18 Feb 2015: Turkish Airlines is contemplating testing A380 operations according to Blomberg by wet leasing two A380 from Malaysian Airlines. Turkish did the same when they tested the Boeing 777 before ordering it, then by wet leasing 777 from Jet Airways.
The deal would be good for both Turkish Airlines which could test the A380 to see if there is sufficient demand on their densest routes and for Malaysian Airlines as recent disasters has meant they no longer need the capacity of their six A380.
Probable destinations for Turkish would be London Heathrow and JFK. The two aircraft would be operated by Malaysian Airlines pilots and Malaysian would also furnish half the cabin crew during the first six months, the other half coming from Turkish. After the initial period there would be a dry lease phase where Turkish would continue with own crews. A third backup aircraft should be part of the deal.
Boeings CEO, Jim McNerney, has told investors at a Barclay’s investor conference that Boeing can use of to 80% of its free cash flow to pay back to investors without endangering planned R&D projects reports Reuters. Partly this comes from being able to keep the 777 production rates at around the current 100 aircraft per year in the bridge to the 777X. To entice airlines to continue buying the present 777, Boeing is working on improvements to the aircraft that will increase the efficiency by 2 %, half of which will be coming from improved GE90 engines and half from airframe changes.
McNerney further said the higher than expected deferred 787 productions costs were due to investments in production methods and the labor costs not coming down as expected. He also commented on the work on a new aircraft for the market between the present 737 and 787, “the 757 market” where he said the only thing which is clear is that the airlines want a slightly larger aircraft and we don’t see the market needing a solution in the near to mid term.
Airbus Groups results will be announced in a press conference from Munich Friday next week and their Military aircraft division is working on the outstanding improvements they owe A440M customers. Timely before the press conference they have now demonstrated the A400M working as a combined logistical transporter and tanker. In a series of rendezvous over four flights they transferred a total of 27 tonnes of fuel to two Spanish Air Force F18.
A400M filling up two F18 with fuel. Source: Airbus.
From the press release: “With a basic fuel capacity of 50.8 tonnes which can be increased by the use of extra cargo hold tanks, the A400M is the most capable tactical tanker in the market. The standard A400M aircraft has full provisions for air-to-air refuelling (AAR) operations already installed and only requires the rapid installation of the optional air-to-air refuelling kit to become a tanker.”
Our article shows that this is but one of the capabilities that should have been in delivered aircraft by now, Airbus is expected to announce further provisions for A400M development at the event.
Redefining the 757 replacement: Requirement for the 225/5000 Sector
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
25 Feb 2015: Speculation continues to ramp up during the last weeks and months about what Boeing is up to in the 180 to 250 seat sector and what might be Airbus’ response on top of the A321LR. The segment is not well covered today within production aircraft where 737-900ER and the forthcoming MAX 9 cover up to 210 seats and A321-200 and A321neo up to 220 seats. Both fly their passengers up to a realistic mission of 3000nm, i.e. transcontinental USA.
The next in production aircraft are 787-8 and A330-200 at 240 to 280 seats. These are long range dual aisle aircraft with empty weights more than double of the former pair. The 787-8 and A330-200 per seat economics on shorter missions are therefore in another ball game.
The only aircraft that currently bridges this gap is the out-of-production Boeing 757 and there has been much debate how this shall be replaced. We have covered this question in a number or articles focusing on in turn:
We also covered the study work underway at Boeing to cover this segment. We will now dig deeper into this corner after Boeing has unequivocally stated it does not see a re-engine 757 covering this segment and any aircraft that the airlines want should be a bit larger than the 757.
Summary:
Over a series of articles we will cover:
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Posted on February 25, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, GE Aviation, Leeham News and Comment, Premium
737 MAX, 747-8, 757, 787, Airbus, Boeing, KC-767
CS300 first flight Wednesday, direct challenge to 737-7 and A319neo
Feb. 25, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Bombardier’s direct challenge to the Big Two duopoly in the 125-149 seat sector is scheduled for its first flight Wednesday, weather and gremlins permitting.
Bombardier photo.
The CS300, challenger to the A319neo and 737-7, is to take to the skies as Bombardier’s flight testing program enters the final stretch. BBD still claims it will deliver the first CS100 by the end of this year, though most analysts (and we) believe it will slip into 1Q next year.
The CS300, 135 seats in two classes and 149 in standard one class, matches the 31-inch pitch configurations of the “baby” Airbus and Boeing products.
Bombardier claims large operating economic advantages over these competitors. Our analysis shows economics probably a bit closer than Bombardier would like.
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23 Comments
Posted on February 25, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer
737-7, A319neo, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CS100, CS300, CSeries, E-Jet E2, Embraer
Order cycle may have peaked for mainline single-aisles, but smaller jet cycle booming
Feb 24, 2015: The mainline jet orders get the headlines, and the focus on the order cycle, but the smaller jets have yet to see their order cycle peak.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Boeing to a Sell this week, in part on the theory that orders for the single-aisle, mainline jets have peaked and an oversupply is developing in its competition with Airbus.
The oversupply—if it develops—will only get worse as Airbus and Boeing ramp up production. Airbus has announced plans to take A320 family production to 46/yr next year. It’s notified the supply chain to be ready to go to 54/mo in 2018.
Boeing has announced plans to go to a firm rate of 52 737s per month in 2018. It’s considering 58/mo in 2019 and 63/mo in 2020, according to supply chain sources. We expect Airbus to match.
Given the long backlogs for mainline jets, out to 2020 and even beyond, it’s natural to conclude the order cycle has peaked for the time being. At the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference Feb. 11 in Lynnwood (WA), Boeing’s VP Marketing Randy Tinseth said the company sees the need for 4,000 more orders for the A320/737 class in the next five years. This averages 800 per year, or about 440 per year for the A320 and 360/yr for the 737 at the recent split of 55%/45% for the two airplanes. This is down dramatically from recent order history and well below the book:bill of the production rates.
If the mainline order cycle has peaked, it’s a different story for the smaller jets in the 70-130 seat sectors.
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41 Comments
Posted on February 24, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Sukhoi
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CRJ, CSeries, E-Jet, Embarer, ERJ, Mitsubishi, SSJ, Sukhoi
Odds and Ends: WTO and 777X tax breaks; US airlines vs Middle East; Goldman and Boeing; ExIm Bank
WTO to examine 777X tax breaks: Well, we predicted this in November 2013 when Washington State extended the Boeing 787 tax breaks to the 777X. And it’s happened. The World Trade Organization is going to take a look at that action. The 787 tax breaks were found by the WTO to be illegal. Washington didn’t change anything when it extended the tax breaks to the 777X.
US carriers vs Middle East airlines: Pretty much anyone who follows airlines has read about the war of words and politics between American, Delta and United airlines on the one hand and Emirates, Qatar and Etihad airlines on the other.
The blog Boarding Area has done perhaps the best independent analysis we’ve seen on the topic. You can find it here.
Goldman puts a Sell on Boeing: Goldman Sachs became the second firm to put a Sell rating on Boeing (after boutique Buckingham Research last year). Goldman believes the industry has had a strong run up and is now beginning to enter a period of over-supply, so it’s time to sell.
ExIm may get renewed: Maybe some Republicans are coming to their senses: there is a move in the House, controlled by the GOP, to renew the ExIm Bank for five years. The Tea Party still objects, calling it corporate welfare (mainly for Boeing), but as we’ve written many times, this is about global competition and domestic jobs. Boeing is able to sell airplanes to airlines that need help (although some deals are dubious to carriers that don’t seem to need it), which creates jobs putting these airplanes together and building all the parts for them. If ExIm was not reauthorized, Airbus would have a clear advantage. Let’s hope the more sane Republicans prevail
11 Comments
Posted on February 23, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing
777X, 787, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Emirates Airlines, Etihad Airlines, ExIm Bank, Goldman Sachs, Qatar Airways, United Airlines, World Trade Organization, WTO
Boeing’s dedicated freighters views an improving market
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Feb. 22, 2015: An improving global freight market gives Boeing hope that air cargo demand will support the production of two new main-deck freighters a month for years to come. Boeing is struggling to sell 747-8Fs to keep the 747 line alive and needs to sell the 777F to support its goal of maintaining the current 777 production rate of 100/yr through the transition in 2020 to the new 777X.
Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing included the projection as a passing reference in remarks Feb. 11 to the 14th Annual Conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in Lynnwood (WA). The following week we spoke at length with Tom Crabtree, Boeing’s Regional Director, Airline Market Analysis, Marketing & Business Development, about the long-suffering global cargo market and Boeing’s forecast for recovery.
Summary
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5 Comments
Posted on February 22, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, Premium
747-8F, 777-300ER, 777F, 787, A330-300, A350-900, Airbus, Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, MD-11F, Randy Tinseth, Tom Crabtree
Is next airliner a single or dual aisle?
By Bjorn Fehrm
19 Feb 2015: There has been much speculation over the last weeks and months what Boeing is up to in the segment 200 to 250 seats, also know as the “757 replacement market“. The speculations over Airbus response are also vivid. One of the reasons is that apart from this segment the landscape of which civil airliners will be produced over the next 10-15 years is pretty much settled; Cseries is on final stretch of development, A320neo is flying while 737 MAX flies next year. A330neo will fly 2017 as will 787-10. A350-1000 start testing in 2016 with deliveries in 2017 and 777-9X flies 2019 with deliveries 2020.
Apart from an announcement by Russia and China that they will design a 250-280 seat widebody there is only the “757 replacement” segment which can result in a clean sheet approach from the major OEMs. Around this questions has arisen a lot of speculation about possible short and long term solutions. Having done a lot of checking of these alternatives with our proprietary model, we have learned that:
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58 Comments
Posted on February 19, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi, United Aircraft
757, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, KC-767
Odds and Ends: Turkish tests A380; Boeing’s cash out; A400M milestone before Airbus Group results
18 Feb 2015: Turkish Airlines is contemplating testing A380 operations according to Blomberg by wet leasing two A380 from Malaysian Airlines. Turkish did the same when they tested the Boeing 777 before ordering it, then by wet leasing 777 from Jet Airways.
The deal would be good for both Turkish Airlines which could test the A380 to see if there is sufficient demand on their densest routes and for Malaysian Airlines as recent disasters has meant they no longer need the capacity of their six A380.
Probable destinations for Turkish would be London Heathrow and JFK. The two aircraft would be operated by Malaysian Airlines pilots and Malaysian would also furnish half the cabin crew during the first six months, the other half coming from Turkish. After the initial period there would be a dry lease phase where Turkish would continue with own crews. A third backup aircraft should be part of the deal.
Boeings CEO, Jim McNerney, has told investors at a Barclay’s investor conference that Boeing can use of to 80% of its free cash flow to pay back to investors without endangering planned R&D projects reports Reuters. Partly this comes from being able to keep the 777 production rates at around the current 100 aircraft per year in the bridge to the 777X. To entice airlines to continue buying the present 777, Boeing is working on improvements to the aircraft that will increase the efficiency by 2 %, half of which will be coming from improved GE90 engines and half from airframe changes.
McNerney further said the higher than expected deferred 787 productions costs were due to investments in production methods and the labor costs not coming down as expected. He also commented on the work on a new aircraft for the market between the present 737 and 787, “the 757 market” where he said the only thing which is clear is that the airlines want a slightly larger aircraft and we don’t see the market needing a solution in the near to mid term.
Airbus Groups results will be announced in a press conference from Munich Friday next week and their Military aircraft division is working on the outstanding improvements they owe A440M customers. Timely before the press conference they have now demonstrated the A400M working as a combined logistical transporter and tanker. In a series of rendezvous over four flights they transferred a total of 27 tonnes of fuel to two Spanish Air Force F18.
A400M filling up two F18 with fuel. Source: Airbus.
From the press release: “With a basic fuel capacity of 50.8 tonnes which can be increased by the use of extra cargo hold tanks, the A400M is the most capable tactical tanker in the market. The standard A400M aircraft has full provisions for air-to-air refuelling (AAR) operations already installed and only requires the rapid installation of the optional air-to-air refuelling kit to become a tanker.”
Our article shows that this is but one of the capabilities that should have been in delivered aircraft by now, Airbus is expected to announce further provisions for A400M development at the event.
31 Comments
Posted on February 18, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
air force tanker, Airbus, Boeing, EADS, GE Aviation, Malaysian Airlines, MH370
737/757 replacement, 777, 777-300ER, 777X, 787, A380, A400M, air force tanker, Airbus, Boeing, EADS
Bombardier’s crisis of confidence perhaps the biggest challenge for CSeries
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 18, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Alain Bellemare, Bombardier’s new president and chief executive officer, has his work cut out for him.
Figure 1. The CSeries was supposed to enter service in late 2013, two full years ahead of the Airbus A320neo. This market advantage has been lost with repeated delays. BBD is sticking to its public statement that EIS is now the second half of this year (most put EIS in the fourth quarter), but there is growing belief EIS will slip to the first or even the second quarter of next year–after the A320neo EIS. Source: Bombardier, Airbus, Leeham Co. Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view.
We outlined the corporate and market perception challenges ahead of him in our Feb. 13 post. Investor and media reception to the CEO leadership change was mixed. Although Bellemare’s appointment was seen as a positive, stock traded down and Bombardier took a pounding in the press (see some reaction at the bottom of this post).
He also has challenges with a changing market place, driven by two years worth of delays in the CSeries program and exacerbated by a changing global political environment.
Summary
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Posted on February 18, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, China, CSeries, Embraer, Premium
737-7, 737-8, A319neo, A320NEO, Airbus, Alain Bellemare, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, E-190 E2, E-195 E2, E-Jet E1, E-Jet E2, Embraer, Pierre Beaudoin
Odds and Ends: Tax breaks and job guarantees; New airline analysis blog
Feb. 17, 2015: Tax breaks and job guarantees: Boeing’s two largest unions in Washington State appear to be making headway this legislative session to get a bill on the floor for a vote that would retroactively tie 2013 tax breaks to a guarantee of jobs.
It’s less likely that the legislation will include a minimum wage component.
The tax breaks, hastily approved by the Legislature in November 2013, provided for $8.7bn in tax breaks to 2040 in return for Boeing locating the 777X assembly line and wing production in Everett (WA). The tax breaks are not only for Boeing, but available across the supply chain.
But there were no job guarantees, SPEEA and the IAM 751 warned legislators, and without them in the bill, they predicted Boeing would move jobs out of state.
That’s exactly what happened.
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17 Comments
Posted on February 17, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airlines, Boeing
737 MAX, 777X, 787, airlines, Boeing, IAM 751, SkyWriter Aviation, SPEEA
Regional operations with the Turboprop, propjet or Jet; Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
15 Feb 2015: In Part 1 of this article series we started comparing the alternatives available for turboprop short haul services in the 70 seat segment; ATR72-600 and Bombardier Q400. We also included the closest regional jet, CRJ700 from Bombardier, to compare costs and see where a jet would be
needed to keep trip times within reason.
In Part 1 we went through the capacity of the aircraft and their basic characteristics. We also did a first check of their typical fuel consumption on a standard mission of 300 nautical miles.
We will now look closer at the economics of the aircraft; we fly them over different sectors with different speed profiles. We will also dissect their Cash Operating Costs (COC) and Direct Operating Cost (DOC). Having done all this we will look at the crossover points; for what market is ATR72 the choice and where does Q400 fit. And finally, what route sectors require a jet?
Summary:
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Posted on February 15, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
ATR, Bombardier, Embrarer, Premium
ATR72, Bombardier, CRJ700, Embraer, jetprop, Pratt & Whitney, Q400, Turboprops
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