Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Norwegian flies in thin air
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 14, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Norwegian Air Shuttle (Norwegian) is in an aggressive expansion phase. The airline is setting up as many low-cost routes as possible across the Atlantic, to gain critical market share before the competition gets organized.
Such expansion costs money, a rare commodity at Norwegian. The company presents its 2017 results Thursday. We analyze what to expect.
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NMA demand skeptics aren’t thinking outside the box, Boeing exec says
Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Skeptics who question Boeing’s market demand forecast of 4,000 airplanes for the New Midrange Aircraft aren’t thinking “outside the box,” says Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing.
Tinseth heads up the team that prepares Boeing’s annual Current Market Outlook for the next 20 years.
Boeing’s CMO forecasts a need for about 5,900 small twin-aisle aircraft (fewer than 300 seats but larger than single-aisle airplanes of more than 200 seats). About 4,000 of these are for the NMA.
Others, including Airbus, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce and some key suppliers see the market as between 2,000 and 2,500. Leeham Co.’s own estimate is 2,300.
Global Services won’t hurt airline tech ops, says Boeing official
Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: A Boeing official today dismissed concerns that expanding Boeing Global Services, with additional controls on aftermarket support for commercial airplanes it builds, might negatively impact potential sales.
Several airlines, including Delta, Singapore, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and some Chinese carriers, operate their own MRO facilities that not only maintain their own fleets, but offer services to other airlines.
Kevin Michaels, president of the consulting firm AeroDynamics, expressed concern that Boeing’s tighter control of aftermarket parts is already leading to customer satisfaction issues at some airlines. He also said Boeing might lose airplane sales to Airbus if it is unwilling to grant MRO rights to the maintenance facilities of those carriers that operate them.
Michaels made his remarks at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance.
Boeing risks losing orders in aftermarket business push, says consultant
Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s drive to dramatically increase its aftermarket business, competing with suppliers or even controlling the parts needed by airlines for maintenance, repair and overhaul operations have a risk, says an industry consultant.
Kevin Michaels, president of AeroDynamics, said Boeing potentially could lose airplane sales if it takes too hard an approach to controlling aftermarket parts.
Michaels appeared at the 2018 annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) today in a Seattle suburb.
Pontifications: NMA, Boeing-Embraer headline Singapore Air Show
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 12, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Singapore Air Show last week produced little in the way of new orders from the Big Four airframe OEMs. ATR announced a few deals and Embraer announced a letter of intent for the KC-390 multi-role tanker-transport.
The headline news revolved around the what-ifs: Boeing and the New Midrange Aircraft and Boeing and the link-up with Embraer.
Let’s look at the NMA first.
Chinese and Russian Widebody takes shape. Part 5.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 12, 2018, © Leeham Co.: In the fourth article about the Chinese/Russian wide-body, CR929, we analyzed the engine selection for the aircraft. Now we continue with a first performance analysis of the CR929 against its main competitors, the Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A330-900.
We will use the preliminary data we have collected for the CR929 and compare this to the data for the 787-9 and A330-900. 
It’s the first analysis, on preliminary information. But there is enough knowledge of the key parameters to use our performance model to draw the first conclusions about the CR929’s positioning in the market.
Summary:
- The CR929-600 is modeled closely after the 787-9. The technology for structures, systems, engines and aerodynamics are similar.
- With a similar payload capacity, the fuel consumption should be better as the CR929 is defined with a lower maximum range.
- It’s wider cabin eats up the weight and drag advantage, however. There will be little difference between the efficiency of the 787-9 and the 15 years younger CR929.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft drag reduction, Part 16
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 9, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we discussed some further aspects of supersonic flow. Now it’s time to talk about the drag created by supersonic flow on an aircraft.
We will start with the full supersonic case this week, followed by the transonic case next week.
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Airbus, Boeing square off with A330neo, 787 in advance of NMA launch
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Introduction
Feb. 8, 2018, Leeham Co.: Boeing hasn’t launched the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, aka 797) and may not until next year.
But the maneuvering to capture, solidify or preempt moves is already well underway by Airbus and Boeing.
Reuters synopsized this during its reporting at this week’s Singapore Air Show.
This is only the tip of the iceberg.
Summary
- Boeing 787 production rate increase to 14/mo next year is, in part, a head-‘em-off-at-the-pass maneuver to prevent customers from buying the Airbus A330neo.
- The 787-8 could see a new lease on life as interim airplane.
- A330-800 has steep uphill slog.
- Airbus, Boeing face off 787, A330neo.
Next Sukhoi Superjet is a 75 seater
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 7, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: The President of Sukhoi Civil AirCraft (SCAC), Alexander Rubtsov (who is also the Sales and Marketing Manager of the civil aircraft division of Russia’s United Aircraft, UAC), told Flight Global at the Singapore Air Show there has been a decision to develop a 75-seat version of Sukhoi SuperJet (SSJ).
Sukhoi and United Aircraft have studied whether to develop a larger or smaller version of the SSJ. A Russian order for 100 of the smaller model tipped the decision to the 75-seat model.
Figure 1. SSJ100/95 from Cityjet wetleased to Brussels Airlines. Source: SCAC.
2018 an important year for wide-bodied airplanes
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Introduction
Feb. 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This will be an important year for wide-body sales in commercial aviation.
It would be overstating to say 2018 will be a pivotal year for wide-body airplanes, but there should be some important developments.
Summary
- Boeing may—or may not—launch the twin-aisle New Midrange Aircraft this year.
- Sales of the 777X remain stalled.
- Sales of the A330neo remain stalled.
- Airbus must decide whether to boost the production rate of the A350.