Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
A380 launch aid in limbo at WTO, member states following program termination
Feb. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Termination of the A380 program leaves unanswered Airbus’ obligation of outstanding launch aid from France and Germany.
But apparently it removes any overhang of this aid in the long running trade dispute between
the US and Europe (Boeing vs Airbus) at the World Trade Organization.
As the dispute wound its way through the WTO since the US filed its complaint nearly 15 years ago, the only surviving issues were subsidies for the A380 and A350.
Based on precedent involving termination of the A340 program, in which the WTO ruled there was no further harm to Boeing once the last A340 was delivered, the remaining launch aid was rendered moot in the context of the WTO. The governments wound up eating the balance of the launch aid.
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Airbus’ 2018 results conference: Enders hands Faury a clean deck
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 14, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Airbus announced its 2018 results today at a press conference in Toulouse. It was the last Yearly press conference for Airbus CEO Tom Enders and CFO Harald Wilhelm. Both leave the company in the coming months.
The press conference was colored by the CEO hand over to Guillaume Faury but also the winding up of the A380 program, a problem Enders didn’t want his successor to inherit. The gone year delivered overall results as guided a year ago despite closures charges for A380 and further provisions for A400M.
A simple solution to congested skies
By Dan Catchpole
Danieljcatchpole[at]gmail[dot]com
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Introduction
Feb. 14, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Flight delays cost the airline industry
Traffic back ups are increasing–so much so that Airbus has invested in improving air traffic management to avoid congestion affecting aircraft sales.
billions of dollars each year. They cause travelers untold aggravation and inconvenience every day. And the main culprit—air traffic congestion—is only going to get worse as Boeing and Airbus deliver tens of thousands of jetliners over the next couple decades.
Regulators, lawmakers and the aviation industry in the United States have settled on spending billions of taxpayer dollars on NextGen—after having already spent billions—to implement complex technical solutions to keep the skies safe and cut down on flight delays.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimated in 2017 that implementing NextGen will cost roughly $35.7 billion by 2030–$20.6 billion from the FAA and another $15.1 billion from the aviation industry.
NextGen has moved with the swiftness of a sprawling, technocratic federal program—that is to say like an elephant at the ballet. It has endured delays and cost escalation, though these have not been crippling. However, it is years away from unclogging America’s congested air spaces.
Moreover, there are very real questions as to whether NextGen will be able to deliver all the FAA promises it can.
Summary
- Air spaces are getting more crowded, leading to greater flight delays.
- Airbus is concerned that congestion could hurt demand for jetliners, and is taking steps to improve air traffic flow.
- Substantial questions exist as to NextGen’s ability to unclog air traffic congestion.
- Taking a system-wide approach that taps into airlines’ desire to maximize profits could be implemented now, say proponents.
Airbus ends the A380 program
Feb. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus announced today (Seattle time, Feb. 14 in 
Toulouse) that it is terminating the A380 program.
The last airplane will roll off the assembly line in 2021, for Emirates Airlines.
Emirates cancelled an order for 39 A380s. In its place, the carrier ordered 30 A350s and 40 A330neos.
The Emirates and Airbus press release is here.
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A380 program termination expected tomorrow
Feb. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus is expected to announce tomorrow the termination of the A380 program, a move that had been rumored for weeks.
Tomorrow is Airbus’ annual press conference for 2018 results. Its Board of Directors meets today.
Word emerged last month that Emirates Airline was considering cancelling its 2017 order for the giant airplane, swapping the 20 (plus 17 options) for the A350 or the A330neo.
Last week, Qantas Airways, as long expected, canceled its remaining order for eight A380s. This week, Qatar Airways said it will begin retiring its A380s when the first reaches age 10.
A380 termination good for Airbus, tough on suppliers, analyst says
Airbus A380’s future in doubt. Photo: Airbus.
Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Terminating the A380 program may be a blessing in disguise for Airbus, writes a US aerospace analyst.
At the same time, it could cause headaches for the supply chain.
Carter Copeland of Melius Research LLC makes a split decision on the future of the A380. There is speculation that retiring Airbus CEO Tom Enders might decide to end the program before he leaves office in April, clearing the decks for his successor, Guillaume Faury.
With CSeries, Airbus commands 78% of 100-150 seat sector
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Introduction
Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus acquired 50.01% of the Bombardier CSeries program last year.
Boeing and Embraer Commercial Aviation received Brazilian government approval last month and now await a nearly-year long regulatory approval process from around the globe.
Based on the announced orders at Jan. 1, Airbus has a 78% share of the 100-150 seat sector following the combinations.
Embraer sold more airplanes in this sector than Boeing: 95 E195-E2s to 70 737-7s.
The former CSeries has 526 orders to 55 for the A319neo.
Summary
- 14% of the A220 orders are classified as “Red” in LNA’s judgment—orders that either should be removed from the backlog or, in one case, is highly questionable due to customer statements.
- Another 11% of the A220 orders are classified as “Yellow,” primarily due to region risk.
- Synergies between A220 and A320 are greater than E2 and 737.
Pontifications: The 747 revolutionized air travel
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Few airplanes truly can be called revolutionary. Most are evolutionary.
The Boeing 747 was one of those that falls into the former category.
Just as the Boeing 707 revolutionized air travel, so did the 747.
The spaciousness and, after a period of engine difficulties, the economics put the 747 into a class by itself.
Boeing’s 777X analyzed, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 07, 2019, © Leeham News: In our analysis series about the 777X, we have now come to the smaller member of the 777X, the 777-8.
It’s what’s called a “cut and shut” shrink of the main variant, the 777-9. A cut and shut derivative of a larger base aircraft gives the smaller aircraft some special characteristics. We look at what this entails.
Figure 1. First flight test Boeing 777-9 with the GE9X engines mounted. Source: Boeing.
Summary:
- The 777-8 is a “cut and shut”variant of the 777-9. This means it keeps the wings, engines, landing gear and empennage of the larger 777-9.
- A shorter fuselage with a reduced cabin size means the 777-8 filled with passenger and cargo has more weight margins for fuel within the same Maximum Takeoff Weight as the 777-9.
- The end result is an Ultra Long-haul capable aircraft, available from 2022.
Countdown to NMA decision, Part 4: Time out
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Feb. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time for Airbus to launch the A321XLR.
Boeing last week announced a program launch for the New Midmarket Airplane won’t come until 2020 at the earliest.
Authority to Offer (ATO) may come as early as March or April. It had been widely expected a program launch would be announced at the Paris Air Show in June.
Airbus has been mulling the XLR launch since 2017. Inside information says a November 2017 launch was planned when all the distractions over the corruption scandals, coupled with key executive retirements, overwhelmed events.
Fifteen months later, Airbus dithers while Boeing vacillates.