Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
Update on Germanwings; news conference highlights
March 25, 2015: It’s the end of the business day in France, where the Germanwings A320 crashed. Here’s the latest:
- The cockpit voice recorder was recovered yesterday, badly damaged.
It’s been reported that investigators are having difficulty recovering data.
- The flight data recorder was recovered today, but it, too, was badly damaged and the memory chip is reported missing.
- There is a theory emerging in Europe that the cockpit windscreen cracked, causing a depressurization that led to hypoxia and pilot incapacitation. Christine Negroni, who is a safety journalist, talks about this possibility in a recorded interview. However, John Cox, a safety expert, emailed us that the windscreen is double-paned and this hasn’t happened before. He is a former A320 captain with a major US airline.
- A news conference is reportedly scheduled for 11am Eastern time.
News conference highlights
As could be expected, there was little concrete information about the events of the airplane and what caused the accident. Remi Jouty, director of of the French Bureau of Investigation, recounted the flight path and communication concerns of the Air Traffic Control. He also said:
- The descent began eight minutes after the last communication with the airplane.
- The CVR has audible data, but it’s too soon to have any kind of analysis of what’s on the data. Initial analysis could be days away but a detailed transcript weeks and months.
- Although the New York Times reported the second black box, the flight data recorder, has been recovered but was missing the all-important data chip, Jouty said (via the translator) “We have not at all localized the second black box.” News reports quote the French president saying the box itself was recovered but it had no contents.
- Responding to questions about the theories of depressurization, Jouty said (via translator), “AT this point I don’t have even a beginning of a scenario. I refuse to construct any kind of scenario to include depressurization of the airplane.”
- Jouty did not know if the auto-pilot was engaged.
- He confirmed the descent rate was about 3,000 ft/min with some “fluctuations,” based on radar data.
We don’t believe there is going to be any news of consequence to the investigation until the CVR audio is analyzed and information released; and/or until the flight data recorder is found and analyzed. Mapping wreckage and recovery of remains will continue.
We’ll monitor events but otherwise plan to stand down until developments warrant.
Germanwings 4U9525 lost over French Alps; chiefs of state at site.
Figure 1. First image of the German Wings crash site. Via Twitter. Click on image to enlarge.
Note: we continue to add latest news to this article, updates are from now on in blue.
March 23, 2015; An A320 from Germanwings, a subsidiary of Lufthansa, has crashed today after contact was lost with the aircraft at 10.47 UTC over French Alps. The aircraft, with 144 passengers and six crew members, was on scheduled flight 4U9525 from Barcelona, Spain to Düsseldorf, Germany. The crash site has been identified north of Dijne-le-Bain in Alpes-de-Provence, French authorities has reported there are no survivors.
The aircraft, an A320, was serial number 147 from 1990, one of the older in the fleet of Germanwings.
Nothing is communicated about a possible reason for the crash, which happened after a steep descent from cruise altitude just after the aircraft reached the French coast east of Marseilles, Figure 2.
Figure 2. Flightradar24 playback of flight-, vertical path and ground-speed for 4U9525. Source: Flightradar24.
Challenges working against A330ceo production goal
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Introduction
March 23, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Airbus faces a production gap for the A330ceo and has twice announced reductions in the rate: first, from 10/mo to 9/mo in 4Q2015 and then again to 6/mo in 1Q2016.
Despite confidence expressed by John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers, that rate six will be maintained going into production of the successor A330neo, we think the production gap is great enough that another rate cut might be necessary.
Summary
- Filling the production gap depends in part on converting options and letters of intent into firm orders and obtaining a significant number of firm orders between now and when the A330neo enters service in 2018.
- We see a need for more than 100 orders between now and 2018.
- The A330 Regional has yet to land a single order, but an Airbus official says don’t count it out.
Challenges working against 777 Classic production goal
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Introduction
March 22, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: The aerospace analyst team at Wells Fargo last Thursday predicted a production rate cut for the Boeing 777 Classic despite continued statements by Boeing it will maintain production at the current 100/yr.
“We remain skeptical that Boeing will be able to sustain 777 production at 8.3/mo (100/yr) through 2020,” Wells Fargo’s Sam Pearlstein wrote.
Pearlstein predicts a rate cut in 2017 to 7/mo. We believe rates will eventually fall to 5/mo by the time the production airplanes for the 777-9 begins in 2018 for 2020 entry-into-service. (Boeing hopes to advance EIS to 4Q2019, according to our Market Intelligence).
Wells Fargo cites several reasons for its conclusion about the 777 Classic. We have some additional information gleaned from Market Intelligence that cast some unexpected challenges for Boeing to achieve its goal of selling 40-60 Classics per year.
Summary
- A few 2016 delivery slots haven’t been placed by lessors.
- Given two-year lead time for Buyer Furnished Equipment, timing is becoming critical for some deliveries.
- BFE issues are focused on seat manufacturers’ shortfall.
- Freighter sales needed to fill early slots.
Bjorn’s Corner: Intro, LCC long range and CFM’s LEAP
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 19, 2015: This is the first version of my Corner where I will comment on the aeronautical world as I see it. It will be a mix of tech things (I am an engineer) and my view on things from my European vantage point. Enough on reason and style; lets get started.
LCC goes long range: After AirAsiaX and Norwegian, now Ryanair is going long range, according to Irish Times (or not; the latest news from Robert Wall of The Wall Street Journal is that the board has not approved a long range business plan).
Be that as it may with Ryanair, the key thing is that what happened to the majors on short haul is about to hit them on long haul as well. Short haul LCCs brought about a change in airline economics and in single aisle aircraft. The LCCs, followed by Ultra LCCs, started the trend to denser and denser configurations where the latest trends are sub 29 inch pitch slim-seats and lavatories that started at 37 inch getting slimmed to 31 inch. It has also brought about changes in galleys and emergency exits configurations, all leading to aircraft with higher and higher capacities.
Redefining the 757 replacement: Requirement for the 225/5000 Sector, Part 6.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
18 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: In Part 1 of of this series we investigated the market sector 225/5000, which is our name for the market segment beyond the capacity of single aisles A320 and 737 aircraft. Boeing calls this Middle Of the Market, MOM, and is studying which aircraft type would best cover this segment.
In Part 5 of the series we concluded that beyond 220 seats a dual aisle aircraft can be competitive as it can increase utilization due to shorter ground turn-around time. We now conclude the investigation by looking at what Airbus response can be based on a further developed A320 and how it would stack up against optimized seven abreast dual aisle alternatives from Boeing’s MOM study, one of these using Boeing’s patented elliptical fuselage, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Compared cross sections for MOM market. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- The rational further stretch of Airbus A321LR is a re-winged/re-engined A322 with 30-40 more passengers, or five to seven additional rows.
- We compare this development with optimized models from our MOM studies and the A321LR.
- For the comparison we focus on efficiency in weight, drag and fuel for the different alternatives. How competitive will a stretched A321 be and how close in weight and drag comes an elliptical MOM model?
Rebuilding confidence at Bombardier
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- This week the Malay government announced an order for 20 CSeries CS100s. for a new airline.
Introduction
March 17, 2015: c. Leeham Co. Turmoil at Bombardier, both financial and with the departure of several key personnel, caused a crisis in confidence among customers and shareholders. The stock price took a tumble and some Canadian aerospace analysts, and the few on Wall Street who also follow the stock, have become increasingly pessimistic. Leeham News and Comment published a long analysis after Ray Jones departed Bombardier Commercial Aircraft in a surprise move, the latest in a series of top-level departures at the unit. Market reaction was decidedly negative.
CEO Pierre Beaudoin stepped up February 12 to executive chairman, relinquishing the chief executive title of Bombardier to Alain Bellemare, a veteran of Pratt & Whitney whose appointment was generally well received.
Still, customers we talked with continue to be cautious. One has a wait-and-see about what Bellemare will be able to achieve, and how soon. This customer believes Bellemare has until the Paris Air Show in June to show some tangible progress.
Another customer was considerably more upbeat, viewing the appointment as a major change in the company for the better.
Canadian analysts were positive about the management changes, in part because the market has lost confidence in the Beaudoin management and in part because Bellemare and his PW experience are viewed as heavy-weight.
Ross Mitchell, vice president of Business Acquisitions and Commercial Aircraft, Bombardier. Source: Fleigerfaust.
We sat down with Ross Mitchell, vice president of Business Acquisitions and Commercial Aircraft for Bombardier, at the ISTAT conference last week in Phoenix for a wide-ranging interview. Here is Part 1.
Summary
- Bombardier needs to restore confidence in the market after all the turmoil. How will this be accomplished?
- Will Alain Bellemare have the flexibility and freedom to do what needs to be done?
- Organizational restructuring has already made some progress.
- The financings are a positive.
Pontifications: USA to the World: “We want to fly everywhere. Period.”
By Scott Hamilton
- Two of the Big 3 Middle Eastern carriers launched a PR counter offensive in Washington DC today. Below are my thoughts.
I haven’t weighed in on the current battle between the Big 3 US airlines and the Big 3 Middle Eastern carriers because it’s largely beyond the scope of LNC. But I like commercial aviation history, so I thought I’d bring up a little.
In the era immediately post-World War II, when third, fourth and fifth freedom rights were being negotiated between the US and the Rest of the World, there was a member of Congress, Claire Luce Booth of Connecticut, summed it up nicely: “American postwar aviation policy is simple. We want to fly everywhere. Period.”
Leahy on 737-8ERX and the prospect of an “A322”
March 16, 2015
737-8ERX: John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers at Airbus, not surprisingly doesn’t think much of the concept Boeing is showing airlines, the 737-8ERX.
“Boeing is getting more and more desperate,” Leahy claimed in a telephone interview we had with him last week. “Boeing is talking the ‘sweet spot.’ They only have one airplane. There isn’t that much of a market at the bottom of the market. I know they are playing around with how do they answer the A321LR. Their answer is focusing on range. There’s no place for bags [in the 737-8ERX], you’re a flying fuel tank. We had to play around quite a bit [to put bags in the A321LR]. If that’s the best they can do, they have a serious problem on their hands.”
This is a pivotal year for the A380 as Airbus considers neo, PIPs
Introduction
March 15, 2015: This is a pivotal year for the future of the Airbus A380.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, increased the pressure for development of an A380neo when he said he’d buy up to 200 of the prospective re-engined airplane, potentially doubling the number of neos he previously said he’d buy.
It was widely expected that if Airbus proceeds with a neo, Rolls-Royce will provide the engine. Market Intelligence, however, indicates development of the Advance engine may be running into challenges. Airbus is now talking with Engine Alliance about upgrades to the GP7200.
Summary
- Customers take wait-and-see approach to prospect of a New Engine Option.
- Mixing engine types a consideration for some.
- Some at Boeing quietly rooting for Airbus to proceed.