Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Russian-Chinese wide-body: background and outlook
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 21, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The discussions around a joint Russian and Chinese development of a 250-300 seat wide-body has been going on for years.
The project got a more concrete form at President Putin’s visit to China in June. On the 25th of June visit, an inter-governmental agreement to develop and market the aircraft was signed.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
At the same time Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) agreed to establish a joint venture for the program.
What market is this aircraft trying to address and will it become a serious player in the wide-body market? Will it give the duopoly Airbus/Boeing something to worry about?
We will address these questions in a series of articles. Before going into the questions around the wide-body program, we will look at the players, UAC and COMAC. Are they up to the job of making a competitive wide-body aircraft?
Summary:
- Russia and China enter the wide-body project with widely different knowledge bases.
- China’s first airliner project, ARJ21, just received local certification after years of delays.
- Russia has produced over 10,000 airliners and has made two generations of wide-body aircraft in the size category.
- The latest wide-body aircraft, Ilyushin IL-96, is on the level of Airbus A340-300 from a technological basis.
ExIm remains blocked by one US Senator
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Introduction
Aug. 18, 2016, © Leeham Co. The US Congress reauthorized the ExIm Bank after a long effort to kill the institution. But the Bank remains out of business for transactions for more than $10m. This means Boeing can’t use the Bank for export financing for purchasers of its 7-Series airplanes.
Why?
Because the Bank doesn’t have a quorum for its Board of Directors.
Why?
Because one US Senator is blocking appointments that would put the Bank back in business.
Who is this Senator?
US Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) is the lone senator blocking the US ExIm Bank from approving credit support for more than $10m. Boeing was a large beneficiary of ExIm support. Shelby is a supporter of the Airbus A320 plant in Mobile (AL). Photo via Google images.
Richard Shelby of Alabama. Shelby once supported ExIm Bank. Now he doesn’t.
According to news reports, Shelby became a convert to the extreme right’s view that ExIm is a form of corporate welfare and Boeing is its primary recipient. Boeing doesn’t need this support, Bank opponents say.
LNC believes there might be another reason.
Alabama is where Boeing rival Airbus opened an A320 assembly plant last year.
Summary
- Airbus had an advantage over Boeing with ExIm Bank shut down—until Airbus ran into its own export financing issues.
- Boeing has a defense unit in Huntsville (AL).
- Emerging Boeing rival Bombardier retains export credit financing support.
What’s happened to the VLA sector?
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Introduction
Aug. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing says it may discontinue the 747 program.
Airbus put the A380neo on indefinite hold. Qantas Airways says it doesn’t want its last eight orders. The OEM will reduce the production to 12/yr in 2018.
There haven’t been any Boeing 777X sales since June 2015. There are only six identified customers and there has been a new, identified customer added since July
Boeing is considering a larger 777-10, which will carry 50 more passengers than the 777-9. But is there a market? Boeing photo via Google images.
2014, when ANA ordered the X.
Sales have dried up for the 365 passenger Boeing 777-300ER and only a smattering of orders have come in for its competitor, the Airbus A350-1000.
What’s happened to the Very Large Aircraft sector? What’s happened to the large, medium twin aircraft sector?
Summary
- The VLA market pioneered by Boeing and pursued by Airbus is virtually nonexistent.
- Yet there are those in Boeing who want to launch a 450-passenger 777-10 into a dubious market demand.
- 777 Classic sales dried up, but A350-1000 isn’t doing great, either. Are these too big, too?
Irkut MC-21-200 deepened analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August11, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In February we did the first analysis of the Irkut MC-21-200. The analysis was made on the first data available. During the Farnborough Air Show, we got more information around the MC-21 and could see that an update of our first analysis was called for.
Figure 1. MC-21-200, the smaller varaint of the MC-21. Source: Irkut
At the time we compared the MC-21-200 to Airbus A320 and concluded they are about the same size. With the new information, we could see that there is a size difference.
Summary:
- The MC-21-200 is close to Airbus A320neo in external dimensions, a bit smaller in the cabin and has lower take-off weights.
- Irkut, the OEM, suggested standard two class capacity is 132 seats. This is with space to spare in several places.
- To make a fair efficiency comparison with the A320neo, we develop an optimized cabin for the MC-21-200.
Boeing slightly leads Airbus in YTD orders
Aug. 8, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing continues to lead Airbus in the race for orders post-Farnborough Air Show (FIA), but there are key orders announced there that haven’t been booked on the two OEMs order books.
Boeing hasn’t booked most of the firm orders yet from Volga Dnepr/Air Bridge Cargo announced at the show for 747-8Fs. Airbus hasn’t booked the 100 announced orders for A320s from AirAsia. Boeing also announced some 737 MAX orders that need to be firmed up into contracts before booking to its website.
The AirBridge orders will be closely watched. Boeing said at Farnborough that the MOU for 20 747-8Fs announced at the Paris Air Show a year earlier were now a firm contract, over six years. But Boeing and AirBridge did not say how many were firm orders, other than to identify four aircraft that were previously delivered under leases as part of the 20.
Reuters believes that 13 of the 20 are firm. Those four previous deliveries appear to be part of the 13, but this is unclear. Airfinance Journal reported that seven of the 20 will be taken by Boeing Capital Corp and leased to AirBridge. If true, this adds about $1bn to the Boeing balance sheet for customer financing.
This detail is important because AirBridge is very possibly the last customer that will order the 747-8. Boeing said it now has a backlog to 2019, but because the Airbridge transaction remains murky at best, the details are equally murky.
Drilling down into details of the orders placed through July:
Read more
Irkut MC-21-300 analysis, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August04, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: With the classification of the Irkut MC-21-300 done in terms of its size segment (it’s close to the Boeing 737 MAX 9 in size) and the key data of the aircraft analyzed, it’s now time to look at aircraft efficiency and payload-range performance.
Figure 1. MC-21-300 prototype on the final assembly line. Source: Irkut
We will do this with two cabin configurations for the aircraft. The first will be the nominal two class seating as proposed by the OEMs. For the second, we use a single class layout with 30-inch seat pitch.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has problems to compete with the re-engined 737 MAX 9 in terms of efficiency when using the standard two class cabins.
- When we switch to a single class high density layout, the fuel efficiency improves. The MC-21-300 exit concept is then more similar to the MAX 9, which affects efficiency in a positive way.
Irkut MC-21; we look at the MC-21-300, Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 01, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: After having found the nearest competitor to the Irkut MC-21-300 as the Boeing 737 MAX 9 in our first article, we now go deeper in the comparison of the two aircraft.
Figure 1. MC-21-300 at the roll out in June 2016. Source: Irkut
In the first article, we found that the aircraft have almost identical cabin dimensions. Now we will look at other areas like airframe dimensions, weights and data which dictate overall performance.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has cabin dimensions which are very close to the 737 MAX 9.
- The nominal two class seating by Irkut is lower than the MAX 9. We have assumed that this will increase during the lifetime of the MC-21.
- We also compare other data between the MC-21-300 and the MAX 9, such as weights, wetted areas and effective wingspans to see if these are similar as well. In the end these dictate the aircraft’s efficiency together with the engines.
IRKUT MC-21; we look at the MC21-300.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 28, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In February we did a first analysis of the new Irkut MC-21 single aisle aircraft that Russia is developing. We found that the aircraft has its own profile; it’s not a copy of a Western design. Irkut is the company within Russia’s United Aircraft group which is developing MC-21 (or rather, its design bureau, Yakovlev, is). Irkut has also gone its own way in sizing the aircraft.
Figure 1. MC-21-300 at the roll out in June 2016. Source: Irkut.
In our February analysis, we found that the first aircraft being developed, the MC-21-300, is larger than both the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 MAX 8, the present top sellers in the single aisle market. At the time, we decided to analyze the aircraft which was closest to those two in size, MC-21-200, which is the second variant in development. We will now look at the larger MC-21-300 (Figure 1), the aircraft which rolled out in June and which will fly early next year.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has its own profile; it is not a copy of a Western aircraft. It has a wider cabin than the A320 and a higher capacity in its base variant, the MC-21-300.
- The MC-21-300 is smaller than an A321. It most closely resembles a Boeing 737 MAX 9 in size. We will therefore conduct the analysis of the MC-21-300 by comparing it to the largest Boeing MAX variant.
Interview with Rob Dewar: CSeries in service reliability
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier”s CSeries project has passed one hurdle after another during its development. The last one was the lack of Marquee customers on top of launch customer SWISS. This has now been solved with large orders from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines.
There is one hurdle remaining: what will be the aircraft’s reliability when it enters into service (EIS)?. We did the EIS interview with CSeries VP and program manager Rob Dewar only two days before the CS100 aircraft would fly its first operational sectors with Swiss last Friday. This autumn, airBaltic will put the larger CS300 into service.
Figure 1. Bombardier’s program manager for the CSeries, Rob Dewar. Source: Bombardier
Summary
- The CSeries has been designed for in service reliability from the outset of the project.
- Systems and solutions have been primarily chosen for the in-service maturity on other platforms.
- Any deviation from this philosophy, like for Fly-By-Wire, Geared Turbo Fan or Electrical brakes, requires that the technology earn its place in the project by bringing unique advantages.
Dearth of wide-body order hang over Airbus, Boeing
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Introduction
July 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It wasn’t a good two weeks for wide-body airplanes.
Airbus, responding to a leak to the Paris newspaper La Tribune, confirmed it will reduce production for the A380 from 20/yr in 2017 to 12/yr in 2018—returning the program to a loss.
Boeing firmed up an MOU announced at the Paris Air Show with Volga Dnepr for 20 747-8Fs, but wouldn’t say how many are firm orders and how many are options.
Week 2: Boeing took nearly $1.7bn in after-tax write downs for the 787 and 747-8 programs.
And, while not directly tied to wide-bodies per se, Delta Air Lines announced it will reduce its trans-Atlantic services for a variety of reasons. Most of these services are performed with wide-body aircraft.
Summary
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Posted on July 25, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Leeham News and Comment, Premium
747-8, 787-10, 787-9, A350-900, A380, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Emirates Airline, Volga-Dnepr