Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pratt & Whitney committed to advanced GTF for Airbus
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By Scott Hamilton
March 30, 2020, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney is concurrently developing what might be termed the next generation GTF. This is an advancement over the current engine, but with more thrust and better fuel economics.
Deurloo eschews the usual Performance Improvement Package (PIP) moniker, however.
“We have been discussing with Airbus for some time, an improvement to the current configuration or our expected configuration,” Deurloo said. “I think that’s a testament to the geared architecture. It’s given us some runway to do a little bit more on that engine.
PW has been in conversation with Airbus for the last few years about an engine that will take configuration at the end of this year, and put in an improvement.
Summary
- New name, better economics, better durability.
- Designed for the A321XLR, but greater flexibility.
- Fixing current issues.
Pontifications: Critical step in Boeing MAX recertification target: May
By Scott Hamilton
March 30, 2020, © Leeham News: Barring further issues, the FAA Type Inspection Authorization for the MAX is targeted for the second half of May, LNA learned.
This is a critical step in recertifying the airplane.
Also barring more unexpected events in a year filled with them, Boeing should resume production of the 737 MAX in May, LNA confirmed.
Bjorn’s Corner: Why e in ePlane shall stand for environment, Part 15. Carbon-neutral fuels.
March 27, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In this week’s Corner, we analyze the use of carbon-neutral fuels for airliner use.
Almost all variants of carbon-neutral fuels have the “drop-in” advantage, they can replace our regular jet fuel in a mixed capacity or entirely with none or minimal changes to our present aircraft and their engines.
It’s a big subject, and I will use the next Corners to explain the key alternatives, their production process, and what benefits and problems they bring.
Figure 1. airbp is distributing bio-jet fuel produced by Neste. Source: BP
Embraer had a better 2019 than 2018
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 26, 2020, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented its full-year 2019 results today and held an analyst call with the CEO, Francisco Gomes Neto, and the CFO, Antonio Carlos Garcia. The company posted a loss, but the underlying operational performance was a definite improvement over 2018.
The major part of the loss came from extra costs for the formation of a separate Commercial Aircraft division for the joint venture with Boeing. To understand Embraer’s position in these difficult times, we will separate the analysis of the 2019 results in three parts:
- The operational results for 2019
- The costs and effects of the carve-out for the Boeing joint-venture
- The actions by management to work through the Covid-19 crisis
Can the A321XLR fly trans-Oceanic routes, Part 2?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 26, 2020, © Leeham News: We are checking if the Airbus A321XLR is usable for trans-Oceanic routes. It’s a credible trans-Atlantic aircraft, but can it be used effectively over the Pacific Ocean as well?
Last week we found a one-stop routing that worked. Now we compare the economics of flying the A321XLR on a one-stop route versus a longer-range aircraft like the Airbus A330-900 non-stop.
Summary:
- The A330-900 covers our US West Coast to Japan trip in almost half the time of our single-aisle route over Honolulu.
- Will it also have a lower per-seat cost? We find out using our airliner operating cost model.
The meaning and consequences of frozen credit markets
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 26, 2020, © Leeham News: Credit markets are effectively frozen for many businesses, Boeing said this week.
That’s why the company asked Congress for $60bn in federal aid for itself and the aerospace industry as part of the $2 trillion emergency stimulus package. Although the bill, which at this writing is awaiting Congressional approval, doesn’t name Boeing specifically, The Washington Post indicated $17bn is for Boeing.
Related article
- See this article discussing Boeing CEO David Calhoun’s comments on the company’s liquidity and ability to raise debt in the current environment. Calhoun pointed
out that credit markets aren’t open now. Boeing CFO Greg Smith made a similar comment later in the day - The current market stress has similarities but fundamentally different origins from 2008. LNA analyses its causes and consequences for airlines and OEMs.
Summary
- A different economic shock from 2008 freezes credit markets;
- Significant consequences for nonfinancial corporations;
- Airlines and OEMs at the forefront of turmoil;
- Programs to re-open credit markets;
- Long-term consequences.
HOTR: Boeing has options to federal bailout, CEO says
By the Leeham News Staff
March 25, 2020: First, Boeing CEO David Calhoun said he wasn’t an insider (after 10 years on the Board of Directors, and as lead director for many of them). No, he merely had a front row seat in the movie theatre.
Then he trashed his predecessor, Dennis Muilenburg, for stock buyback and dividend policies (that the Board approved).
Next, Boeing said it needs a portion of the $60bn in federal aid it requested for the aerospace industry.
Now, Calhoun appears to have put his foot in his mouth again. Or did he?
When asked about the possibility of the government taking an equity position in Boeing as a condition to a bailout, Calhoun said Boeing has options to federal money.
The Wall Street Journal wrote yesterday, “I don’t have a need for an equity stake,” Boeing CEO Calhoun said Tuesday on Fox Business Network. “If they forced it, we’d just look at all the other options, and we have got plenty.”
There’s a very practical reason for Boeing to object to government taking an equity stake. It would effectively shut down bidding on some key defense contracts.
But wait a minute: if you’ve got all these other options, why ask for a federal bailout for Boeing?
Or was this a message to the street that Boeing is OK?
Still, on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Calhoun said if the credit markets stayed closed for eight months, it would be tough for Boeing to remain healthy.
Boeing has $15bn in liquidity and can survive in short term; credit markets need to reopen
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing CEO David Calhoun. Source: CNBC.
March 24, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun said the company has $15bn in liquidity and can survive in the short term, but federal aid is needed as long as the credit markets aren’t open.
The US Defense Department is working to accelerate payments to Boeing, which has a large defense business. Revenue at Boeing Global Services is down as airlines across the globe shut down or sharply reduced operations.
Calhoun made his remark on CNBC’s Squawk Box today.
Boeing suspends production of wide-bodies
March 23, 2020, (c) Leeham News: Boeing today announced it will suspend production of its wide-bodies for 14 days, beginning Wednesday. 
Production slowdown begins today.
The move is in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Boeing is the last of the Big Three aircraft manufacturers to do so. Airbus last week suspended production in France and Germany, restarting slowly today. Embraer suspended production last week.
Airbus expands virus precautions across production lines, company
By Scott Hamilton
Guillaume Faury
March 23, 2022, (c) Leeham News: Airbus is working to make its production lines safe, but will have lower rates than before the coronavirus pandemic caused lockdowns in France and Spain, the CEO said today.
Airbus temporarily shut production lines in these two countries last Monday. Production resume at a low, unspecified rate. He said initially production “efficiency” may be very low.
Guillaume Faury, the CEO, however, pointed to China as perhaps an example to follow with its other lines.
The Tianjin line was shut down for several weeks as the COVID-19 virus spread across China. It recently resumed and is back near the pre-shut down level of 6/mo. Faury said 99% of the employees are back at work.
Chinese airlines are back to 30% of pre-grounding levels.
