Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 2?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the first part of our investigation on how good an NMA can be, we explored low weight and drag fuselage design. We will now continue with the design consequences for the fuselage construction and the cabin.
What drives whether one goes for an Aluminum or CFRP (Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer) fuselage?
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200 pictured). Source: United.
What will be the typical dimensions for an NMA fuselage and what will be passenger capacities?
Summary:
- An elliptical fuselage will force a CFRP design.
- The fuselage door configuration will be critical for cabin capacity and flexibility.
CSeries wrapping up London City certification
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier (BBD) CSeries did the last flights of a six-month London City Airport certification last week. The CS100, when certified for London City, will more than double the available payload/range out of the airport. In fact, it can reach New York direct with 40 business passengers on-board, something it demonstrated when it left the airport for JFK on the Saturday.
Figure 1. CS100 taking off for a validation flight at London City Airport. Source: Bombardier.
The aircraft was designed for this performance level from the outset. By designing the CSeries with engines and aerodynamics for the larger CS300, the smaller CS100 became a stellar take-off performer, providing short-field capabilities for London City and other urban airports.
Despite the design for London City, it took Bombardier six months to certify CS100 for the airport. We spoke to CSeries VP Rob Dewar about the challenges and the changes needed to the aircraft to meet the demands of London City.
Summary:
- CS100 doubles the payload-range performance out of London City Airport (LCY)
- Validation flights by SWISS pilots in the week confirmed CSeries suitability for LCY. SWISS should know; it has flown the CSeries predecessor (BAE 146) for years into London City.
- The adaptation for the airport has not degraded normal performance. CSeries performance is better than announced and brochure performance will soon see its second upgrade.
- To finish of the validation flights, BBD flew the difficult westward leg London City-New York JFK direct, with a payload representing 40 passengers in business class.
Could an NMA be made good enough?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After showing there exists an NMA (New Midrange Aircraft) gap, the next question follows: Can an aircraft be made for the segment that can carve out a big enough slice to make it a worthwhile effort?
It’s a tough question. Any new aircraft will cost at least $10bn to develop for the airframe alone. To this one shall add the engine development. There exists no suitable engine for such an aircraft. To motivate the investments, the aircraft has to bring a substantial performance improvement compared to existing aircraft. Can it?
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
We go through the key areas that can bring improvements and check if enough progress can is made until an NMA entry into service in 2024 or 2025.
Summary:
- Existing aircraft are either too little or too much aircraft to fill an NMA role.
- By careful design choices, especially for the fuselage, a new aircraft can achieve the required performance.
Major fleet decisions may not be positive for Airbus, Boeing
Pontifications is off this week.
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Introduction
March 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: There are some major fleet decisions that will probably come down the pike this year at American, Delta and United airlines. Not all of them are going to be viewed positively by Airbus and Boeing.
There is also a serious warning sign emerging from the Middle East that could have serious, negative impacts on Airbus and Boeing.
Summary
- American Airlines doesn’t want its Airbus A350-900s any more. Consolidation with US Airways appears to have made these surplus.
- Delta Air Lines, which so far eschewed any orders for the Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes, is understood to be readying a Request for Proposals to be issued this year.
- United Airlines doesn’t want its Airbus A350-1000s any more. Picking up cheap Boeing 777-300ERs appear to have made these surplus.
- Emirates Airlines, reacting to Brexit and Donald Trump’s travel bans, is undertaking a full business review in response to a sharp drop in bookings.
CDB Leasing aims for 500-600 aircraft portfolio
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Introduction
March 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: China’s evolving commercial aerospace and aviation industry has high-profile companies such as AVIC and COMAC, and its expanding supplier based, combined with joint ventures with Western companies is well known.
Less well known is the growth in the aircraft leasing business. Increasingly, Chinese lessors are showing up on the order lists of the Big Four aircraft manufacturers. Still, there remains a bit of a mystery about the lessors and dynamics within China.
LNC spoke with the newly appointed CEO of CDB Leasing during the ISTAT conference last week in San Diego.
Peter Chang has been in the Western leasing business for decades, employed in key positions with Aviation Capital Group, ILFC and Aircastle—usually with responsibility for China.
He was named CEO of CDB in December, a move that was announced during the January Dublin conferences of Airlines Economics and Airfinance Journal. More key personnel announcements were made during ISTAT.
In an exclusive interview, LNC asked Chang about the origins of CDB, other Chinese lessors, the current policy of restricting flow of Chinese cash outside the country, the Boeing 737-10 and the Bombardier CSeries.
Here is this interview.
Long-haul cost differences
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The single-aisle, long-haul operations are on the increase. The new re-engined Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX generations are good for destinations of up to 3,000 nm, after taking into account reserves, winds and alternates planning. The Airbus A321LR is good for up to 3,500nm sectors.
Last week, we showed the Bombardier CS300 is joining the crop of single-aisles capable of 3,000nm city pairs, the distance between London and New York.
We also wrote the cost level of the single-aisle aircraft is competitive with the next step up dual-aisle, the Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo.
But how do the different cost areas pan out? Is fuel cheaper or more expensive for the dual-aisle? What about the single-aisle crew costs? For clarity, we engage our cost model.
Summary
- The total costs are similar per seat mile for single and dual aisle, but the parts are not.
- The fuel costs per seat are surprisingly similar; the differences are to find in other places.
CSeries trans-Atlantic capability
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We previously described how new generation engines make the Boeing 737 MAX 8 a trans-Atlantic aircraft. The MAX 8 is smaller than the Airbus A321LR, but not the smallest single-aisle with trans-Atlantic capability. This distinction goes to the Bombardier CSeries.
We wrote about the CS100 capability to cross the Atlantic from London City Airport last year. After the article, we received new and improved data from Bombardier. The CS100 can now fly directly to US East Coast on the difficult westward leg with a business cabin of 42 seats. The updated article is here.
When we look at the improved capabilities of the CS300 (announced at Farnborough Air show last summer), this aircraft can also cross the Atlantic with a full cabin of 130 passengers.
Bombardier arranged so we could discuss this deeper with the VP CSeries program, Rob Dewar.
Summary:
- We use our aircraft performance model to compare the CS300’s suitability for long-haul to the Airbus and Boeing competition.
- The aircraft have similar range and seat mile costs. The smaller aircraft have lower trip costs.
- With Rob Dewar, we explored the potential for additional capability for the CS300.