Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
Pontifications: Pilots train for instrumentation mismatches
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 5, 2018, © Leeham News: It was a week ago that Lion Air JT 610 crashed into the sea, just 13 minutes after takeoff.
The crash was the first involving the Boeing 737 MAX (in this case, the -8 model). The airplane was virtually new, having been delivered to the airline in August. Lion Air was not new to the 737, having flown the NG models for years.
Because the airplane crashed into the sea, recovery of the black boxes was not quick. The flight data recorder was recovered several days later but the cockpit voice recorder is still missing. The FDR data apparently has not yet been downloaded for a preliminary read. At least nothing has been made public, if it has. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Supersonic transport revival, Part 13
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 2, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In last week’s Corner we looked deeper into the fundamentals of the Mach 1.4 engine of Aerion’s AS2 SST, the GE Affinity.
Now we start looking at engines for a faster SST, up to the Mach 2.2 of the Boom Supersonic project.
Figure 1. The GE Affinity medium bypass Turbofan for Aerion AS2. Source: GE.
How useful is an NMA, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 1, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we looked at how a Boeing NMA would function as a medium range airliner in the Asia-Pacific.
We now continue with flying the two aircraft variants from Middle East locations, exploring how large an area in Asia, Europe and Africa the aircraft would cover.
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The profile of an NMA fits well in a Middle East Carrier’s fleet. Dependent on location it covers all of Europe and most of Africa and Asia.
- As the NMA is a lesser aircraft than the present long-range aircraft used on the routes it would have impressive economics for this type of operation.
Airbus fights delivery challenges on several fronts
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 31, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus announced 3Q 2018 results today. The company is wrestling with delivery problems for several of its aircraft programs. Its inventory of finished aircraft which can’t be delivered has increased by €5bn as a result.
On the positive side is a smooth running A350 program and that the A220 program, which is consolidated into Airbus for the first time, seems void of unpleasant surprises.
Areas of inquiry in Lion Air crash
Oct. 29, 2018, (c) Leeham News: A three month old Boeing 737-8 MAX crashed into the sea yesterday.
There are scant clues.
A technical fault was reported the day before the flight, which was unspecified in the news reports LNC has seen. It was said to have been corrected.
Flight tracking showed a rapid descent into the water. One news story reported the pilot radioed he wanted to return due to something, but this is vague and unconfirmed.
It is far too early to speculate what happened to the airplane. There is just too much we don’t know, other than FlightTracker showed what appeared to be a rapid descent into the water.
Here’s what investigations will consider—all as a matter of the normal course of any investigation. This is not listed in priority.
Airbus’ disadvantages in widebody campaigns
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Introduction
Oct. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus faces a key disadvantage when it comes to winning current wide-body campaigns against Boeing.
The disadvantage is entirely out of its control.
It’s not about whether the A330neo or A350 vs the 787 economics are out of kilter. They’re not.
It’s about the engines, LNC is told by multiple market sources. Specifically Rolls-Royce engines, which exclusively power the Airbus wide-bodies.
Summary
- Airlines affected by Rolls-Royce-powered 787 problems are hopping mad.
- The negative halo effect puts questions over the Trent 7000-powered A330neo.
- While less affected, there is a negative halo effect over the Trent XWB-powered A350.
- Airlines considering follow-on ordered of 787s are ready to jump from RR to GE.
Pontifications: Engines, engines, engines
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Engines, engines, engines.
News emerged last week that Rolls-Royce admitted its continuing problems with the Trent 1000 that powers the Boeing 787 now bled over to the Trent 7000.
RR will fall short of delivering the number of engines need to Airbus for the A330neo, meaning fewer deliveries of the airplane this year.
Boeing said it is clearing its inventory of 737 MAXes, but CFM LEAP engines are still late, slowing the effort.
Pratt & Whitney’s GTF engine deliveries to Airbus are caught up, but technical issues still plague in-service engines. CFM still has technical issues as well, though not as severe or persistent as with GTF, with its LEAP engines. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Supersonic transport revival, Part 12
October 26, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the previous Corner we discussed the noise challenge an SST engine has. To be effective at Supersonic speed it needs a high Specific Thrust (a fast jet out the back) but this creates Takeoff and Landing noise.
We now look at some key data for SST engines.
Figure 1. The GE Affinity medium bypass Turbofan for Aerion AS2. Source: GE.
How useful is an NMA, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
October 25, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we looked at the trans-Atlantic capabilities for a Boeing NMA. We could see West Europe to East US worked fine, but then it quickly became sensitive to bad Winter weather on the Westward routes when we wanted to fly further.
Now we look at what works and not for Asia-Pacific, an important market for the NMA.
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The NMA is not ideal for the trans-Atlantic US to Europe market. Its reach is too limited.
- The Asian market works better as long as routes to “Down Under” are not considered.
Boeing reports strong 3Q results
Oct. 24, 2018: Boeing reported a stronger than expected third quarter when it announced financial results today.
The press release is here.
The stock was up more than 3% ($10.87) in early morning trading.
Wall Street analysts issued these quick notes ahead of the earnings call: