Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Major fleet decisions may not be positive for Airbus, Boeing
Pontifications is off this week.
Subscription Required
Introduction
March 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: There are some major fleet decisions that will probably come down the pike this year at American, Delta and United airlines. Not all of them are going to be viewed positively by Airbus and Boeing.
There is also a serious warning sign emerging from the Middle East that could have serious, negative impacts on Airbus and Boeing.
Summary
- American Airlines doesn’t want its Airbus A350-900s any more. Consolidation with US Airways appears to have made these surplus.
- Delta Air Lines, which so far eschewed any orders for the Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes, is understood to be readying a Request for Proposals to be issued this year.
- United Airlines doesn’t want its Airbus A350-1000s any more. Picking up cheap Boeing 777-300ERs appear to have made these surplus.
- Emirates Airlines, reacting to Brexit and Donald Trump’s travel bans, is undertaking a full business review in response to a sharp drop in bookings.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we showed graphs of the yearly flight hours for engines on single-aisle aircraft. Now we will deduce the market for engine overhauls from these graphs.
These will show which engines generate a maintenance volume that is interesting for engine overhaul companies and which engines are niche.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
Based on the market size, we will then go through how an engine is maintained when new, mature and at end-of-life.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines maintenance, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 10, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we started the series how airline turbofans are maintained. We described the typical work scopes and what the intervals were for different single-aisle engines.
Before we can describe the engine maintenance market we must get a feel for the market size for different engine types.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
We will start with understanding the single-aisle engine maintenance market. Read more
Engine OEMs diverge on technology for next generation
March 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Representatives of the four major commercial engine
GE9X, the final engine in a decade-long engine renewal program for GE Aviation and CFM International
manufacturers have divergent views of the next round of engine development, either for the Middle of the Market/New Mid-range Airplane (NMA) or New Small Airplanes (NSA) coming in the next decade.
Officials of CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce appeared at the annual ISTAT conference in San Diego yesterday.
PW’s Rick Deurloo, SVP of Sales, Marketing Commercial Engines, had the added task of dealing with the highly-publicized teething issues surrounding its new Geared Turbo Fan engine on the Airbus A320neo.
CSeries trans-Atlantic capability
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
February 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We previously described how new generation engines make the Boeing 737 MAX 8 a trans-Atlantic aircraft. The MAX 8 is smaller than the Airbus A321LR, but not the smallest single-aisle with trans-Atlantic capability. This distinction goes to the Bombardier CSeries.
We wrote about the CS100 capability to cross the Atlantic from London City Airport last year. After the article, we received new and improved data from Bombardier. The CS100 can now fly directly to US East Coast on the difficult westward leg with a business cabin of 42 seats. The updated article is here.
When we look at the improved capabilities of the CS300 (announced at Farnborough Air show last summer), this aircraft can also cross the Atlantic with a full cabin of 130 passengers.
Bombardier arranged so we could discuss this deeper with the VP CSeries program, Rob Dewar.
Summary:
- We use our aircraft performance model to compare the CS300’s suitability for long-haul to the Airbus and Boeing competition.
- The aircraft have similar range and seat mile costs. The smaller aircraft have lower trip costs.
- With Rob Dewar, we explored the potential for additional capability for the CS300.
Bombardier YE2016 results better than expected
Alain Bellemare, CEO of Bombardier.
Feb. 16, 2017: Bombardier today posted better than expected results (even on lower revenue) for the fourth quarter and full year.
Goldman Sachs was first out with reaction among the analyst reports LNC receives:
|
BBD’s press release is here. The financial presentation from today’s earnings call is here.
Singapore 777-9 order pressures, but does not kill A380
Feb. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week’s order by Singapore Airlines for 20 Boeing 777-9s and 19 Boeing 787-10s immediately was viewed by some as the death
Boeing 777-9.
knell for the Airbus A380.
The 777-9 order would start the final spiral down for the A380, some contend.
This overstates the case and misunderstands the nature of the order.
The A380 is in trouble, there no doubt about that. The 777-9 is putting pressure on the A380. There’s no doubt about this, either. But the contention the Singapore 777-9 order sends the A380 on a death spiral is wild fantasy.
An Airbus official appears today at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) in Lynnwood (WA). Undoubtedly, he will maintain the party line that the future of the A380 is solid. This, too, overstates the case. There can be a future for the airplane, but some major decisions must be made.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 3, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we went through how our airliner engine reacts to the different phases of flight, including what happens when we operate in a hot environment.
We also showed how engine manufacturers make a series of engines with different thrust ratings by de-rating the strongest version through the engine control computer.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
We will now look deeper at how engines are controlled and why so-called flat-rating is important. Read more
MRJ regional jet delayed until mid-2020
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 23, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Mitsubishi announced a further two years delay of the MRJ regional jet project in a press conference in Tokyo today.
The 90-seater variant of the aircraft will be delivered to the first customer, All Nippon Airways (ANA), mid-2020.
The previous scheduled Entry Into Service (EIS) of mid 2018, was announced December 2015. In total, the MRJ program has announced five delays, totaling seven years. Read more
Assessing the MC-21 future
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Russia’s Irkut designed a mainline jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families that, from a passenger experience
Irkut MC-21 at roll-out. Photo via Google images.
viewpoint, is the best in class.
The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320 (which is wider than the 737). Seats and the aisle are the widest in the class. The overhead bin space is plentiful.
But the airplane is hampered by its environment: Russia itself.
Summary
Read more
Leave a Comment
Posted on February 13, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, China, Comac, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, United Aircraft
737, A320, Airbus, ARJ-21, Boeing, C919, C929, Irkut, MC-21