeham Co. LLC is re-launching the magazine that was the foundation of the creation of Leeham Co. and Leeham News and Comment. The magazine, Commercial Aviation Report, or CAR for short, takes an in-depth look at the 737-10, its genesis and its competitive position against the Airbus A321neo.
Regional aircraft for US Scope clause operations. Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the first article about the US regional aircraft market, we described the special rules that apply for outsourced regional airlines, operating for a mainline carrier. The mainline pilots limit the outsourcing via Scope clauses in their Union agreements to aircraft with 76 seats and 86,000lb Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW).
We identified potential aircraft that fit these restrictions in the first article. Now we examine their load carrying capability.
The MTOW limit sets a hard limit on how large aircraft can be used to house 76 seats. The mainline carriers want the regionals to mimic their domestic cabin classes in their aircraft. There shall be no disruption for a First class or Premium economy passenger whether on a mainline flight or on a feed flight to/from the hub.
The challenge is to accommodate the seating standard in the aircraft that come in question.
Summary:
- Mainline airlines want to replicate their three class cabins for all sectors of a network.
- This means the regional aircraft cabins shall offer First class, Premium economy and Economy sections.
- Only the larger aircraft we study can offer a three class cabin with 76 seats.
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WestJet’s 787, international strategy fraught with risks
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Introduction
Boeing 787-9. WestJet ordered 10 and placed an option for 10 more. Deliveries begin in 2019. Boeing photo.
May 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: WestJet, Canada’s #2 airline behind Air Canada, is making dramatic departures from its low-cost, low-fare strategy since the company began operations in February 1996.
The company earlier announced it will form an Ultra Low-Cost Carrier (ULCC). Last week came an order for 10 Boeing 787-9s and options for 10 more. Deliveries begin in 2019.
Summary
- WestJet is taking on Air Canada and its LCC unit, Rouge, in LCC and long-haul LCC markets.
- “Too much going on to get comfortable,” writes analyst.
- Capital costs will go up significantly.
Regional aircraft for US Scope clause operations
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The US regional aircraft market changed shape last year. Most players expected that the negotiations between mainline pilots and the airlines would allow larger and heavier aircraft going forward.
But no, the present limits of 76 passengers and a Max Take-Off Weight (MTOW) of 86,000lb remained. Next negotiation round will be 2019 (United Airlines) and 2020 (American and Delta Airlines). By now, most observers expect the present limits to stay beyond 2020.
Figure 1. United Express Embraer E175. Source: United Airlines.
The non-moving limits surprised manufacturers. They expected their new aircraft could fit under new rules, allowing heavier aircraft.
With the changed situation, we go through which aircraft fit the present rules and which does not. And what are the options, should the rules not change come 2020.
Summary:
- The present scope clause-compliant aircraft are the CRJ700 and CRJ900 from Bombardier and E175-E1 from Embraer.
- These aircraft will be joined by the new MRJ70 from Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation at the turn of the decade. The MRJ90 will arrive as well, but is too heavy for Scope-restricted airlines.
- We use our performance model to dive into how these aircraft operate under present and future Scope clause rules.
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C919, the Chinese challenger
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
May 01, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) C919 is expected to have its first flight this month, perhaps as early as this week. We review where the program stands and how it compares to its competition.
When the C919 program was launched in 2008, neither Airbus nor Boeing envisioned re-engining the A320 and 737 families. First flight was planned for 2014 and entry-into-service in 2016.
The C919 would have had economic and capital cost advantages over the A320 and 737NG. With program delays of at least four years, and maybe more, those advantages have been narrowed. Read more
Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We have in several articles gone through the sizing of an NMA (New Midrange Aircraft). We looked at the fuselage, cabin, wings and engines. Now we will sum the exercises and look at the performance of the resulting aircraft.
Boeing is seriously considering launching an NMA. The key to the launch decision will be the airplane’s economics: for development and production as well as operation.
The idea is the NMA shall have “twin aisle comfort with single aisle economics.” We will now use or performance model to analyze if the final aircraft has these characteristics.
Summary:
- An NMA designed to the principles in our articles will have a seven abreast dual aisle cabin. The cabin will increase passenger comfort in the 200 to 260 seat range and speed ground operations.
- Careful design of the fuselage, paired with a modern wing and engines, would produce an NMA with “dual aisle comfort and single aisle economics.”
Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After defining the fuselage and wings, it’s now time for the engines. We go through the sizing criteria for engines for airliners and find the size of engine that is needed for the NMA.
The NMA will need engines which are larger than the single aisle engines for Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX. But they will be smaller than the next size up for modern engines, the GEnx-2B for Boeing’s 747-8.
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
This means the NMA will need new engines, at least 50% larger than the present engines designed for A320neo and 737 MAX.
Summary:
- An NMA engine will be sized by V2 safety speed or Maximum Continuous Thrust (MCT) criteria.
- The normal Top of Climb (ToC) sizing point will be less stressing for a twin engine airliner like NMA.
Asian airline shift portends big ramifications
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Introduction
April 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: A shift is underway among Asian airlines that could have ramifications for the airframe and engine manufacturers and, by extension, their suppliers.
It doesn’t appear, however, that aerospace analysts in the US and Europe realize this shift. At least none has written about it that we’ve seen among the research notes we receive.
Summary
- The creation of the Value Alliance of Low Cost Carriers brings together eight LCCs under one alliance.
- AirAsia faces a competitive threat.
- Full service carriers also face a threat, particularly those in Japan, concludes one aerospace analyst team in the region.
- Airbus, Boeing have a backlog of more than 1,000 airplanes with the VALCC group and hundreds more with other airlines.
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Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 4?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week we finished the sizing of the fuselage for an NMA design. Now we continue with the wing. We go through the key parameters that will decide the performance of the wing and the aircraft.
The NMA is a critical design case. The performance envelope has to be just right. Too high and the economics of the aircraft won’t work, both for purchase price and operational costs.
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
Summary:
- Wing design is the mixing of conflicting requirements to a successful compromise.
- The NMA wing will use the design principles of the Boeing 787/777X wings but will be different in area, size and plan-form.
- The wing is sizing the engines, something we will look at in the next article.
7M7 is key to Boeing’s future
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Introduction
An enthusiast’s concept of the Boeing 797. Image via Google.
April 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing faces growing challenges this year as airplane sales slow, production of the 777 Classic declines, its new Global Services unit prepares to formally launch and a decision whether to authorize a sales offering for the New Midrange Airplane looms.
We’ve spent a lot of time covering slowing sales and declining 777 production. Tomorrow, we’ll have a special report on the ambitious Global Services strategy.
We’ve also spent a lot of time on the Boeing NMA. LNC’s Bjorn Fehrm last week presented number three in a paywall series on the NMA, looking at it from a technical viewpoint. We’ll take a look at it from a strategic point of view today.
Summary
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Posted on April 24, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Leeham News and Comment, Middle of the Market, MOM, Premium
737-10, 737-9, 747-8, 787, 787-8, 787-9, 7M7, A321LR, A321NEO, A330-200, A330-800, A380, A400M, Airbus, Boeing