Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 26. June 13, 2025
- Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044 June 12, 2025
- Paris Air Show preview: Don’t look for big news June 11, 2025
- P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane June 11, 2025
A lost decade for aircraft manufacturers, suppliers
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Introduction
By Judson Rollins, Bjorn Fehrm & Scott Hamilton
Sept. 21, 2020, © Leeham News: Commercial aviation is facing a lost decade due to COVID.
Yes, most forecasts target 2024-2025 as returning to 2019 passenger traffic and aircraft production levels.
However, LNA in July published its own analysis indicating full recovery may not occur until 2028. Breathless headlines notwithstanding, it will take years for vaccines to be widely available and considered safe by enough of the world’s population. Growing concern about vaccine production and distribution capacity through 2024 underscores this view. Even Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly said earlier this month that business travel might not fully return for a decade.
Indeed, the 2020s may well be a lost decade for aircraft manufacturers and their supply chains.
Summary
- Debt-laden airlines will have little money to order new airplanes
- Interest in re-engined 787, A350 likely nil this decade
- Airbus, Boeing, Embraer have little interest in launching new programs
- Engine makers too financially stretched to develop new designs
- Engineering talent, knowledge will be decimated by inevitable job reductions
- OEMs must “play the long game” at a short-term cost to safeguard their futures
Pontifications: Last production DC-6 destined to USA
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 21, 2020, © Leeham News: A Texas man with an affinity for the Douglas DC-6 purchased the last production model, DC-6B that is still in its original passenger configuration.
The last Douglas DC-6 produced has been stored since 2010. It’s now owned by a Texas man. Source: DC-6 Association of Africa.
The DC-6B, delivered in the waning months of 1958, is the sister ship to the famous Red Bull DC-6B that continues to be flown occasionally at air shows.
This DC-6B, registration V5-NCG, has been stored in Namibia since 2010. It once was the presidential airplane for Yugoslav’s leader, Marshal Josip Tito. The plane was then donated to the Zambian government as the presidential aircraft for Kenneth Kuanda. This aircraft and the sister ship were purchased by Namibian Commercial Airlines (NCA). The sister ship, the second-to-the-last built, was sold to Red Bull. The proceeds were used to restore V5-NCG.
More recently, it served in tourist charter work. The aircraft has the original interior. This is a rarity in restored piston airliners.
James Mac Ivor owns Nighthawk Air Systems Inc. near San Antonio. COVID-19 delayed plans to return the airplane to the air. He also still must raise funds.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 9. Hydrogen Gas Turbines
September 18, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on hydrogen as an energy store for airliners we analyze the conversion of the present Turbofan and Turboprop airliner engines to hydrogen as fuel instead of carbon-based fuels.
We know it’s possible as the world’s first jet engine from 1937 ran on hydrogen, Figure 1. But what are the problems and how good are the hydrogen-fueled engines in efficiency and emissions?
Figure 1. The world’s first jet engine, Hans von Ohain’s He S-1. The engine’s aerodynamics is pictured below the cut-through. Note the skewed hydrogen injector at c. Source: Wikipedia.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 7, The A380
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
All Nippon Airways’ Flying Honu A380 livery
Sep. 17th, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of the A340-600 and the 777-300ER on the Los Angeles to Shanghai route. We now turn our attention to the last major bet on a quad-engine aircraft, Airbus’ Superjumbo A380.
Summary
- An extended market study to go after the Queen of the Skies;
- Supersized launch and development;
- A program on life support for several years;
- What went wrong;
- Analyzing two-stage Boeing response on a trunk route.
HOTR: Adjusting Airbus and Boeing orderbooks
By the Leeham News Staff
Sept. 15, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing has removed hundreds of 737 MAX orders from its order book. While some were direct cancellations from customers, most came through ASC 606 adjustments.
Airbus does not publish such order adjustments by aircraft program in its monthly order and deliveries report. The European OEM publishes a total outstanding amount of contracts for commercial aircraft in its annual reports. However, the figure does not have a breakdown by program.
As a result, Airbus and Boeing order books aren’t an apple to apple comparison. The COVID-induced traffic slump has had a significant impact on airlines’ financial situation. Therefore, adjusting order books is necessary to assess an aircraft program’s backlog situation.
Pontifications: Boeing SC makes its case for 787 production consolidation—and it favors Everett
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 14, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing’s South Carolina 787 final assembly plant has made its case whether to consolidate production in one location, or not.
The conclusion favors retaining dual assembly lines, retaining one in Everett.
This click-bait lead doesn’t mean Boeing SC management favors retaining dual assembly lines. Far from it.
Why is the 737 MAX safe now when it wasn’t before?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 14, 2020, © Leeham News: The FAA and EASA Safety of Flight authorities have examined and test flown the changes Boeing has done to the 737 MAX to make it safe to fly again. Everything points to these authorities re-certifying the 737 MAX as safe to fly in the coming months.
In a Saturday article Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times quotes from a recent interview with me and an experienced 737 Captain, Mike Gerzanics, where we both say we consider the MAX safe to fly with the changes.
Here my reasons as an aeronautical engineer why I think so.
Summary
- The original design of a smoothing software for the 737 MAX flight control system was badly implemented.
- It’s not the changes to the 737 MAX base aircraft that makes it unsafe, such as larger engines, it was an unusually sloppy implementation of the smoothing software, called MCAS, that was flawed.
- MCAS is now properly implemented and tested. This returns the 737 to the safe aircraft it was before MCAS was implemented.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 8. Fuel cell electric or Turbofan propulsion?
September 11, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on Hydrogen as an energy store for airliners we look at whether we use an LH2 burning Turbofan as propulsion or as the EU study proposed, a Parallel Hybrid feed by a fuel cell, Figure 1.
Figure 1. The Parallel Hybrid 165 seat aircraft from the EU Hydrogen study. Source: EU.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 6. The A340-600 versus the 777-300ER.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 10, 2020, © Leeham News: The Airbus A340-600 was designed to challenge Boeing’s hold of the large, long-haul jets. With a capacity 60 seats above the previous largest Airbus jet, the A340-300, and a 7,500nm range, it should put Airbus firmly on the long-haul map.
The A340-600 would be flying its 350 passengers as long and for a lower cost than the 20 seats larger Boeing 747-400, the then-largest long-haul Boeing jet. It would have worked hadn’t Boeing upgraded the 777-300 to the 777-300ER and surpassed the spec. How much better did that make the 777-300ER when it arrived in 2004?
Summary
- The A340-600 could take almost as many passengers as the Boeing 747-400 and fly these to the same distance.
- In addition, it loaded more LD3 cargo containers and burned only three-quarters of the fuel of a 747-400.
- But the advantage of the A340-600 was shortlived. Only two years later Boeing responded with the 777-300ER which bettered the Airbus on almost all accounts.
HOTR: Boeing bear case: $73bn revenue drop 2020-2025
By the Leeham News Staff
Sept. 9, 2020, © Leeham News: Morgan Stanley has a new aerospace analyst, Kristine Liwag, who initiated coverage on a half dozen companies over two days last week.
Among them, of course, was Boeing.
One of the conclusions in one of her notes:
“Assuming that some orders for growth and those ordered by lessors are cancelled in the 2020-2025 timeframe, we estimate that there is $73bn downside risk to Boeing’s revenue from 2020-2025. We note that our Bull case scenario assumes that the entire current order book converts to revenue.”
Liwag and her team also write, “there is an underappreciated risk that Boeing is particularly vulnerable to cancellations as the 737 MAX grounding (March 2019) opened up cancellation rights (without penalty) for aircraft deliveries that were delayed a year.”
But Morgan Stanley doesn’t let Airbus off the hook
“Boeing and Airbus manufacture aircraft to an order book. White tails, which are aircraft without owners, are uncommon and undesired. When demand is strong and the production skyline is sold out, as we have seen in the past few years, a new aircraft is a scarce commodity that airlines and lessors want. In times of uncertainty, a new aircraft, with a capital cost of $50mn-$200mn per unit, becomes a white elephant.”