Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 5. Turbofan design problems April 26, 2024
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
Uncertainty exists over fighting composite airplane fires
c. Leeham.net
Uncertainty exists over how airport fire departments will fight fires in the new composite commercial airliners, indicating that the manufacturers still have educating to do.
A top fire official at Denver International Airport, the location of the most recent airport crash and fire in the USA, believes the coming composite-based commercial airliners will require airport fire departments to change they way they fight post-impact fires. DIA is not yet served by the Airbus A380, the only commercial plane flying with more than component parts made out of composites, and the airport is not slated to be among the first served by the Boeing 787—due to enter service in early 2010.
But a platoon captain with the Los Angeles Fire Department stationed at LAX Airport, one of two US airports currently receiving service from an airliner with substantial composite construction (the A380; New York’s JFK is the other), says his airport follows substantially the same guidelines established for fighting post-impact fires of current generation airplanes.
And Boeing told the airport authorities at Everett, WA’s, Paine Field, where the 787 will perform its flight testing, that there isn’t any effective difference between a composite airplane and a traditional one.
Bill Davis, assistant fire chief of the Denver Fire Department assigned to the Denver International Airport, believes tactics have to be changed after reviewing the post-impact fire analysis of the US Air Force Northrop Grumman B-2A bomber in Guam February 23, 2008. The USAF issued its crash report in June 2008.
“This will fundamentally change everything from strategy and tactics and equipment,” Davis said. “It strikes me that we’re definitely going to have to train to and equip ourselves differently. I’ve studied fires in military composites. This (B-2A crash) is the first of an all-composite airplane; usually there are just parts that are composites.”
Boeing’s Carson speaks at JP Morgan conference
Boeing Commercial Airplanes President Scott Carson spoke today at the JP Morgan Aviation & Transportation Conference. Summarizing:
- Carson predicts the new entrants in Russia, China, Japan and elsewhere will learn the hard lessons learned by Airbus and Boeing.
- There are more MROs than the world needs; consolidation will result.
- Proposed carbon regulations in Europe have rapidly spread around the world, but it is not easing in hard economic times. Airbus and Boeing have flown aircraft with bio fuels; the challenge will be to find the bio fuel with sufficient quantities.
- A more efficient airspace management system needed in US and Europe, reducing the carbon footprints.
- Credit markets remain uncertain and unstable. The Germans have now decided to bail out the banks, raising further uncertainty in the credit markets.
- Boeing’s backlog remains strong. The regional balance gives us some protection against declines in any one market.
- The 767 has significant life and value left in it, with product improvements and the addition of winglets.
- 787 program: all fundamental designs and technologies working well. Production issues and global supply chain coming together to perform as intended, beginning with airplane 7. Reaffirms 2Q09 first flight and 1Q10 first delivery.
- 747-8: disappointing last year to announce a forward loss on the program ($685m). Reaffirms 3Q10 first delivery for freighter and 2Q11 first delivery for passenger model. Fulfills gap between 777-300ER and A380.
- In the process of implementing new wing production line in 737 for more efficiencies, reduction in employee risk. Continue to pursue lean manufacturing at 737 and 777 lines.
- Industry faces challenges for next several quarters. At Boeing, we began right-sizing in advance of market turndowns (ie, layoffs). We remain confident we have the right products and services for future. Competition will remain intense, driving value forward, better products and technologies.
- Our focus now is on product execution; our stumbles have been embarrassing for us and for our customers on 787 and 747-8 programs. Can’t take our eyes off complex production programs. This will require us to be humble, and not taken by our word but by our actions. Through it all, we’re tougher and harder than we were two years ago. We are humbled by our mistakes.
Q&A begins.
EADS financial results 2008
EADS, parent of Airbus, posted its financial results for 2008. The press release may be obtained here. EADS summaries of the results:
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Group EBIT* of € 2.8 billion – supported by excellent underlying performance, significant positive foreign currency effects but burdened by programme charges
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Net Income of € 1,572 million (FY 2007: € -446 million)
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Free Cash Flow exceeded expectations with € 2.6 billion
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Robust balance sheet with Net Cash at a record level of € 9.2 billion
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Revenues increased by 11 percent to € 43.3 billion
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Order book grew 18 percent to a record of € 400 billion
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Dividend proposal of € 0.20 per share
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A400M issues with customers and suppliers pending
The analyst call may be obtained by clicking the top right webcast item on this page. The 20 page PDF earnings slide show may be obtained here.
Obama to delay tanker, says report
CQ Politics reported late Monday night that the White House has told the Pentagon to delay procurement of the KC-X tanker. See the story here.
Update, March 10: DOD Buzz has this item speculating the suggestion to cut the tanker program is nothing more than a budgetary ploy.
New analytic tool calculates emissions, range, fuel burn
A new analytic program enables users to calculate emissions, range, fuel burn, payload and other data on about 250 commercial, corporate, Western and Russian aircraft in a matter of minutes. The program, called Piano-X, is offered by Lissys Ltd. of the UK.
A free download with sample data for the Airbus A300-600, the Fokker 70 and the Boeing 787-8 is available through the websites.
Emissions regulations have been adopted in Europe and are under consideration in the US. The Obama Administration is also talking about imposing carbon taxes, though at this stage these seem to be for industry; it’s unclear if aviation will also be included in the potential legislation. Europe is already imposing taxes on airlines that fail to meet emissions standards. In calculating emissions, Piano-X can use the ICAO emissions data. Piano-X enables operators to quickly calculate emissions that will help them understand potential regulatory costs.
The User Guide details various assumptions and qualifications in calculating emissions.
Piano-X also has aircraft performance analysis on a wide variety of metrics. Airbus undertook its own analysis that concluded the initial 787s will fall significantly short of advertised ranges, capable of operating less than 7,000nm. Aeromexico last week told Flight International it expects the 787 it has ordered to fall short of range targets—also identifying 7,000nm. Boeing denied the Airbus conclusion and did not comment to Flight on the Aeromexico statement.
Tanker contest gearing up
The Department of Defense’s JROC (a joint requirement group) met to consider what to do about the next round of the KC-X tanker competition, and US Sen. John McCain threw cold water on the idea promoted by US Rep. John Murtha about a split buy between Northrop Grumman and Boeing.
Boeing delivered its third KC-767J to Japan last week while EADS, partner of Northrop, promoted a milestone for its KC-30A Australian MRTT tanker.
Boeing has yet to deliver its first KC-767I to the Italians.
Boeing reorganizes Wichita ahead of strike vote
Boeing internally announced a reorganization of its Wichita Integrated Defense System ahead of a strike vote by the engineers union, SPEEA, that has an April 2 strike date.
Renewed contract negotiations collapsed earlier this week without an agreement.
Boeing “announces changes to the Wichita Engineering team, to include Product Support. This organizational change is in alignment with previously stated objectives to; double the Global Services & Support business within five years, execute on current work to meet customer expectations and financial objectives, and focus on performance and productivity,” to company said in a communication to employees.
Although Wichita is an IDS facility, SPEEA engineers also work on the development of the 747-8. A strike would affect work on this already-delayed program, now 9-12 months late. But SPEEA engineers have been told to prepare a transfer of engineering on the 747-8 to Boeing’s Moscow Design Engineering unit, we’re told.
Update, 3:30 PM: We just received this word from SPEEA about the Irving, TX, BAE Systems operation:
“We received notice that they are laying-off more than 500 people (out of 1000) and outsourcing the work to Mexico. This essentially wipes-out the SPEEA bargaining unit at the facility.”
BAE Systems is a supplier to Boeing and Airbus and, in 2008, ranked fifth as a contractor to the US Department of Defense. BAE Systems is a UK company.
(We can’t resist noting that for all those who complain about the prospect of Northrop Grumman/EADS/Airbus winning the tanker contract and shipping all those jobs “overseas,” noone seems to take any notice or care that BAE (#6 in 2007, now #5 in 2008) is a foreign company.)
Boeing supplier plans 32% decline in 737 rate by year end
Update, February 27: Just kidding—
Curtis-Wright tells us their officials [m]ucked up and there is nothing to support the statements reported below, as extracted from their year-end 2008 earnings call. CW has no information regarding a rate reduction by Boeing this year.
What is especially troubling here is that CW did not put out a public statement correcting their error. Although CW followed up with calls to the aerospace analysts, the common shareholders of CW, Boeing and other suppliers relied on the earnings call and the transcript to make investment decisions. The failure of CW to make a public correction of this material error is highly irresponsible.
Original Post:
Boeing supplier Curtiss-Wright plans to provide Boeing with only 21.5 737 shipsets per month by the end of the year, from the current level of 31 a month.
The revelation was contained in the CW earnings call of February 18 and overlooked by the Boeing-focused media. (We were just returning from our submarine venture in the Atlantic and are only now catching up.)
Here is what CW said in its 2009 forecast:
In our commercial market, we expect to be flat. Commercial aerospace, we see flat shipments to Boeing year-over-year, because last year we shipped about 305 737s and we looked at commercial aerospace from a Boeing side, surely the 737 that drives our revenues and last year because of the strike, we shipped about 305. This year, we’re anticipating shipping around 315 and we expect the beginning of the year to be at 31 ship-sets a month for the first six months, and it then goes down to about 21.5 ship-sets for the last six months and we expect Airbus to be down.
The company added, in a response to a question:
Gov. Boeing to Commerce (Redux)
Substitute Gary Locke’s name for Christine Gregoire and it’s the same analysis.