Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Odds and Ends: A330neo more likely; Boeing cockpit commonality; Monarch Airlines
A330neo more likely: The Financial Times of London has a long interview (including a five minute video) with Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier (free registration required) in which he says the launch of the A330neo is becoming more and more likely. It remains unclear (and probably unlikely) that the launch will come next week at the Farnborough Air Show, but we don’t think it will be long afterwards.
Air Lease Corp, CIT Aerospace, Delta Air Lines, AirAsiaX and Virgin Atlantic are among those that have publicly expressed interest in the neo. We’ve heard a couple of other names as well.
Although Bregier told us last month he thought the market potential was about 400-500, he says in the FT article it could be more than 1,000.
We’re told there is still some internal division over proceeding with the program, but at the same time signs are continuing to build that the decision is all but a done deal to do so.
Boeing cockpit commonality: Airbus has for years promoted cockpit commonality across its airplane line as an economic and operational advantage vs Boeing. Given the longevity of Boeing’s product development, the 7-Series hasn’t been a common cockpit, though there have been some common elements.
With the development of the 737 MAX and the 777X, this “disadvantage,” if you want to call it that, is diminishing. In a recent interview with Boeing’s Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing, we asked about this. His response:
I don’t think there is any question that over time we have worked to raise the bar across the flight decks, worked to have common training and transition times and we have minimized transition times. We seamlessly transition from the 737NG to the MAX. We have leveraged the 787 and we have continually moved for more commonality. The 787 and 777 have common type ratings. You take your recurrent training in every other simulator training time. With 777X we will look to gain [even] more commonality. You have to find the right mix between commonality and capabilities.
It’s important but not the biggest swinger in the campaign. It doesn’t drive the answer in an economic campaign.
Monarch Airlines, Boeing and Bombardier: Monarch’s widely reported (but still unofficial) selection of Boeing’s 737 MAX for its re-fleeting probably means Bombardier won’t get a slice of this order, a huge disappointment to BBD, which put up a good fight for the deal. Airbus is the incumbent and this will be an important flip for Boeing. BBD was hoping to get a slice of the pie in any Boeing win for the larger mainline jet, with the CSeries taking the smaller end. But we’re hearing Boeing’s ability to offer better commercial terms for a sweeping package aced out BBD’s ability–or lack of it–to offer a similar commercial deal. BBD had hoped for the deal for next week’s Farnborough Air Show. Instead, the headlines will go to Boeing.
Our Farnborough coverage: Leeham News and Comment will be at the FAS, with reporting by our new European associate. Watch for reporting at the end of each day (UK time).
Posted on July 8, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Farnborough Air Show preview
The Farnborough Air Show is just around the corner, and we don’t expect the event to be especially newsworthy.
Here are our expectations for the show:
Airbus
Market expectations are that Airbus will launch the A330neo at the air show, and we know John Leahy, COO of Customers, would like to do so at this event. His bosses, Fabrice Bregier and Tom Enders, have been less than encouraging that this announcement could come at the show.
Although news stories last week indicated Airbus’ board may green light the program in advance of the FAS, it was nonetheless reported that a formal public launch may not be made at the show. So what might happen? An “Authority to Offer,” or ATO, might be how Airbus proceeds. We don’t think there will be firm orders ready to go when the FAS begins July 14—although certainly Airbus could also take Boeing’s 777X approach and announce “commitments” as was done at the Dubai Air Show.
We are skeptical whether there might be any A330 Classic orders announced, as customers await the neo. We certainly expect the usual orders for the A320 Family. We expect A350 orders. We’re doubtful of A380 orders.
Posted on July 7, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
PW works toward 10% fuel efficiency gain for 2020’s GTF
With the Airbus A320neo expected to enter flight testing this fall, equipped with the Pratt & Whitney P1000G Geared Turbo Fan and the Bombardier CSeries, also with the GTF, already in testing, PW is already engaged in research to improve fuel efficiency by up to 10% by the middle of the next decade.
During the PW Media Days last month, we sat down with Robert Saia, vice president of Next Generation Product Family, to discuss how this will be accomplished.
Saia describes what he calls a 10-year technology road map PW follows in its development process.
Posted on June 16, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Analyzing the Emirates order cancellations
The cancelled order for 70 Airbus A350s before the company’s annual Innovation Days was a surprise and an embarrassment that took the edge off what was intended to be a two day promotion of Airbus programs.
The cancellation by Emirates Airlines was certainly not good news. But it probably should not have been a total surprise. That it was had more to do with people not paying attention. Emirates had been signaling for some time it had issues with the program ever since Airbus rejigged the A350-1000 a few years ago, without consulting Emirates in the process.
Headlines were bad and while most analysts were measured and reporting balanced, there were a few exceptions of hand-wringing disaster for breathless stories.
Airbus tried to downplay the cancellation, without much success. But an objective analysis suggests Airbus and the rationale analysts are correct: while a blow, it’s hardly a program-defining moment, any more than the Bombardier CSeries-Pratt & Whitney engine failure last month was a defining moment in that program.
Posted on June 11, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Counting options, Letters of Intent
Should manufacturers be counting options and letters of intent toward program certainty? We’ve always thought this was pretty cheeky, but in reality there is a reasonable foundation and history for doing so. Years ago Boeing regularly ridiculed Airbus for announcing “commitments,” denigrating these as not being “real” orders (and, of course, literally they weren’t). But then came the losing battle between the A320neo and the 737 MAX. Lo and Behold, Boeing touted “1,000 orders and commitments” for the MAX in a PR effort to bolster the competitive position of the MAX. Of course, these “commitments” (in the form of options, MOUs and LOIs) converted to orders eventually.
Posted on June 9, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Low pressure turbine failed in CSeries incident: UBS, citing Bombardier
The low pressure turbine failed in the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine on Bombardier’s CSeries, reports investment bank UBS, citing Bombardier.
Writes UBS:
BBD confirmed that recent GTF engine failure was in the low-pressure turbine and that the airframe (FTV1) was damaged in the incident, but downplayed the impact to the program schedule. While root cause analysis is ongoing, BBD emphasized that the failure was unrelated to the gearbox, and also suggested that a manufacturing defect (rather than a design flaw) may have been the cause. The subject engine was known to have problems, and BBD had considered sending it back to Pratt prior to incident on 5/29. Engine was instead repaired at BBD and the failure occurred during subsequent ground-testing. Root cause expected by end of week, corroborating message from our meetings with UTX on Monday.
The LPT is at the rear of the engine. A BBD official told us previously that FTV 1 was equipped with prototype engines, and that the production engines are first installed on FTV 4, the airplane that is designated to validate engine performance.
Engine failures during test programs are rare but not unknown. Rolls-Royce experienced a test-stand engine failure of the Trent 1000 for the Boeing 787 in which components blew apart.
Separately, a GEnx engine spit parts out of the back of the engine while a 787 was taxiing at Boeing’s Charleston 787 plant. Neither incident has serious impact on the program.
Posted on June 6, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
PW Media Day: Real-time monitoring, combining IAE/PW service
This is the next in our series of reports from the Pratt & Whitney Media Days, May 19-20. This interview with Robert Saia, VP Next Generation Product Family, occurred before the Bombardier CSeries-PW GTF engine issue occurred.
Real time tracking information tracking came to the forefront because of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. Much was written about ACARS, which apparently was turned off shortly after 370’s last radio transmission. ACARS provides hourly updates to the airline, or to the engine/airframe makers, about the aircraft’s health monitoring system. ACARS was also important in the Air France 447 investigation in which the Airbus A330 disappeared over the South Atlantic.
We sat down with Saia to discuss, among other things, real-time engine tracking transmissions.
“We have developed in the past, the ability to monitor the engine in service, taking snapshots or continuous monitoring why the airplane was flying and downloading that when the aircraft landed. Either the airline or PW could analyze that data to look at what we call health monitoring to manage the serviceability of that engine.
“In addition to looking to solve problems, PW can also simulate characteristics to predict whether problems might arise based on prior flights,” Saia says. “The intent was to help the airline or PW, if it was providing the maintenance service, to troubleshoot, especially for an AOG (aircraft on ground) situations.
Posted on June 2, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
CSeries setback as PW GTF has reported uncontained failure
- Exclusive interview with Robert Saia, vice president of the Next Generation Product Family at Pratt & Whitney.
- PW believes it has a “good understanding” of what happened.
- Flight testing might resume quickly, reducing risk of program delay.
- Customers coming to previously scheduled Bombardier meeting, will be permitted to see the airplane.
- CSeries EIS delay not expected.
Bombardier, already facing an 18-24 month delay for its CSeries, may face another delay, some fear, following Friday’s reported uncontained engine failure of the Pratt & Whitney P1500G Geared Turbo Fan engine.
BBD grounded its four test airplanes while an investigation gets underway. The engine failure also damaged the fuselage of FTV 1. FTV 4, the airplane in airline configuration that is to validate economic promises of the GTF, had only been on three or four test flights in the slow-moving testing program. FTVs 2 and 3 have been flying for some time. FTV 5, 6 and 7 had not yet taken to the air.
There was a reported fire associated with the failure, but this is unconfirmed. Smoke was filmed during the event, but based on information Saturday, it’s unclear if a fire actually occurred, according to a person close to the investigation. The airplane was on the ground in Montreal at the time, and the four crew members were uninjured.
BBD, PW and Transport Canada are all investigating.
Engine failures during testing are rare but not unknown.
Posted on June 1, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
787, A319neo, A320NEO, A321NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CS100, CS300, CSeries, E-175-E2, E-195 E2, E-Jet E2, E190 E2, Embraer, GE Aviation, Geared Turbo Fan, GTF, Irkut, MC-21, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, P1500G, Pratt & Whitney, Robert Saia, Rolls-Royce
Engineers group supports anti-Russia DOD amendment involving Boeing
The International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers, an affiliate of the AFL-CIO, has written members of Congress supporting an amendment to the FY15 National Defense Authorization bill (HR 4435) that would block Defense spending with Russian companies, including on with which Boeing has a major agreement.
This relates to the situation in Ukraine. The trade group summarizes the amendment below:
DeLarua/Granger/Ellison/Connolly (VA) Huizenga amendment #201 – to prohibit the DoD from entering into a contract or subcontract with Russia’s state-arms dealer Rosoboronexport until Russia pulls out of Crimea and has withdrawn from the eastern border of Ukraine. The fact that American taxpayer monies are being spent to prop up a Russian state run company is disturbing enough. However, what is sometimes lost in the discussion and reporting is that major American aerospace manufactures and Pentagon defense contractors continue to do business in Russia, including with Rosoboronexport. For example, The Boeing Company, which receives billions of dollars in Pentagon defense contracts, and was just granted billions more in tax incentives from Washington State taxpayers, has entered into a multi-billion dollar joint venture with Rosoboronexport, that could include up to $18 billion in contracts for Russian titanium products, and $5 billion on Russian engineering services by 2030. Meanwhile, the company is laying off thousands of US engineers. Not only does IFPTE support this amendment and urge a yes vote on it, we believe that its impact should also be extended to American manufactures doing business in Russia, particularly major American defense contractors such as Boeing.
The West’s sanctions against Russia are having an impact on aerospace. Bombardier was on the cusp of firming up an MOU for up to 100 Q400s and an assembly site in Russia into a contract when Russia entered Ukraine’s Crimea region. Canada is supporting sanctions (there is a large Ukrainian population in Canada). Boeing’s president and COO, Dennis Muilenburg, canceled an appearance at a key Russian conference (though lower level Boeing people reportedly would attend), supposedly at the request of the US government.
European participation in sanctions appears spotty.
Posted on May 22, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Embraer’s enhanced E-Jet passenger experience
We flew in a new American Airlines (operated by Republic Airways) Embraer E-Jet E1 on our way to the Pratt & Whitney media day and noticed the difference immediately with the E-Jet” Classic.”
It’s the “passenger experience.”
The E-Jet Classic had overhead bins that were better than the Bombardier CRJ and Embraer ERJ but non as good as the Airbus A320, Boeing 737 or the forthcoming Bombardier CSeries. The bins could accept larger bags than could the CRJ and ERJ but not as big as the other jets. The port side bin in the E-Jet Classic was a narrow little thing that we joked could accept your water bottle and that was about it.
The new E-Jet E1 Enhanced bins are much better. While the port side first class isn’t as big as the starboard side, it now accepts briefcases, tote bags and small backpacks. The star board bin easily accepts roller backs sized for three nights away, though Airbus, Boeing and CSeries still have an advantage.
Posted on May 21, 2014 by Scott Hamilton