Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
VLA era is over; are 777X, A350-1000 too large?
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: The era of the Very Large Aircraft appears over.
The Boeing 747 passenger airliner, while nominally still offered for sale, is in reality dead.
The Airbus A380 limps along in what may prove to be a vain hope that airport congestion will spur sales next decade.
The next level down, however, doesn’t appear very strong.
Sales of the Airbus A350-1000 stalled at 200 or less for years.
Sales of the Boeing 777X likewise stalled following program launch in 2013-2014. Although the 777X has twice as many orders as the A350-1000, fully 72% of them come from three customers, one of which is in serious financial trouble and may cancel or defer some or all its orders.
Summary
- Orders for the largest Large Twin-Aisle aircraft lag the Small and Medium Twin-Aisles.
- Big 3 in the Middle East are major customers for the 777X, A350-1000. Iran Air also buyer of -1000.
- While Big Twin languishes, small- and medium-twins remain in demand.
Read more
Pontifications: Why Embraer downplayed range of EJet
By Scott Hamilton
June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: Bjorn Fehrm on Thursday wrote (behind the paywall) that Embraer seems to be selling the E190-E2 short when it comes to range.
Embraer’s published range is 2,850nm. But Bjorn discovered that the range is truly 3,250nm, fully 14% more than the advertised range.
I laughed out loud when Bjorn told me of this discrepancy.
Why would Embraer short-change the E190-E2’s range?
The answer was obvious to me.
Bjorn’s Corner: Largest navigation change since radar
Bjorn Fehrm
June 15, 2018, ©. Leeham News: The worldwide aviation is heading for its largest navigation change since VOR and Radar was introduced after the Second World War.
When scheduled airline traffic started in the late 1920s, navigation was with maps and when the weather was bad, through Low-Frequency Radio beacons. Then the VOR and Radar were introduced. Now we will replace these as well.
Is Embraer selling the E190-E2 short?
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 14, 2018, © Leeham News: The new Embraer E190-E2 entered service with its launch operator, Norwegian Wideroe, in April. We looked at the aircraft in two December articles. At the time, we focused on the improvements in fuel consumption and maintenance costs compared with the original E190.
Recently, we used our performance model to understand the maximum range of the aircraft. We were surprised when the flight with ease sailed past Embraer’s published maximum range figures.
Summary:
- Embraer gives the maximum range of the E190-E2 as 2,850nm.
- It uses “Single class seating” to reach this range, an unusual way to specify the maximum range. Normally one uses a two-class or three-class cabin.
- When using standard methods, we calculate a range well over Embraer’s information. Is Embraer selling the E190-E2 short?
Airbus-C Series closing a “positive catalyst,” say analysts
June 13, 2018, © Leeham News: The news Friday that Airbus and Bombardier concluded the deal in which Airbus takes a 50.01% ownership in the C Series program was greeted favorably by two analyst reports LNC saw.
Credit Suisse and JP Morgan each called the approval by all regulatory authorities and closing the deal—well ahead of schedule—as positive catalysts for the C Series.
A synopsis of the two research notes are below.
The partnership becomes effective July 1, just two weeks ahead of the Farnborough Air Show.
Airbus risks losing market share if it doesn’t boost A350 production
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 11, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing is increasing the production rate of the 787 next year from 12 to 14/mo.
Airbus is reducing the production rate of the A330neo from 10 to 6/mo.
Last year, buried deep in its website, Airbus indicated plans to go to rate 13/mo, although no date was listed.
With few sales of the airplane last year or so far this year, will demand support a rate hike next year? If so, a decision is needed pretty much now to go forward.
One London-based aerospace analyst tells LNC the top executives say no rate hike will be coming.
Scheduled deliveries may lend a clue.
Summary
- Boeing is winning the wide-body order race and retaken the lead in market share.
- Airbus’ former top sales chief bemoaned the lack of delivery slots for the A350.
- Supplier issues still slow A350 deliveries.
Pontifications: Photo essay
By Scott Hamilton
June 11, 2018, (c) Leeham News: In a change of pace, here are a number of photos gathered from recent visits to museums in the US and Canada.
Lockheed L-1049 Constellation of the Airline History Museum of Kansas City Downtown Airport, Photo by Scott Hamilton.
The Lockheed L-1049 Constellation of the Airline History Museum in Kansas City is labeled the Super G, but it actually is an H model, delivered as a passenger/freighter. It was restored to G markings in TWA colors. The airplane was airworthy until 2007, when an engine fire prompted the museum to park the airplane. AHM hopes to restore the airplane to flying operation.
Airbus-C Series deal closes July 1; presents challenges for Boeing, Embraer
June 8, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus assumes its 50.01% majority stake in the Bombardier C Series program July 1, the two companies announced today.
The company is called C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.
The CS100 and CS300 may be renamed the A210 and A230, according to a previous press report.
A C Series Final Assembly Line will be constructed in Mobile (AL), next to the Airbus A320 FAL, to serve the US market.
Airbus and Bombardier will speak at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence conference June 25-27 in Mobile (AL). The C Series final assembly line will be an extension of the A320 FAL.
Airbus-C Series deal to close July 1
- Note: A press conference follows today. Here is the press release issued by Airbus and Bombardier.
Airbus, Bombardier and Investissement Québec agree C Series Partnership closing effective July 1, 2018
- Airbus to acquire majority stake in the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, effective July 1, 2018
- All regulatory approvals required for the closing of the transaction have been obtained
- Partnership head office, leadership team and primary final assembly line located in Mirabel, Québec (representing some 2,200 employees and subcontractors), with the support of the C Series global supply chain
- Partnership brings together two complementary product lines, with 100-150 seat market segment projected to represent 6,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years
- Addition of Airbus’ global reach to create significant value for C Series’ customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders and communities
- Significant C Series production efficiencies anticipated by leveraging Airbus’ production ramp-up expertise
- Growing market for C Series to support second Final Assembly Line in Alabama, serving U.S. customers
Bombardier will talk about the new C Series Final Assembly line planned for Mobile (AL) next to the Airbus A320 FAL during the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27 in Mobile.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 9
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 8, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner we discussed how a pilot uses the advanced Automatic Flight Control System (AFCS) on modern high-end business jets and airliners.
Now we will discuss what separates the high-end (and expensive) systems from the less capable we described before. It’s about flying difficult routes which contain demanding takeoffs and approaches.
Figure 1. A challenging approach where RNP based navigation is needed. Source: Wikipedia.