Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Reorganization at Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 3, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus confirmed Friday the news reports from Bloomberg and Reuters that a major organizational restructuring of the company is underway.
The Wall Street Journal had this report Friday.
Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders is leading the reorganization. Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier becomes president of the Group and president of Airbus Commercial. Other top-level changes, including at 50% owned ATR, the turbo-prop manufacturer, leaked out during the week.
As yet, nothing has been reported about the potential retirement of John Leahy, COO-Customers. Leahy turned 66 in August. It’s always been
Tom Ender, CEO of Airbus Group. Photo via Google images.
assumed he won’t leave Airbus until he’s carried out feet-first. He enjoys the hunt for new sales and he thrives on the competition “with my friends in Seattle.” Update: I missed this article from Reuters in which his deputy, Kiran Rao, is the likely successor.
But following an appearance as the featured speaker at the September Wings Club meeting, Leahy for the first time publicly waffled about his future. This begs the question, of course, who might succeed Leahy. So far, nothing has leaked about this.
Bjorn’s Corner; The Chinese civil aircraft industry
By Bjorn Fehrm.
September 30, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we will now look at the Chinese civil aircraft industry.
The Chinese aero industry has similarities with the Russian industry in its overall structure. From the start of the industry in the 1950s, it was structured after the Soviet model of research institutes, design bureaus and production companies.
The difference to the Soviet Union was that its own Chinese aircraft designs only started in the 1970s. Before that, the industry built Soviet designs on license and then modified versions of licensed designs.
The first own aircraft designs were presented in the 1980s with a focus on military designs for the first 20 years. Read more
Mitsubishi MRJ90 arrives in Washington State for certification flight testing
Sept. 29, 2016, © Leeham Co., Moses Lake (WA): After months of delays between the first flight and yesterday, the first Mitsubishi MRJ90 arrived in Moses Lake (WA) to begin certification flight testing. This is scheduled over 12-18 month.
The first Flight Test Aircraft (FTA), registration JA21MJ, left Nagoya, Japan, on the 27th and after two stops, overnighted in Anchorage. From there, the aircraft flew non-stop to Moses Lake, in Central Washington State.
Tracking the aircraft proved problematic. There were long gaps during which Flightradar24 and Flightaware had no data from the aircraft. Dedicated transponders will be put on the next three FTAs.
The MRJ90, which is running about three years late, is the first commercial aircraft developed by Japan since the NAMC YS-11 turbo-prop in the early 1960s. Mitsubishi is an industrial partner on the Boeing 787.
The MRJ90 landed at about 5:47pm local time (unofficial time) after a low-level flyby. This was followed by the traditional water cannon salute.
Videos are below the jump.
ISTAT 2016: Air transport market at cross-roads
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We visited ISTAT (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) 2016 conference in Barcelona this week. The most interesting part of the conference was the economists panel with discussions between the economist: Brian Pierce, chief economist of IATA; Peter Morris, chief economist at Ascend; and Adam Pilarski, SVP and Head of Consulting, AVITAS.
The economists agreed that the air transport market is at a cross-roads, but not which route it will take.
Let’s start with the market facts presented by IATA’s Pierce: Read more
Russian-Chinese wide-body: Program responsibilities
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We will now finish our series about the Russian-Chinese wide-body with looking at who will have what role in the program.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
As we described in the initial article, “Background and outlook,” Russia and China have vastly different competencies when it comes to making a state of the art wide-body aircraft.
Russia has made airliners since the 1930s, including wide-body jets. China did not design its own jet aircraft (military or civil) until the mid-1980s. Most of the aircraft produced still today in China have their origin in Russian designs.
At the same time, we saw in the article about the market demand for the aircraft that the Chinese market is 90% of the home market. This makes for China demanding important parts of the aircraft’s production, and China has the money to invest in production facilities.
All this will influence how different parts of the project will be shared between Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
Summary:
- Russia and China enter the wide-body project with widely different knowledge bases.
- Russia has long time knowledge on how to develop and produce aircraft and their engines.
- China on the other hand has the market for the aircraft.
- China also know a lot about serial production and have money to invest. Read more
Weekly Analyst Synopsis: Rolls, Boeing and leasing companies
Sept. 28, 2016: This week’s aerospace analyst research synopsis looks at Rolls-Royce. aircraft leasing companies and the implications to supply-and-demand, and the Iran Air order clearance by the US for Boeing.
No sanctions will be levied on Airbus and Boeing in WTO dispute
Subscription Required
Now open to all readers.
Introduction
Sept. 26, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s hazardous to use the word “never,” but the US and European Union will never impose trade sanctions or tariffs on Airbus or Boeing airplanes.
No sane president would do so. (Cue Donald Trump.) It would start a devastating trade war and the collateral damage on innocents in the Airbus-Boeing illegal subsidies disputes would be severely harmed.
Summary
- US tariffs on Airbus aircraft and EU tariffs on Boeing aircraft would hurt engine makers, suppliers—innocents in the illegal subsidy disputes.
- Some key customers order from Airbus and Boeing. Tariffs on one or the other company risk alienating these customers.
- Sanctions/tariffs permitted on other companies, industries.
- Canada, Brazil never imposed sanctions in Bombard-Embraer violations.
Pontifications: Hypocrisy and illegal subsidies at the WTO
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 26, 2016, © Leeham Co.: There are two airplanes under development that are in the 150-220 passenger space.
Both are under development by companies that get state aid and make no bones about it. The aid would likely be found in violation of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
But the most vociferous opponent to illegal subsidies hasn’t said a peep about it.
Neither has the opponent’s rival—although this company publicly recognizes the irony of it all.
I call it hypocrisy.
Bjorn’s Corner; The Russian civil aircraft engine companies
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 23, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we now look at the main Russian civil aircraft engine companies. As with the aircraft side, there is one overall Russian engine company since 2008, United Engine Corporation (UEC), Figure 1.
This is a state-owned holding which incorporates 80%of the gas turbine engine companies from the Soviet times, employing 80,000 people.
The aim is to coordinate and optimize Russia’s engineering and production resources around present and future gas turbine engines for Aeronautical, Naval and Stationary use.
Figure 1. Engine companies in United Engine Corporation. Source: UEC.
Soviet and Russian engines have historically been named after their chief designer in the design bureau. We will now describe the main entities in UEC that work with airliner engines. Read more