Here are the orders we’ve seen for today (there could be more); this should pretty well do it for the show, though it does continue through Friday and there probably will be a few more deals:
Items of interest:
Posted on July 16, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce
737-700C, 737-8, 777-9, 777F, 777X, 787-9, A330neo, A350-900, A380, Airbus, ATR, ATR-72-600, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CS300, CSeries, GE Engines, LEAP-1A, Marshall Aerospace, Q400, Rolls-Royce
After a long drought of orders or even LOIs and MOUs, the Mitsubishi MRJ program saw some life at this Farnborough Air Show.
Sales of Japan’s first commercial airplane since the propeller-era’s YS-11 stalled with orders from SkyWest Airlines, Trans States Airlines and Japan’s ANA.
But at the FAS, Mitsubishi announced an MOU with Eastern Air Lines, a US start-up carrier, for up to 40 and a much smaller order for six from Air Mandalay.
The Eastern MOU can fairly come under scrutiny if for no other reason than the company is a start-up. Little is known about its financial fund raising and the business model–to begin as a charter airline and transition to a scheduled carrier in the highly competitive US Southeast–doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. EAL, named after the old trunk carrier that went out of business in 1991, has also ordered the Boeing 737-800 after initially announcing plans to begin service with the Airbus A320.
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Here are the orders and commitments announced today that we saw–there could be others we haven’t seen:
Items of note:
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
737-8, 777-300ER, 777X, A320ceo, A320NEO, A321NEO, A330-900neo, A330neo, Airbus, ATR-72, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, GTF, LEAP-1A, Leap-1B, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney GTF, Q400, Q400 Combi, Twin Otter, Viking Aircraft
The news that Mitsubishi will stage flight testing for its new MRJ 90-seat jet program at Moses Lake (WA) is, parochially, good news. And it is exactly the type of non-industrial aerospace business that we’ve been advocating for Washington since our consulting days to the State Department of Commerce in 2010, and during our tenure as a member of the Board of Directors for the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) for three years (2010-2013).
Washington, understandably, has been married to, and focused on, industrial aerospace. Boeing is here, of course. The supply based the supports Boeing has a huge footprint in Washington. But industrial business is highly capital-intensive, and winning this business is highly competitive.
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
777-9, 777X, Airbus, Beyond Boeing, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Gov. Christine Gregoire, Gov. Jay Inslee, GTF, Japan Air Lines, Jim McNerney, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney GTF, Space Shuttle
Embraer Monday at the Farnborough Air Show revealed its new interior designed the for E-Jet E2, the re-engined and re-winged airplane scheduled to enter service in 2018 through 2020 in the 195, 190 and 175 subtypes each year.
We had the opportunity to preview the prototype for this interior in May while visiting EMB’s Florida offices, but the viewing was put off the record in anticipation of the FAS reveal. We were impressed.
The YouTube video linked above shows the most notable feature at about 1:45: the staggered first class section. For anyone who has flown the current generation E-Jet, you will know that first class is 1×2, a reduction in the 2×2 coach seating. We’ve always complained that the overhead bin on the one-seat side was reduced to a fairly useless size (we joked that it barely could accommodate a water bottle). The design for first now allows for 2×2 seating.
Posted on July 14, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Here are orders that were announced on the first official day of the Farnborough Air Show (at least the ones we’ve seen from Seattle–feel free to add to the list if we’ve missed any):
Things of note:
The sniping between Airbus and Boeing continues:
Posted on July 14, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
The unexpected pre-Farnborough Air Show announcement by Bombardier for letters of intent for up to 24 CS100s is welcome news for the company and the program.
Although an announcement by Falko Regional Aircraft Leasing of a firm order would have been more welcome, history shows that LOIs tend to be converted into firm orders eventually, whether these are from Airbus, Boeing, Embraer–or Bombardier. With the Falko LOI, BBD now has 471 firm orders and commitments for the CSeries.
Hand-wringing headlines and stories over May’s engine incident in which a Pratt & Whitney P1000G Geared Turbo Fan during a CSeries ground test and the assumed hugely negative impact on the program these stories and headlines suggest are way overblown.
Posted on July 13, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
The Farnborough Air Show doesn’t officially begin until Monday but companies are already in position–and Bombardier appears to be first out of the box with Letters of Intent for up to 24 CS100s from UK lessor Falko, a previous customer for the CRJ series.
The market prefers to see firm orders, but analyses of converting Options and LOIs by the Big Four OEMs demonstrates that most are converted. BBD now has 471 orders and commitments for the CSeries–203 of which are firm.
This begins our coverage of the FAS. Watch for postings planned at the end of each day UK time, but there could be others at any time.
Posted on July 12, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
A330neo more likely: The Financial Times of London has a long interview (including a five minute video) with Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier (free registration required) in which he says the launch of the A330neo is becoming more and more likely. It remains unclear (and probably unlikely) that the launch will come next week at the Farnborough Air Show, but we don’t think it will be long afterwards.
Air Lease Corp, CIT Aerospace, Delta Air Lines, AirAsiaX and Virgin Atlantic are among those that have publicly expressed interest in the neo. We’ve heard a couple of other names as well.
Although Bregier told us last month he thought the market potential was about 400-500, he says in the FT article it could be more than 1,000.
We’re told there is still some internal division over proceeding with the program, but at the same time signs are continuing to build that the decision is all but a done deal to do so.
Boeing cockpit commonality: Airbus has for years promoted cockpit commonality across its airplane line as an economic and operational advantage vs Boeing. Given the longevity of Boeing’s product development, the 7-Series hasn’t been a common cockpit, though there have been some common elements.
With the development of the 737 MAX and the 777X, this “disadvantage,” if you want to call it that, is diminishing. In a recent interview with Boeing’s Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing, we asked about this. His response:
I don’t think there is any question that over time we have worked to raise the bar across the flight decks, worked to have common training and transition times and we have minimized transition times. We seamlessly transition from the 737NG to the MAX. We have leveraged the 787 and we have continually moved for more commonality. The 787 and 777 have common type ratings. You take your recurrent training in every other simulator training time. With 777X we will look to gain [even] more commonality. You have to find the right mix between commonality and capabilities.
It’s important but not the biggest swinger in the campaign. It doesn’t drive the answer in an economic campaign.
Monarch Airlines, Boeing and Bombardier: Monarch’s widely reported (but still unofficial) selection of Boeing’s 737 MAX for its re-fleeting probably means Bombardier won’t get a slice of this order, a huge disappointment to BBD, which put up a good fight for the deal. Airbus is the incumbent and this will be an important flip for Boeing. BBD was hoping to get a slice of the pie in any Boeing win for the larger mainline jet, with the CSeries taking the smaller end. But we’re hearing Boeing’s ability to offer better commercial terms for a sweeping package aced out BBD’s ability–or lack of it–to offer a similar commercial deal. BBD had hoped for the deal for next week’s Farnborough Air Show. Instead, the headlines will go to Boeing.
Our Farnborough coverage: Leeham News and Comment will be at the FAS, with reporting by our new European associate. Watch for reporting at the end of each day (UK time).
Posted on July 8, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
The Farnborough Air Show is just around the corner, and we don’t expect the event to be especially newsworthy.
Here are our expectations for the show:
Airbus
Market expectations are that Airbus will launch the A330neo at the air show, and we know John Leahy, COO of Customers, would like to do so at this event. His bosses, Fabrice Bregier and Tom Enders, have been less than encouraging that this announcement could come at the show.
Although news stories last week indicated Airbus’ board may green light the program in advance of the FAS, it was nonetheless reported that a formal public launch may not be made at the show. So what might happen? An “Authority to Offer,” or ATO, might be how Airbus proceeds. We don’t think there will be firm orders ready to go when the FAS begins July 14—although certainly Airbus could also take Boeing’s 777X approach and announce “commitments” as was done at the Dubai Air Show.
We are skeptical whether there might be any A330 Classic orders announced, as customers await the neo. We certainly expect the usual orders for the A320 Family. We expect A350 orders. We’re doubtful of A380 orders.
Posted on July 7, 2014 by Scott Hamilton