Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier is working hard to get additional mainline airline customers for its C Series project. The latest discussion is whether Delta Air Lines would replace its fleet of Boeing MD-88s with the C Series.
Figure 1. C Series largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.
In this context, it’s also discussed if the largest model, the CS300, Figure 1, is large enough for Delta. This aircraft seats 135 passengers in a two class configuration and up to 160 passengers in an all economy high density version.
The question is whether this is sufficient for Delta and other mainline customers, or if a still larger version is needed in the program, the oft-discussed CS500. We decided to use our proprietary aircraft model to see if a CS500 would be straight forward for Bombardier to develop, should Delta or any other customer ask for a three model C Series program.
Summary
- The C Series aircraft program was developed with the CS300 as the main model. The wing, engine and landing gear were dimensioned with the CS300 in mind.
- The CS100 is a shrink of the CS300, and not vice versa (the CS300 a stretch of the CS100).
- A tentative CS500 stretch if therefore a first stretch of the program’s main model and not a double stretch of a CS100.
- This is evident when one starts to analyze how a CS500 would be designed. There are rather modest changes that need to be done to create an extended model that seat up to 180 passengers.
Alcoa lowers guidance, cites slowing jet sales, production ramp up
April 13, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Alcoa, a major supplier to Airbus and Boeing, lowered its 2016 guidance on anticipated lower demand for aluminum on lower orders for legacy commercial airliners and a slower than expected transition to new airplanes.
In a first quarter earnings call Monday, Alcoa didn’t specify which of the Big Two OEMs it was thinking of, or whether these might have been Bomabrdier and Embraer, for which it also is a supplier. But Sam Pearlstein, the aerospace analyst for Wells Fargo, believes it is Airbus and the A320/A350 programs.
“Alcoa reduced 2016 aerospace global sales growth guidance to 6-8% from 8-9% with large commercial aircraft growth now expected to be about 9% (vs. 15% previous forecast) largely due to lower orders for legacy models and a ”more careful” ramp-up of new models (which we presume means A320NEO and A350),” Pearlstein wrote in a note published yesterday.
Bjorn’s Corner: Embraer’s Fly-by-wire approach
By Bjorn Fehrm
08 April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Two weeks ago we discussed the advantages of a Fly-By-Wire (FBW) system which uses feedback based flight laws. We discussed the fact that aircraft OEMs can get the desired FBW handling characteristics with smaller horizontal tail surfaces. I put forward the Embraer E-Jets as an example where the change of FBW principle allowed a 26% reduction in the horizontal tail size for the E2 generation.
At the time there were some debate on how this was achieved and what the root cause of the improvement was. Embraer followed the discussion and told me when I contacted them that my information was correct. In the interest of our readers, Embraer agreed, however, to have their FBW team to give a more complete picture of the advantages of a feedback based FBW.
Here is the team’s response. Read more
PW Canada continues next-gen turboprop development despite airplane demand uncertainty
Pratt & Whitney Canada’s next generation turboprop. Source: PWC. Click on image to enlarge.
March 24, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Pratt & Whitney Canada (PWC) continues development of the next generation turboprop engine, even as low oil prices reduce the attractiveness of turboprop airplanes.
Few believe oil prices won’t creep back up over time, once again making prop-jets attractive once again. The ancillary question is what’s next for this type airplane? An entirely new, clean-sheet design? A 90-100 seat turboprop airplane? Or retrofitting this next-gen engine on today’s turboprop airliners?
Summary
- PWC’s new engine could be fitted to a new airplane design or retrofitted to today’s Bombardier Q400 and ATR series airplanes.
- The 20-year market is small.
- The 20-year market for a 90-seat turboprop is smaller still.
- Embraer is evaluating whether to reenter the turboprop market, 15 years after the last mass-produced Brasilia rolled off the assembly line.
- GE is developing a turboprop engine and at least three countries have interest in this sector.
Nordic Aviation Capital completes second major acquistion
March 15, 2016: Nordic Aviation Capital yesterday announced it acquired regional aircraft lessor Jetscape Aviation Group. This is the second major acquisition since 
December. Then, NAC agreed to acquire 25 ATR turboprop aircraft from Air Lease Corp., which decided to focus entirely on jets, most of which are mainline aircraft. All but a handful of the ATRs were already leased, with the remaining still in production.
Nordic had nearly 250 aircraft from the ATR and Bombardier Dash and Q families, plus a small number of Bombardier CRJs, Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s. The Jetscape acquisition brings Embraer EJets to the Nordic portfolio.
“The deal will see Nordic Aviation Capital expand into the regional jet arena, bringing 28 owned Embraer E-Jets, commitments for 11 E-Jets and a further 18 of the type under management into its sizeable regional aircraft portfolio,” the company said in a press release.
Embraer weighs in against Honeywell-UTC merger
Fred Curado, CEO of Embraer
March 1, 2016, © Leeham Co. Embraer joined Airbus and Boeing in opposing the potential acquisition by Honeywell of United Technologies Corp.
- We’re at the 2016 ISTAT AGM in Phoenix and will be reporting on presentations and news from the sidelines.
- Update, 0800 MST: Honeywell withdrew its $90bn bid for United Technologies, it was announced this morning.
UTC rejected the merger—which came to light last week—but it is unclear if Honeywell will continue to pursue the idea.
ISTAT Day 1: Engine updates for CFM, GE, RR and PW
Feb. 29, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: The LEAP engine, for the Boeing 737 MAX, Airbus 
A320neo and COMAC C919 is the fastest-selling engine in history, says Jean-Paul Ebanga, the president of CFM International. More than 10,000 have been sold.
- We’re at the 2016 ISTAT AGM in Phoenix and will be reporting today and tomorrow on presentations and news from the sidelines.
“It’s on-time and on-spec,” Ebanga said. It’s either been on the date set four years ago or ahead of schedule. The engines delivered to Airbus for the A320neo are on spec, he said. It’s been certified for the neo and will be certified soon for the MAX, with 90% of the information submitted.
Video from the Embraer E190-E2 rollout
Feb. 25, 2016: Here’s some video coverage of the Embraer E190-E2 rollout events.
https://youtu.be/afTP9qsyZ5g
Pictorial from Embraer E190-E2 rollout
Feb. 25, 2016: Embraer rolled out its E190-E2 to a series of fly-bys of EMB aircraft ranging from a crop duster to the KC-390, hundreds of invited guests and media and thousands of its employees.
Here are some photos from the rollout.
E190-E2 No. 1, rolled out Feb. 25, 2016.