Farnborough Air Show, July 13: 737 program analysis

Michael O’Leary got his airplane.

Boeing today announced it will offer a 200-seat version of the 737-8, all but assuring that O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, will become a customer of the MAX model. O’Leary has yet to order the MAX and has been pushing Boeing for some time to expand the capacity of the 737 to 199 passengers, one shy of the 200 that would require another flight attendant.

Just as Airbus previously announced revisions to the interiors of the A320 andA321 to push to 189 and 240 passengers respectively, Boeing had been studying similar changes.

Read more

Farnborough Air Show, July 13: CSeries program analysis

The unexpected pre-Farnborough Air Show announcement by Bombardier for letters of intent for up to 24 CS100s is welcome news for the company and the program.

Although an announcement by Falko Regional Aircraft Leasing of a firm order would have been more welcome, history shows that LOIs tend to be converted into firm orders eventually, whether these are from Airbus, Boeing, Embraer–or Bombardier. With the Falko LOI, BBD now has 471 firm orders and commitments for the CSeries.

Hand-wringing headlines and stories over May’s engine incident in which a Pratt & Whitney P1000G Geared Turbo Fan during a CSeries ground test and the assumed hugely negative impact on the program these stories and headlines suggest are way overblown.

Read more

Airbus, Boeing plan for production gap of A330, 777 with near-term availability claims

On the eve of the Farnborough Air Show, the aviation industry is watching to see whether Airbus will launch the A330neo program. Officials recently tried to tamp down expectations that a program launch will occur at the FAS, but we would not be surprised if an Authority to Offer is announced.

The industry will also be watching Boeing to see if some 200 commitments for the 777X announced at the Dubai Air Show will be firmed up at the FAS. We certainly expect this to be the case. (We also would not be surprised if there is a significant order for the Boeing 787-10.)

Questions will almost certainly arise once again about the production gaps for the Boeing 777 Classic and the A330ceo. Boeing faces a sharp drop in the backlog after 2016 and Airbus faces an even sharper fall-off after next year.

Near-term availability is an important element in Boeing’s plan to bridge the period between the in-production 777 and the entry-into-service of the 777X, says Randy Tinseth.

There are no AirbusA350 delivery slots of consequence available until 2019 and the 777 has plenty of slots starting in 2017, three years before the 777X EIS is planned.

But Airbus can make the same claim for the A330 vs the 787.

Read more

Farnborough Air Show Coverage, July 12: BBD signs LOI for 24 CSeries

The Farnborough Air Show doesn’t officially begin until Monday but companies are already in position–and Bombardier appears to be first out of the box with Letters of Intent for up to 24 CS100s from UK lessor Falko, a previous customer for the CRJ series.

The market prefers to see firm orders, but analyses of converting Options and LOIs by the Big Four OEMs demonstrates that most are converted. BBD now has 471 orders and commitments for the CSeries–203 of which are firm.

This begins our coverage of the FAS. Watch for postings planned at the end of each day UK time, but there could be others at any time.

 

 

WA State continues to look Beyond Boeing to build aerospace industry

Washington State will continue to look “Beyond Boeing” while paying close attention to the giant aerospace company’s needs in order to further strengthen the state’s aerospace industry.

The annual update to the Washington State Aerospace Industry Strategy focuses on the state’s relationship with Boeing—something expected given Boeing’s overwhelming dominance to the Washington economy and workforce—but recognizes the need to attract aerospace business Beyond Boeing in order to diversify its reliance on Boeing.

The 38-page PDF may be downloaded here: 2014 WA State Aerospace Strategy

Read more

Odds and Ends: GAO report on ‘Boeing’s bank;’ C919; Airbus widebody strategy

GAO report on ‘Boeing’s bank:’ The US Government Accounting Office, a non-partisan investigating agency, completed a study of the funding and guarantees provided by the US ExIm Bank, which is under criticism from Congressional Republicans, and concluded non-US airlines do benefit from what amounts to subsidies.

These put US competitors at a disadvantage, GAO concludes. The full 29 page PDF may be found here.

The study period covered the global financial crisis, during which a good deal of private capital funding dried up. Airbus and Boeing each relied more heavily on export credit agencies for customer financing–ExIm in Boeing’s case and collectively European Credit Agencies, or ECAs, for Airbus.

The GAO found that ExIm funded or guaranteed financing for 789 Boeing wide body aircraft while the ECAs supported 821 Airbus wide-bodies.

Parenthetically, this statistic alone should demonstrate to Congress the need for ExIm to continue to be available for Boeing airplanes.

Read more

Boeing sees 4% increase in aircraft demand in next 20 years

Boeing forecasts a demand for 36,770 new airplanes during the next 20 years, an increase of 4.2%, in its Current Market Outlook. The value of this demand, which covers the entire commercial aviation line from regional jets and up, is $5.2 trillion.

The company released its annual forecast today, for the period ending 2033.

As with previous forecasts, the single-aisle demand constitutes the vast majority, with a requirement for 25,680 airplanes to cover retirement and growth, the latter being driven by the proliferation of the low cost carriers worldwide. The “heart of the market” for the single aisles has moved up to 160 seats, says Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing. This is the 737-800/8 and A320ceo/neo-sized airplane. The Comac C919 and Irkut MC-21 will join this sector when they enter service later this decade.

Read more

Is the A330neo engine Rolls Royce’s first carbon fan model?

The Airbus A330neo program has come a long way since our 29th of December article  “A330neo prospect gains traction.” With the Farnborough Air Show days away, we understand there are now Airbus internal job postings for engineers to join the program. The speculation then reduces to “when” the program will be announced, not “if.” Another would be what improvements are foreseen for the Boeing 787-derived engines that may power the neo.

Rolls Royce reportedly gains exclusivity

Reuters recently reported that Rolls Royce might get an exclusive engine deal for the A330neo. There are many reasons Airbus might give Rolls Royce or General Electric exclusivity on an engine for the A330neo, especially if Airbus sees the likely sales of the updated aircraft to stay below 500 units. The reasons can range from how much of the $2B estimated program cost the engine manufacturer would pay to what efficiency improvements they would undertake on top of what is already on the way for their 787 engines. There is every reason to believe the GEnx-1B can match the fuel consumption performance of a further developed Trent T1000-TEN. We understand Rolls Royce will leverage developments from the A350 TXWB engines but GE can just as easily leverage developments from the LEAP program.

T1000 ALPS demonstratorThe picture shows the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 carbon fibre fan demonstrator engine from the companies ALPS (Advanced Low Pressure System) program.  Is this also the looks of the Rolls Royce A330neo engine?

Read more

Air New Zealand shows off first 787-9

Air New Zealand and Boeing displayed the industry’s first 787-9, of which ANZ is the launch customer, in a media show-and-tell today.

ANZ touted its black-painted exterior and black-decorated interior for what it called a game-changing airplane that is better than the 787-8. Officials noted this is the first time an airplane stretch has more range than the shorter version.

Air New Zealand is the launch customer for the Boeing 787-9. It displayed the plane July 9 in a show-and-tell for international media.

Air New Zealand is the launch customer for the Boeing 787-9. It displayed the plane July 9 in a show-and-tell for international media. Photo by Scott Hamilton.

Boeing officials pointed to a more efficient production system, better engineering and lessons learned from the 787-8 program that produced an airplane that is expected to at least match the current dispatch reliability of the 787-8, if not better it, upon entry-into-service in the coming weeks. The 787-8 had a difficult EIS and a lower-than-expected dispatch reliability. Lessons learned should overcome all these disappointments.

Read more

Comparing the A330 and 777 Classic backlogs

Airbus has a major image problem with its A330 backlog: the aviation industry looks at the backlog and sees “two years worth of production,” assuming on its face that after 2016, there are no orders. Therefore the program is in dire straits.

It’s not that simple, as we’ve pointed out: firm orders extend to 2019, though heavily front-loaded to the near term–and certainly Airbus does have issues with the backlog.

The same industry looks at the Boeing 777 backlog, hears Boeing say it has three years worth of backlog and six years to fill a production gap to EIS of the 777X, blithely asserting there is no problem. This assumes 100% conversion of options, letters of intent and option LOIs.

We’ve previously plotted out the production gaps of both airplanes. Below we plot the orders, options, LOIs and option LOIs (Airbus does not list option LOIs) from the Ascend data base as of July 1. The plot lines are actually very similar near-term.

Read more