Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
- Better transparency needed on Boeing’s 1Q earnings call April 22, 2024
A380 orders boost backlog but future risk remains
The order by Emirates Airlines for 50 more Airbus A380s had been hinted at for some time, and it is certainly welcome for the backlog. This deal, coupled with the MOU announced at the Paris Air Show for 20 from lessor Doric, expected to be firmed up by year end, adds 70 orders to the long-stalled total count, which was 259 prior to either deal (net of three cancellations from Lufthansa Airlines). This now brings Airbus to 329 orders.
It’s still well short of the 650 orders Airbus expects to snare over the next 20 years from its September 20-year forecast. These expectations are on top of the existing order stream, and a figure that hasn’t changed much since its first Very Large Aircraft forecast in 2000.
(The current forecast is for about 1,300 VLA passenger models; Airbus expects to receive 50% of the market. This is before the 777-9X, barely qualifying as a VLA at a nominal 407 passengers, entered the picture. Up to now, Airbus has been capturing nearly 90% of the VLAP market against Boeing’s 747-8I.)
AIN Online beat us to our plan to assess the future risks for the A380, particularly as it heads into the secondary market, with this analysis. We agree with the broad conclusion that there will be little secondary market opportunity for the airplane beginning in 2020 when the first of Emirates Airlines’ behemoths start coming off lease.
One lessor, who is not an A380 owner, says it will cost about $20m to reconfigure an A380 in a typical three-class layout with the usual bells and whistles. Doric Lease, in an interview with Bloomberg, says Airbus needs to standardize configuration to make re-leasing the giant plane easier.
Boeing in Puget Sound after the IAM 777X vote: bleak, unless something changes
With the rejection last week by the International Association of Machinists Local 751of the Boeing contract offer that would have located the 777X airplane assembly and wing production in Puget Sound (Seattle), the inevitable question arises: What is Boeing’s future here?
Seattle media and state elected officials are worried that if Boeing locates the 777X outside Washington State, and given the toxic relationship between the machinists and Boeing as well as within its own union, that this could be the start of an exodus from the state.
We agree, although we believe it will be a slow, downward spiral, not a rapid exodus–unless something dramatic changes with the current situation.
The chart illustrates our forecast of Boeing’s gradual departure from Puget Sound based on the current set of circumstances.
DXB13 Day 1: Airbus scores big orders, Boeing launches 777X
From the Dubai Air Show, Day 1:
Airbus
Qatar would buy A350-1000 stretch
Boeing
777 Launched: Boeing New Airplane;
Montreal Gazette, reporting from Dubai
Aviation Week: 787 influence on 777X
Boeing leads Airbus after first day
Other news:
Ilyushin Finance targets Middle East
The Seattle Times has a behind-the-scenes article on the divide between IAM 751 and its International headquarters and within IAM 751.
IAE launches Pure V engine plan for V2500s on A320 family and MD-90s
International Aero Engines has launched
Jon Beatty, President of International Aero Engines
a program called Pure V program for the V2500 engine used on the Airbus A320ceo and the Boeing MD-90, leveraging OEM-provided maintenance and parts that will offered extended warranties and potential better residual values.
The announcement was made at the Dubai Air Show 17 Nov. local time.
IAE president Jon Beatty said the project was driven by customer input, particularly that of lessors, who own a large number of A320s powered by the V2500. Lessors in particular are concerned about residual values, which affect lease rates as they re-lease the aircraft after short-to-medium terms at lessees.
“Engines with 100% IAE-approved parts and repairs enhance the on-wing service, fuel economy and residual values,” Beatty told us in an interview.
Beatty said that qualifying in-service engines—and 60% will immediately, and the rest may be retro-fitted—will see improved on-wing time by an estimated 20% after going through the program. A Pure V engine will also see a return to original fuel burn specifications after normal degradation, and these will have about a one-half percentage improvement over non-IAE maintained and serviced V2500s not using IAE OEM parts.
More than 50% of V2500 owners and operators are already signed up to IAE’s power-by-the-hour program, called Fleet Hour Agreement (FHA). Beatty said 80% of the new customers choose FHA.
Non-OEM parts under the Federal Aviation Administration’s Parts Manufacturer Approval program won’t qualify for the Pure V program, extended warranty or other benefits.
For lessors, who own more than 50% of the V2500-powered A320ceos, expect to benefit from higher residual values by being able to pass through this value in their lease rates, Beatty said. Appraisers, who forecast RVs, need to become familiar with the program, and IAE plans a data base they can consult.
Odds and Ends: 787 teething; IAM-777X continues; Boeing in Puget Sound; Dubai Air Show
787 teething issues: Flight Global has this report from the Dubai Air Show in which it quotes Boeing as saying there will be another six months of teething issues on the 787. We hear it will be longer than this.
IAM-777X: These stories will continue for some time. The latest: Reuters has this exclusive interview with IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger, posted Friday. But a Boeing official later denied Buffenbarger’s claim.
Buffenbarger said the IAM won’t make a counter offer; Boeing previously said it has “no plans to re-engage” the IAM. As we noted in our posting Thursday, both sides retreated to their corners in a testosterone posture. Buffenbarger screwed this up. It’s up to him to come up with a counter-proposal.
This from the Dubai Air Show via Twitter:
Boeing exec’s lament quick timing of IAM vote on 777X labour deal, believe members did not “digest” all info completely.
This is more evidence of the completely botched effort. If Boeing is lamenting, then it, too, ought to come back to the bargaining table.
Reuters has this article from Dubai, quoting Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, saying the ball is now in IAM’s court.
Boeing in Puget Sound: After the IAM vote debacle, the Tacoma News Tribune has a long article (picked up in the Everett Herald) about the future of Boeing’s Frederickson plant, which makes stuff for a variety of 7-Series airplanes. It would have been a participant in the 777X program.
Dubai Air Show: This opens tomorrow; follow on Twitter at #Dxb13 and @Dubaiairshow
Some key articles:
Odds and Ends: Volcano protection; Airbus trims guidance on A350; More on Boeing
Volcano protection: No, we’re not talking about any eruptions from IAM 751. Instead, Airbus and Europe’s easyJet created some man-made volcano ash to conduct tests for detecting the real thing.
Airbus trims guidance: EADS/Airbus trimmed its financial guidance on A350 development costs, according to The Financial Times (free registration required). According to The Times, the entry-into-service of the A350–slated for 3Q2014–“is at risk.” We have EIS in 1Q2015. EADS for now is sticking with the 2014 EIS.
Boeing 777X: As might be expected, there continues to be a lot of news on the 777X.
- Reuters: Boeing vote brings out rivals
- Los Angeles Times: Long Beach seeks 777X
- Wall Street Journal: Boeing moves to evaluation sites
- KING5 (NBC-Seattle): Has a number of stories at this link.
- Seattle Times: The morning after
- Fox Q13 (Seattle): Can Washington lawmakers save the day?
- Puget Sound Business Journal: 777X alternatives hotter climate but cheaper housing
- KUOW (NPR Seattle): What rejection means for unions
IAM 777X vote: the day after
The IAM 751 membership last night handed Boeing and the IAM International a major defeat, rejecting the proposed 777X contract with a 67% vote.
What happened?
This was the classic cluster-fuck* from the get-go. IAM International, for reasons we have yet to figure out, drove this train. IAM 751 local leadership was largely a by-stander in the negotiations, and it got mugged in the process. International sprung this package on the 751 membership by surprise and Boeing gave the membership one week to make a decision. The contract terms and conditions called for huge take-aways (as the membership sees it), little time to absorb the data, or to communicate to the membership from the IAM’s own leadership.
The governing council of 751 voted not to even present the package to the members, reportedly by an 18-10 vote (a 64% margin, which as it ultimately turned out, wasn’t far off from the 67% membership rejection of the contract). The Local was overruled by International.
Local leadership, and its media team, were put on ice, with all communications being handled by International. 751’s leader, Tom Wroblewski, was sidelined but his pique hit the public domain a week ago when at a meeting he called the contract proposal “crap,” tore it up and vowed to see if he could cancel the vote and return to the bargaining table. International overruled him on all counts.
Boeing management, as it has in the past, completely misread the mood of the union, thinking jobs would trump dismay over the give-backs. Instead, the members were pissed at Boeing for what they perceived as a take it-or-leave it ultimatum; they were pissed at the IAM International; they were pissed at the Local leadership (whom they understandably believed were complicit); they were pissed at the time line; they were pissed at the terms and conditions and they were pissed at the surprise.
If Boeing management should have learned anything through the years, it should have been you don’t want to piss off the IAM membership.
*This language violates our own standards for this blog, but sometimes there simply is no other way to put it.
It’s official: IAM rejects Boeing contact by wide margin: 67%
The IAM 751 local thumped Boeing and the IAM International with a stunning rejection of the 777X contract by a margin of 67% to 33%.
IAM International aerospace coordinate Mark Johnson made the announcement. Tom Wroblewski, 751 president, had been sidelined by the International in negotiations and throughout the balloting process after the 751 council reportedly voted 18-10 not to put the contract to the membership for a vote. The International overruled the local. Wroblewski was absent from the announcement and the press conference was cancelled.
Boeing is expected to issue a statement shortly affirming previous threats to put the 777X site location out to bid.
We expect Boeing to come under great pressure from Washington politicians to reconvene negotiations with the IAM to come up with a new agreement. The question is, if Boeing agrees, which IAM will be back at the bargaining table: International or Local 751?
Update: Boeing’s statement:
Boeing Commercial Airplanes has issued a statement from President and CEO Ray Conner after a long-term contract extension was voted down by the International Association of Machinists & Aerospace Workers District 751.
“We are very disappointed in the outcome of the union vote. Our goal was two-fold: to enable the 777X and its new composite wing to be produced in Puget Sound and to create a competitive structure to ensure that we continue market-leading pay, health care and retirement benefits while preserving jobs and our industrial base here in the region. But without the terms of this contract extension, we’re left with no choice but to open the process competitively and pursue all options for the 777X.
I’d like to thank Governor Jay Inslee and the Washington state legislature for all their efforts in this process. We had hoped for a different outcome.”