Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
IAG is looking at leasing used A380s
By Bjorn Fehrm
18 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co in Dublin: Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG (which is the holding of Brittish Airways, IBERIA, Vueling and Air Lingus) spoke at the Growth Frontiers 2016 conference in Dublin about how the new IAG has become more agile in following market changes to opportunistically increase its operational efficiency.
Walsh gave the example of IAG’s aircraft fleets where he announced that it is looking to lease five to six used Airbus A380s in addition to the ones that British Airways (BA) already have on order. These could be aircraft for BA only use but also for a joint BA and IBERIA operation.
Pontifications: A sea change at Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 18, 2016, © Leeham Co. The surprise announcement last week of a tentative contract agreement between Boeing and its engineers union, SPEEA, was the best news coming out of the company that I’ve heard in years.
Analysis: Sukhoi’s regional jet Superjet 100
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
18 January 2016, © Leeham Co: Russian aircraft have never succeeded in penetrating the Western market. But then they never really tried, until now. They were designed for the Soviet Union captive market, including the partner states that historically participated in or were friendly to the communistic system. One comes to think of China, Egypt, Libya, Cuba and Nicaragua.
The Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company (SCAC) Superjet 100 (SSJ100) is the first Russian aircraft specifically designed from the outset to compete on a world market.
We analyse its basic design and performance in comparison to the market leader in 100 seat regional flying, Embraer’s E190.
Summary:
- The SSJ100 is a half a generation younger design than the Embraer E190. It has modern aerodynamics, IMA-based modular avionics and an advanced Fly-By-Wire system.
- The feedback-based Fly-By-Wire enables a tight aircraft design with low wetted areas.
- The SSJ100 engines, SaM146, can best be described as a shrinked and cleaned up CFM56. They have the efficiency level of the E190’s CF34-10E.
- The aerodynamics and engines combine to give the SSJ100 a single digit edge in fuel burn over the E190.
Bjorn’s Corner: What did we learn in 2015; engines
By Bjorn Fehrm
15 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we looked back on what happened in 2015 on the airframe front. We finish the retrospective by looking at what turbofan engine technology came to market in 2015. New engine technology is vital, as it is on the engine side that the quest for higher fuel efficiency has the largest successes.
While advances on the airframe side might bring an additional 5% per generation, the engines typically increase their efficiency per new generation with up to three times that value. Fuel efficiency per delivered thrust unit was improved with a whopping 15% over the engine it replaces for the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (PW GTF). It was certified for use on the Airbus A320neo in Q4 2015
The competing CFM LEAP-1A shall deliver the same improvement level to the A320neo once it is certified in the summer of this year. This engine has a smaller sister that started ground tests last year, the LEAP-1B, which is developed for the Boeing 737 MAX series.
The engine that is easily forgotten is the Rolls Royce Trent XWB. It entered service on the Airbus A350-900 during the year. It brings an improvement level of around 10% compared to the engines of the aircraft that the A350 replaces (Airbus A340/A330ceo and Boeing’s 777-200 range).
Muilenburg’s blessing on process cleared way for SPEEA contract
Dennis Muilenburg, CEO, The Boeing Co.
Jan. 14, 2016: (c) Leeham Co. Blessing a new process in contract negotiations made an agreement possible between Boeing and its engineers’ union, SPEEA, its executive director told LNC in an interview after the surprise deal was announced yesterday.
“This process would not have happened if Muilenburg hadn’t blessed it,” said Ray Goforth, executive director of SPEEA. “This process would not have happened without Muilenburg.”
Boeing, SPEEA reached contract accord months ahead of schedule
Jan. 13, 2016: Boeing and its engineers union, SPEEA, reached a contract accord months ahead of the September amendment date, SPEEA announced today.
The full press release is below.
We’ll update as we get more information.
Dissection of the 2015 Airbus order book
Jan. 13, 2016, © Leeham Co. Airbus yesterday reported 1,139 gross and 1,036 net orders for 2015, dramatically out-performing Boeing’s sales figures.
Boeing’s 737NG outsold the A320ceo family but the A320neo captured 67% of the sales vs the 737 MAX. The A321neo picked up 98.3% of the market against the 737-9.
Boeing dominates the twin-engine wide-body sector, posting 212 gross orders compared with 170 for Airbus. Airbus recorded a 45% market share.
But Boeing’s clear win was due to the freighter sector, with the tipping order the 49 767-300ERFs from FedEx. Boeing sold 71 freighters last year, compared with just four by Airbus.
Lining up passenger-to-passenger model sales only, Airbus sold 166 twin-engine wide-body airplanes and Boeing sold 141, for a 46% market share.
Exclusive Interview: Airbus COO Tom Williams about changing times for Airbus.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
13 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus COO Tom Williams has a goal of reducing development expenses by 50% and streamlining the production to “best in class.”
Williams is in charge of the areas at Airbus with the greatest headwinds as Airbus goes from a development driven company to a production driven one.
It’s a daunting task to manage development, production and sourcing for a company with a product range where each delivered unit is made up of four million parts. It does not get easier by having to shrink the development activities from 30,000 employees and contractlors to 20,000.
We spoke to Williams about these challenges at the sidelines of Airbus 2016 annual press conference that recapped 2015 orders and deliveries.
Summary:
- Airbus is now changing from a development-driven organisation, constantly creating new products, to a production-oriented organisation.
- The development activities have to be transformed so as to support a company to that does constant improvement and derivatives, not new product lines.
- At the same time, the shareholders are saying it is payoff time. Years of investment shall now be honoured with industry conform return on invested capital. Read more
Airbus annual press conference 2016
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
12 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus held its annual press conference in Paris today against a backdrop of record 2015 deliveries. The year that went past was consequently a good one for Airbus. Orders were at a record high for the third year in succession and deliveries exceeded previous years for the 13th year in succession.
But the Airbus sky wasn’t totally cloud free; the large A380 only got sales by having ANA mop up the mess after Japan’s Skymark bankruptcy and production of the new A350 was hindered by a sole source lavatory supplier.
The result was that Airbus missed two 2015 delivery targets, the 15 per year for A350 (delivered 14) and the 2016 delivery of the first A320neo. The latter was because of “paperwork issues” related to certain things being “late to finish” ahead of certification. Read more
Dissection of Boeing’s 2015 order book
Jan. 12, 2016, © Leeham Co. Boeing announced its year-end 2015 orders tally, with 768 net orders and 878 gross orders. It is becoming increasingly clear the 737 MAX is essentially a one-aircraft family.
As expected, 737NG orders are declining, but Boeing won an important order from Delta Air Lines for the 737-900ER. There were no orders for the 737-700 and the 737-800 remains the backbone of the NG family.
There were no orders last year for the 7 MAX. There were four commercial orders for the 9 MAX plus one -9 BBJ. There were 400 orders for the commercial -8 MAX and four -8 BBJs. This means 99% of the MAX sales were for the -8 MAX and just 1% for the -9 MAX (Figure 1).
The -9 MAX nonetheless currently accounts for about 9% of the MAX backlog (Figure 2.)