Bjorn’s Corner: Pitch stability, Part 7

By Bjorn Fehrm

Jan. 25, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We have covered the pitch stability for an airliner including some well know problems around deep stall.

We now continue with other frequent problems as the aircraft covers a large envelope in speed and altitude.

Figure 1. The pitch moment coefficient curve of an early DC-9 candidate. Read more

Boeing’s 777X analyzed

By Bjorn Fehrm

Subscription Required

Introduction

January 24, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing will roll out the first 777X flight test aircraft mid-spring. The first aircraft, the static test airframe, was rolled out in September. Flight-testing should start in the early summer and first delivery is expected mid-2020.

With certification and delivery 18 months away it’s time to look at the project and understand where the 777X positions itself versus the competition.

Figure 1. First flight test Boeing 777-9 with the GE9X engines mounted. Source: Boeing.

Summary:
  • The 777X achieves better fuel consumption per seat despite a larger and heavier airframe thanks to more advanced wings and engines.
  • We compare its design to the 777-300ER and the Airbus A350-1000 competitor.

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Look at entire portfolio when investing in sub-types, Airbus and Boeing say

Jan. 23, 2019, © Leeham News, Dublin: Investors and lessors should take into account the entire product line offered by Airbus and Boeing when considering sub-types that may have few sales to date, officials of the two companies said at the annual conference in Dublin organized by Airfinance Journal.

Tim Myers, president of Boeing Capital Corp., and Mark Pearman-Wright, Head of Leasing & Investor Marketing for Airbus, said the 737-7, 737-9, 737-10, A319neo, A321LR, A330-800 and the new 777X should be looked at in context of the entire 737, A320, A330 and 777 lines when making investment decisions.

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Rolls-Royces sees NMA “addressable” market as 4,000-5,000, same as Boeing

Jan. 22, 2019, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce sees an “addressable” market for the Middle of the Market Aircraft at between 4,000 and 5,000 over 20 years—the same size Boeing sees.

But at the Airfinance Journal annual conference today in Dublin, an executive declined to be specific about the details of this assessment.

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Rolls sees end of Trent 1000 issues, but a spike in 787 AOG possible

Jan. 22, 2019, © Leeham News, Dublin: Rolls-Royce faces an uptick in Boeing 787s that may become “aircraft on the ground” (AOG) as inspections of Trent 1000s spike in the coming months.

But Richard Goodhead, SVP Marketing, Rolls-Royce, says the worst is behind the company and the airlines—even though it will be a few years before engine part replacements are fully integrated into the global fleet.

There are more than 100 Boeing 787 Trent 1000 customers. About 20 have issues.

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Additive manufacturing explained

By Anna Kucirkova

Special to Leeham News

Introduction

Jan. 22, 2019, © Leeham News: A lot of changes have taken place in the manufacturing industry over the years.

Anna Kucirkova

Just a few decades ago, the concept of manufacturing products from your home seemed impossible. If you wanted a product, then you had to purchase it or request a company to produce it for you.

Now you can purchase a machine, set it in your house and produce what you desire with the help of a computer. What used to cost manufacturing firms huge capital can now be built at a lower price in your home.

So what changed? This article will explore some notable changes that have shaped the manufacturing industry to where it is today.

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Leeham News and Comment is now Leeham News and Analysis

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: As Leeham News begins its 11th year, we’ve undertaken some changes consistent with the rebranding of our affiliate, Leeham Co. Leeham Co. celebrates its 20th anniversary this year.

Our rebranding research last year illuminated an important distinction that led to a name change. Leeham News and Comment is now Leeham News and Analysis (LNA).

The new name more accurately reflects Leeham News’ approach to covering commercial aviation news by drawing on our expertise to tell you what it means.

Because we believe there’s more to real news than publishing a news release, we serve our readers with higher value news by spotting emerging trends, adding historical perspective and delving into the analysis behind the headlines.

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Celebrating 20 years for Leeham Co.

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: It was 20 years ago, 1999, that Leeham Co. was founded and nine years later, Leeham News published its first blog.

What a time it’s been.

Creating Leeham Company.

Leeham Co. was created after my partner and I sold a British company, Linkraven Ltd., publisher of Commercial Aviation Report, Commercial Aviation Value Report and organizer of international conferences under the Commercial Aviation Events brand. Linkraven had been in business for 10 years.

As a certified aviation addict (once you have kerosene in the blood, you’re addicted for life), I couldn’t walk away from an industry in which I got my start in 1979 with the first Midway Airlines.

Leeham Co. began as a consulting company to leasing companies. Eventually it evolved and expanded into the supply chain. Today, Leeham Co. serves the supply chain, lessors, advisors and manufacturers, just to name a few. We evaluate aircraft economics, develop product and market strategies, analyze market demand and serve other areas related to the industry.

A full list of Leeham Co.’s services may be found here.

Time to Rebrand

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Countdown to decision on Boeing’s NMA, Part 3: Engine selection

By Dan Catchpole

Subscription Required

Introduction

January 21 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing number crunchers are feverishly working through engine bids from Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and CFM International, the partnership of Safran and General Electric (GE), the three competitors vying to power Boeing’s New Midmarket Airplane (NMA). Boeing is expected to ask for a best and final offer by the end of January, with engine selection planned in February.

That gives Boeing enough time to get authority to offer from the board of directors, likely in March or April, and to launch the NMA (likely as the 797) at the Paris Air Show in June.

Boeing faces big challenges in closing the business case, though. The process has slogged on far longer than company leaders had expected. Even so, Boeing executives’ relentless optimism about the NMA business case stands in sharp contrast to the skepticism of many industry insiders. At least two of the engine makers, for example, think market demand is about half of Boeing’s public forecast.

Each of the three engine makers vying to get on the NMA have some significant liability. The industry insiders and analysts interviewed for this article say is the decision really comes down to Pratt and CFM. Given the pressures on NMA business case, many see a scaled-up CFM Leap as the front runner. It offers the least risk, even if it also has the least upside.

Summary:
  • CFM: The LEAP has performed well since going into service, but GE’s financial troubles could weigh down its bid.
  • Pratt & Whitney: PW’s GTF is a great fit for NMA requirements, but the engine maker has a full plate with the GTF on five new airplane programs.
  • Rolls-Royce: The NMA would be an opportunity to launch Rolls’ UltraFan, but does Boeing want to bet on a completely new engine?

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Pontifications: The Airbus North America Tour

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: Last week’s Airbus North America Tour (#AirbusNATour on Twitter) was a whirlwind 2 ½ days encompassing Montreal Mirabel, Columbus (MS) and Mobile (AL).

To those who don’t follow Airbus Americas closely, the Mississippi stop might be a puzzle. I’ll come back to this to explain why an international group of media, including me, made this trek.

Let’s start with Montreal.

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