Part 2 of two parts.
With multiples and multiples of billions of dollars at stake to develop new airplanes, and the billions of dollars of cost overruns at risk, it’s understandable the Airbus and Boeing are shifting to looking at derivatives and incremental improvements now for the lower-risk and ability to “harvest” technology across family lines.
This is hardly new. Airframers have been doing this since the Douglas DC-1 prototype begot the DC-2, which led to the DC-3. The Douglas DC-4 was the basis for the DC-6 and DC-7, for which there were A, B and C versions. Lockheed revamped the L-049 Constellation through several major upgrades (the -649, 749, 1049 and 1649, with several sub-sub-types in between). Convair created the CV-240 and revised it twice with the CV-340 and 440. The Martin 202 became the 303 (dumped after design issues with the 202) and the 404.
The trend continued into the jet age. Douglas created the DC-8-10/20/30/40/50 on the same basic airframe and really went to town with the DC-8 Super 60 Series. The DC-9-10 became the -20/30/40/50, the Super 80 (in four variants) and the basis for the MD-90 and MD-95. Boeing’s ground-breaking 707-120 became the 138/227/320B/C, the 707-020 (more commonly known as the 720), the C-135/KC-135 and a number of other military variants. The fuselage was the basis of the 727, 737 and 757. And so on. (Text continues below the photo.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
European manufacturers of the early jet age followed the same pattern. There were four commercial versions intended for the deHavilland Comet. The Hawker Siddeley came in multiple versions, as did the British Aircraft Corp. BAC-111.
Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: China’s civil aviation, from nothing to world’s largest in 2030
Introduction
By Bjorn Fehrm
14 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: In my ISTAT Asia reports, I wrote about how China will overtake USA as largest civil aviation market in 2030. Airbus China Group chairman, Laurence Barron, and I had a chat after his ISTAT presentation where he described China’s evolution as a civil aviation market and how Airbus gradually worked itself from a late and hesitant start to today’s split of the market with Boeing.
Barron provided his slides, some of which we will use to review how China grew from virtually no civil aviation after the Chinese revolution in 1949 to the world’s largest market by 2030. We will also look at what aircraft have made up this growth and finally describe how Airbus progressed from a latecomer in 1985 to sharing the market with Boeing today.
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19 Comments
Posted on May 14, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Bjorn's Corner, Boeing, China, Douglas Aircraft Co, Leeham News and Comment, McDonnell Douglas
707, A310, Airbus, Boeing, EADS
Airliner retirement age in the wake of low fuel prices
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 31, 2015: We have received an update for Avolon’s “Aircraft retirement and storage trends” whitepaper from September 2012. In the age of changing fuel prices it makes for interesting reading as the author, Avolon’s Head of Strategy Dick Forsberg, includes the effects of fuel price changes in his analysis.
The analysis uses data from Ascends database up until 31 Dec 2014 to make its conclusions:
– Retirement age for jets remain stable with 60% of mainline aircraft still active after 25 years.
– Regional jets retire earlier, the 60% active age is 20 years.
– Behind early retirements of certain aircraft is first of type versions which have limitations in airframe or engines.
– Old aircraft and those who are stored more than two years don’t make it back from the desert.
– With continued low fuel prices deferred retirements would increase but still constitute less than 10% of new aircraft production. Read more
7 Comments
Posted on March 31, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Douglas Aircraft Co, Embrarer, Leasing
737, 757, 777, A320, A330, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, Emirates Airlines
World’s dud airliners: a poll of your choices
Dec. 29, 2014: Now’s your chance to vote on what you think are the world’s dud airliners. Here are the parameters:
You may vote for more than one airplane.
Read more
13 Comments
Posted on December 29, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Douglas Aircraft Co, McDonnell Douglas
717, 737-600, 747, 757-300, 767-400, Airbus, Boeing, Bristol, Britannia, Canadair, Comet, Convair, CV-880, CV-990, Dassualt, DC-4 M2, de Havilland, Douglas Aircraft Co, Electra, Handley Page, IL-96, Ilyushin, Lockheed, Martin 202, McDonnell Douglas, Mercure, Nord, Nord 262, Stratocuiser, Trident, Tupolev, Vanguard, VC-10, Vickers
World’s dud airliners
While we’re in the slow-news Holidays, we thought we’d have some irreverent fun. There have been many attempts at building airliners. There are the obvious successes but there have been many, many failures. Starting with the end of World War II, we’ve collected the following for our nominees for duds–sales or technological failures. We invite readers to make their own nominations. If you have photos, add them to your Comments.
This list is in no particular order. Next week we’ll construct a poll to see how the airplanes rank. Read more
74 Comments
Posted on December 23, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, China, Comac, Douglas Aircraft Co
707, 727, 880, 990, Airbus, Airlift, American Airlines, ARJ21, AVIC, BEA, BOAC, Boeing, Braniff Airlines, Bristol, Britannia, British European Airlines, Budd, Canadair, CL-44, Comac, Comet, Constoga, Convair, Dassualt, DC-4 M2, DC-8, de Havilland, Electra, Flying Tiger, Fokker-VFW, Fokker-VFW 614, Howard Hughes, Lockheed, Lockheed Electra, Loftleider, Martin, Martin 202, Martin 303, Martin 404, Mercure, Seaboard World, Stratocruiser, Trident, TWA, United Airlines
Odds and Ends: 787 donation; Alenia sues Bombardier over CSeries; 2016 777 delivery slots opening up
787 donation: The Boeing Co. handed over 787 test airplane #3 (ZA003) to the Museum of Flight Saturday in an elaborate ceremony marking an unprecedented donation of a modern airliner to an aviation museum.
Boeing 787 ZA003, which went on a world sales tour, was donated to Seattle’s Museum of Flight Nov. 8, 2014. The logos of customers bracket the #2 door. Photo by Leeham News and Comment. click to enlage.
To be sure, the donation was made possible by the fact that ZA003 (and 002 and 001) can’t be sold due to the massive rework necessary, and these three airplanes have been written off for more than $2bn. But this doesn’t make the event any less significant.
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12 Comments
Posted on November 9, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Douglas Aircraft Co, GE Aviation, Leeham News and Comment, Rolls-Royce
707, 727, 737, 747, 787, Air Force One, Air India. 777, Alenia, Boeing, Boeing 40A, Bombardier, Concorde, CSeries, DC-3, Douglas, GE Aviation, GEnx, Lockheed Constellation, Museum of Flight, Rolls-Royce, Shen, Trent 1000, ZA001, ZA002, ZA003
New and Derivative Airplanes: Some good, some not: Part 2
Part 2 of two parts.
With multiples and multiples of billions of dollars at stake to develop new airplanes, and the billions of dollars of cost overruns at risk, it’s understandable the Airbus and Boeing are shifting to looking at derivatives and incremental improvements now for the lower-risk and ability to “harvest” technology across family lines.
This is hardly new. Airframers have been doing this since the Douglas DC-1 prototype begot the DC-2, which led to the DC-3. The Douglas DC-4 was the basis for the DC-6 and DC-7, for which there were A, B and C versions. Lockheed revamped the L-049 Constellation through several major upgrades (the -649, 749, 1049 and 1649, with several sub-sub-types in between). Convair created the CV-240 and revised it twice with the CV-340 and 440. The Martin 202 became the 303 (dumped after design issues with the 202) and the 404.
The trend continued into the jet age. Douglas created the DC-8-10/20/30/40/50 on the same basic airframe and really went to town with the DC-8 Super 60 Series. The DC-9-10 became the -20/30/40/50, the Super 80 (in four variants) and the basis for the MD-90 and MD-95. Boeing’s ground-breaking 707-120 became the 138/227/320B/C, the 707-020 (more commonly known as the 720), the C-135/KC-135 and a number of other military variants. The fuselage was the basis of the 727, 737 and 757. And so on. (Text continues below the photo.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
European manufacturers of the early jet age followed the same pattern. There were four commercial versions intended for the deHavilland Comet. The Hawker Siddeley came in multiple versions, as did the British Aircraft Corp. BAC-111.
Read more
65 Comments
Posted on October 7, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Douglas Aircraft Co, McDonnell Douglas
737, 737 MAX, 777-8, 777LR, A340, A340-500, A340-600, Airbus, BAC-111, Boeing, Bombardier, British Aircraft Corp., Comet, CRJ, Dash 8, DC-8, DC-8 Super 60, deHavilland, E-Jet, E-Jet E2, Embraer
CNAC reunion features surviving WW II pilot, C-47/DC-3
This past weekend we attended a reunion of two of the living pilots, descendents, friends and interested public of the China National Aviation Corp. at the San Francisco International Airport.
We did a detailed write-up for CNN.com. This story and some photos are here.
There was a lot that didn’t fit into the CNN article, for space and for the thrust of the article. In a departure from our usual aviation coverage, we’re sharing the experience below.
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2 Comments
Posted on September 9, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airlines, Douglas Aircraft Co
airlines, China National Aviation Corp, CNAC, Historic Flight Foundation, John Sessions, Moon Chin, Pete Goutiere
Throwback to the 1930s
This weekend we’re heading to San Francisco in style–1930s style. We will be on the Historic Flight Foundation’s Douglas DC-3 from Everett Paine Field to SFO for a reunion of the China National Aviation Corp., CNAC, including a 100-year old veteran of the airline.
We’ll be on HFF’s DC-3, the only surviving CNAC plane, which is today painted in the colors of Pan American World Airways from the era. PAA owned a piece of CNAC before World War II.
This Douglas DC-3, owned by the Historic Flight Foundation, was operated at one time by China’s CNAC and later as an executive aircraft. It still has the executive interior and panoramic windows of the executive configuration. Photo by Gail Twelves.
The plane eventually became an executive transport and the executive interior is still in it.
The flight will be about four hours each way. This will be the third time we’ve taken a ride on the aircraft, and this will be the longest. Previous rides were an hour long.
Look for our report from the trip on CNN.com, International, Travel next week as well as some additional information here.
8 Comments
Posted on September 4, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Douglas Aircraft Co
CNAC, DC-3, Douglas, Douglas DC-3, Historic Flight Foundation, Pan Am, Pan American World Airways
An alternative air show
The Farnborough Air Show got all the headlines this month, but we went to a small air show in Everett (WA), right at Paine Field, where Boeing dominates.
The Historic Flight Foundation is the brainchild of John Sessions, who has put together a private collection of all-airworthy airplanes. It’s also near by the Paul Allen (yes, the Microsoft Paul Allen) collection of airworthy airplanes at the Flying Heritage Museum and across the field from the restoration center of the Museum of Flight, which is at Boeing Field.
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6 Comments
Posted on July 28, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Boeing, Douglas Aircraft Co
B-25 "Grumpy", B-29, Beech 18, Beech C-45, Boeing, Commemorative Air Force, DC-3, Douglas DC-3, Fifi, Historic Flight Foundation, North American B-25 Mitchell, Orcas Island
Farborough Air Show, July 16: Snipe hunts in an era of model improvements
It doesn’t matter what the competition does, it’s always inferior–until you do it yourself.
The continued, and tiring, war of words between Airbus and Boeing throughout the decades is monotonous and self-serving. If you step back, it’s also amusing.
Consider:
And so it goes.
The fact of the matter is, however, that minor and major makeovers of existing airplanes have long been a fact of life, maximizing investment and keeping research and development costs under control. The Douglas DC-1 was the prototype for the DC-2, which begot the DC-3. The DC-4 (C-54) begot the DC-6, DC-6B and DC-7 series. The Lockheed Contellation was reworked from the original L-049 through the 647/749/1049 (in various versions) and finally the 1649.
Then came the jet age, with vastly more expense, and model upgrades became the norm. The sniping today between Airbus and Boeing goes unabated in an era of historical model improvements.
Read more
39 Comments
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Douglas Aircraft Co
707, 727, 727-200 Advanced, 737, 737 MAX, 747, 777, 777X, 787, A300, A330, A330neo, A340, A350-1000, Airbus, Boeing, DC-1, DC-2, DC-3, DC-4, DC-6, DC-7, DC-8, DC-9, Douglas, MD-90
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