Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
HOTR: Somewhat stabilizing twin-aisle lease rates
By the Leeham News Staff
Sept. 22, 2020, © Leeham News: Ishka, the UK-based appraisal and consultancy firm, Thursday published its update of values and rents for 5-year old, twin-aisle aircraft. After a significant reduction since the beginning of the year, lease rates seem to be stabilizing.
Airbus announces zero-emission airliner concepts.
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 21, 2020, © Leeham News: Airbus held a webcast today, announcing three zero-emission airliner concepts called the ZEROe line (Figure 1). The two conventional designs, the turbofan airliner and the turboprop use hydrogen as the fuel for their gas turbine engines. The blended wing-body is a more futuristic concept where propulsion technology was not specified.
The idea is to use these concepts as work paths to explore the technologies around them and their aerodynamic characteristics. The concepts “are not products” underlined Airbus EVP development Jean-Brice Dumont. “It’s rather examples of designs around which the technologies can be explored and results compared. After concepts follow demonstrators and then products.”
Figure 1. Airbus ZEROe (e for emission) concepts. Source: Airbus.
A lost decade for aircraft manufacturers, suppliers
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Introduction
By Judson Rollins, Bjorn Fehrm & Scott Hamilton
Sept. 21, 2020, © Leeham News: Commercial aviation is facing a lost decade due to COVID.
Yes, most forecasts target 2024-2025 as returning to 2019 passenger traffic and aircraft production levels.
However, LNA in July published its own analysis indicating full recovery may not occur until 2028. Breathless headlines notwithstanding, it will take years for vaccines to be widely available and considered safe by enough of the world’s population. Growing concern about vaccine production and distribution capacity through 2024 underscores this view. Even Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly said earlier this month that business travel might not fully return for a decade.
Indeed, the 2020s may well be a lost decade for aircraft manufacturers and their supply chains.
Summary
- Debt-laden airlines will have little money to order new airplanes
- Interest in re-engined 787, A350 likely nil this decade
- Airbus, Boeing, Embraer have little interest in launching new programs
- Engine makers too financially stretched to develop new designs
- Engineering talent, knowledge will be decimated by inevitable job reductions
- OEMs must “play the long game” at a short-term cost to safeguard their futures
Pontifications: Last production DC-6 destined to USA
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 21, 2020, © Leeham News: A Texas man with an affinity for the Douglas DC-6 purchased the last production model, DC-6B that is still in its original passenger configuration.
The last Douglas DC-6 produced has been stored since 2010. It’s now owned by a Texas man. Source: DC-6 Association of Africa.
The DC-6B, delivered in the waning months of 1958, is the sister ship to the famous Red Bull DC-6B that continues to be flown occasionally at air shows.
This DC-6B, registration V5-NCG, has been stored in Namibia since 2010. It once was the presidential airplane for Yugoslav’s leader, Marshal Josip Tito. The plane was then donated to the Zambian government as the presidential aircraft for Kenneth Kuanda. This aircraft and the sister ship were purchased by Namibian Commercial Airlines (NCA). The sister ship, the second-to-the-last built, was sold to Red Bull. The proceeds were used to restore V5-NCG.
More recently, it served in tourist charter work. The aircraft has the original interior. This is a rarity in restored piston airliners.
James Mac Ivor owns Nighthawk Air Systems Inc. near San Antonio. COVID-19 delayed plans to return the airplane to the air. He also still must raise funds.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 9. Hydrogen Gas Turbines
September 18, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on hydrogen as an energy store for airliners we analyze the conversion of the present Turbofan and Turboprop airliner engines to hydrogen as fuel instead of carbon-based fuels.
We know it’s possible as the world’s first jet engine from 1937 ran on hydrogen, Figure 1. But what are the problems and how good are the hydrogen-fueled engines in efficiency and emissions?
Figure 1. The world’s first jet engine, Hans von Ohain’s He S-1. The engine’s aerodynamics is pictured below the cut-through. Note the skewed hydrogen injector at c. Source: Wikipedia.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 7, The A380
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
All Nippon Airways’ Flying Honu A380 livery
Sep. 17th, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of the A340-600 and the 777-300ER on the Los Angeles to Shanghai route. We now turn our attention to the last major bet on a quad-engine aircraft, Airbus’ Superjumbo A380.
Summary
- An extended market study to go after the Queen of the Skies;
- Supersized launch and development;
- A program on life support for several years;
- What went wrong;
- Analyzing two-stage Boeing response on a trunk route.
HOTR: Adjusting Airbus and Boeing orderbooks
By the Leeham News Staff
Sept. 15, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing has removed hundreds of 737 MAX orders from its order book. While some were direct cancellations from customers, most came through ASC 606 adjustments.
Airbus does not publish such order adjustments by aircraft program in its monthly order and deliveries report. The European OEM publishes a total outstanding amount of contracts for commercial aircraft in its annual reports. However, the figure does not have a breakdown by program.
As a result, Airbus and Boeing order books aren’t an apple to apple comparison. The COVID-induced traffic slump has had a significant impact on airlines’ financial situation. Therefore, adjusting order books is necessary to assess an aircraft program’s backlog situation.
Pontifications: Boeing SC makes its case for 787 production consolidation—and it favors Everett
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 14, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing’s South Carolina 787 final assembly plant has made its case whether to consolidate production in one location, or not.
The conclusion favors retaining dual assembly lines, retaining one in Everett.
This click-bait lead doesn’t mean Boeing SC management favors retaining dual assembly lines. Far from it.
Why is the 737 MAX safe now when it wasn’t before?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 14, 2020, © Leeham News: The FAA and EASA Safety of Flight authorities have examined and test flown the changes Boeing has done to the 737 MAX to make it safe to fly again. Everything points to these authorities re-certifying the 737 MAX as safe to fly in the coming months.
In a Saturday article Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times quotes from a recent interview with me and an experienced 737 Captain, Mike Gerzanics, where we both say we consider the MAX safe to fly with the changes.
Here my reasons as an aeronautical engineer why I think so.
Summary
- The original design of a smoothing software for the 737 MAX flight control system was badly implemented.
- It’s not the changes to the 737 MAX base aircraft that makes it unsafe, such as larger engines, it was an unusually sloppy implementation of the smoothing software, called MCAS, that was flawed.
- MCAS is now properly implemented and tested. This returns the 737 to the safe aircraft it was before MCAS was implemented.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 8. Fuel cell electric or Turbofan propulsion?
September 11, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on Hydrogen as an energy store for airliners we look at whether we use an LH2 burning Turbofan as propulsion or as the EU study proposed, a Parallel Hybrid feed by a fuel cell, Figure 1.
Figure 1. The Parallel Hybrid 165 seat aircraft from the EU Hydrogen study. Source: EU.