Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Ryanair: from 17 clicks to 5, we are changing
By Bjorn Fehrm
20 Jan 2015: On the second day of Growth Frontiers 2015 conference in Dublin, Ryanair former CFO, now Board Member Howard Millar, told us about a changed company.
“Ryanair is today the largest airline in Europe with 82 million passengers carried during Fiscal Year 2014 (April 2013 to March 2014). Growth is at record level and RyanAir is planning to grow to more than 100 million passengers during the ongoing Fiscal Year 2015. Read more
Fundamentals of airliner performance, Part 6; The engine
By Bjorn Fehrm
19 Jan 2015: There is a lot written about the fundamentals of how aircraft fly. It is something that fascinates people and it generates a high level of understanding of these fundamentals. The same is not true for the airline turbofan engines in use today; their detailed function remains a bit of black art.
To some extent this might be because what is exiting in the engines (the thrust) is generated behind closed doors. The only visible part of the process is a rotating fan face and sometimes a slight miss-colored exhaust out the other way. There is also at takeoff a funny buzzing sound interspersed with the general engine noise. Apart from that, the most that one sees is a round nacelle and that is it.
Growth Frontiers 2015 conference: Fuel prices and the order bubble
By Bjorn Fehrm
18 Jan 2015: The subject of the first day at the Growth Frontiers 2015 in Dublin has been very much “what will happen with lower fuel prices”. The conference is the yearly gathering of the aircraft financing community with investors, banks and lessors gathering to learn how key factors in the market affect their industry. With the first day behind us, it is clear the top subject is the low fuel prices and how these will affect aircraft orders and prices going forward.
Interview with Airbus CEO Fabrice Brégier: Airbus and innovation
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
18 Jan 2015: When visiting Toulouse last week we got the opportunity to talk to Airbus CEO, Fabrice Bregiér, on one of his pet subjects: the need for Airbus to be more innovative.
Background to the discussion was that we had observed that Airbus, after decades of a high innovation level, higher than its main competitor Boeing, had slipped behind in the last decade. We wanted to discuss this with Brégier, who has during his tenure, elevated the innovation theme to one of his top priorities. We wanted to see if we had consensus on the past and understood Airbus way forward.
Summary
- A380 problems undercut subsequent innovation; but
- Airbus still maintains innovative lead, Bregier says;
- A350, A320neo, A330neo examples of innovation; and
- Don’t need to overreach when benefits aren’t there.
A321neo configurations and A320 production
By Bjorn Fehrm
18 Jan 2015: As part of the preparations for the Airbus A321LR article 15 Jan. we saw a need to clarify with Airbus the production configurations for A321neo. There had been several iterations of what will be produced come mid-2018 when the A321neo variant is scheduled to roll off the FALs at Airbus in an enhanced Airbus Cabin-Flex (ACF) variant.
This variant features a three-door pairs layout that allows a raised max passenger limit by virtue of displaced door three and an addition of a second overwing exit. Recent media articles have suggested that both the initial four-door variant as well as the three-door variant would be available.
Airbus formally launches A321LR; we look behind the “LR” to see what’s there
15 Jan 2015: Airbus officially launched what to date has been called A321neoLR as the A321LR at their annual press conference Tuesday. The former A321neoLR name was formed by Leeham News on 21 Ocober 2014 when we could reveal the existence of a A321neo variant which Airbus had started to present to airlines at the time. The final name kept the LR attribute used in the article to distinguish the longer range variant from the standard A321neo.
The A319 has used the LR designation but its use has been limited. The suffix is more commonly identified with Boeing, used as it is with the 777-200LR. Boeing has also commonly used the ER for extended range like 777-200ER, 737-900ER and 777-300ER.
Interview with John Leahy: A380 sales strategy going forward
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Now open to all readers (Fe. 15, 2015)
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Jan 14 2015: In our deep analysis of the Airbus A380, we concluded that there is nothing wrong with the basic economics of the giant airplane. In fact, with today’s fuel prices, the aircraft’s Direct Operating Costs (DOC) are 20% below its alternatives in the market. Yet the aircraft is experiencing its worst sales drought since its launch, despite adding a leasing alternative during 2014 and efforts by Airbus.
To understand why and what Airbus plans to do about it we arranged for an exclusive interview with Airbus Chief Operating Officer-Customers, John Leahy, at the sidelines of Airbus annual press conference.
Summary
- Our assessment of A380’s cost of operation
- Operating airlines experience with the A380
- Airbus sales strategy to date and changes going forward
Market potential for A321LR
Here’s how Airbus sees the market potential for the A321LR, going well beyond the 50-60 Boeing 757s flying the Atlantic and some limited operations on other routes.
Airbus believes the A321LR will expand the market considerably over the Boeing 757 long-range routes today. Source: Airbus.