Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
ISTAT Asia 2017: The fight for the lead
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 11, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus and Boeing had their customary presentation match at the second day of the ISTAT (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) conference in Hong Kong. Each OEM stuck to a theme throughout their presentations.
Boeing’s was “market leader.” As the one that delivered the most aircraft during 2016, Boeing had the right to the claim. Airbus countered with “value protection leader.” The neo success saves airlines from having to change aircraft families. Read more
Regional aircraft for US Scope clause operations. Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the first article about the US regional aircraft market, we described the special rules that apply for outsourced regional airlines, operating for a mainline carrier. The mainline pilots limit the outsourcing via Scope clauses in their Union agreements to aircraft with 76 seats and 86,000lb Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW).
We identified potential aircraft that fit these restrictions in the first article. Now we examine their load carrying capability.
The MTOW limit sets a hard limit on how large aircraft can be used to house 76 seats. The mainline carriers want the regionals to mimic their domestic cabin classes in their aircraft. There shall be no disruption for a First class or Premium economy passenger whether on a mainline flight or on a feed flight to/from the hub.
The challenge is to accommodate the seating standard in the aircraft that come in question.
Summary:
- Mainline airlines want to replicate their three class cabins for all sectors of a network.
- This means the regional aircraft cabins shall offer First class, Premium economy and Economy sections.
- Only the larger aircraft we study can offer a three class cabin with 76 seats.
Read more
How Airbus can kill the Boeing 797
Artisit concept of the Boeing 797. Rendering via Google images.
May 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus can kill the business case for the prospective Boeing 797, the New Midrange Aircraft also known as the Middle of the Market Airplane,
- Reuter’s Tim Hepher has this story.
- CNN’s Jon Ostrower has this story.
All it has to do is move first, instead of waiting for Boeing to launch the 797, something considered likely next year.
If Airbus launched what is commonly called the A322, a larger, longer-range version of the A321neo, the new version would become a true replacement for the Boeing 757, meet economics of the smaller 797, which has a working title of the 797-6, at a much lower capital cost.
WestJet’s 787, international strategy fraught with risks
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Introduction
Boeing 787-9. WestJet ordered 10 and placed an option for 10 more. Deliveries begin in 2019. Boeing photo.
May 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: WestJet, Canada’s #2 airline behind Air Canada, is making dramatic departures from its low-cost, low-fare strategy since the company began operations in February 1996.
The company earlier announced it will form an Ultra Low-Cost Carrier (ULCC). Last week came an order for 10 Boeing 787-9s and options for 10 more. Deliveries begin in 2019.
Summary
- WestJet is taking on Air Canada and its LCC unit, Rouge, in LCC and long-haul LCC markets.
- “Too much going on to get comfortable,” writes analyst.
- Capital costs will go up significantly.
Pontifications: Bombardier’s challenges beyond Boeing complaint
By Scott Hamilton
May 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The fallout and speculation continues after Boeing filed a complaint April 27 over Bombardier’s deal for 75+50 CSeries with Delta Air Lines.
The complaint was filed with the US government and the International Trade Commission.
Our stories are here, here and here.
Read more
Turkish Airlines, 2016 a difficult year
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 03, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Turkish Airlines had its first growth setback in modern times last year.
The attempted state coup in Turkey in June hit passenger confidence and thereby its international traffic. After the political unrest, the international traffic, which accounts for 75% of revenue, decreased by 10% after years of double-digit growth.
The result was losses for the first time for the modern Turkish Airlines. Will this growth machine make a comeback?
C919, the Chinese challenger
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
May 01, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) C919 is expected to have its first flight this month, perhaps as early as this week. We review where the program stands and how it compares to its competition.
When the C919 program was launched in 2008, neither Airbus nor Boeing envisioned re-engining the A320 and 737 families. First flight was planned for 2014 and entry-into-service in 2016.
The C919 would have had economic and capital cost advantages over the A320 and 737NG. With program delays of at least four years, and maybe more, those advantages have been narrowed. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Keeping airliners operational. Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 20, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We will start the second article in series on keeping airliners operational by discussing how the structure is kept fit.
There are three areas that are more key to flight safety of an airliner than others. The aircraft’s structure, the engines (already discussed) and the flight control system. We will start with the structure.
Figure 1. The first modern maintenance program was formed around the Boeing 747. Source: Wikipedia.
Airbus group 1Q 2017 results: no surprises.
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 27, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group presented its first quarter results this morning. There were no surprises. Revenue and earnings were a bit lower than expected, but this is because a part of the company has been sold, the Defense & Space Electronics division.
There was no news on the problematic A400M. Negotiations with the customers have just begun, any results will take time to materialize.
Boeing-Bombardier complaint could affect competition in coming Delta neo-MAX RFP
Commentary
May 1, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s complaint against Bombardier’s CSeries transaction with Delta Air Lines, and a request for millions of dollars in antidumping and penalties might be coming at a bad time.
Was the Boeing 787 program marked by “launch customer pricing” or “dumping”? This may depend on program or unit accounting. Boeing photo.
“Boeing requests that the Department initiate an antidumping investigation and impose antidumping duties on Aircraft from Canada in an amount sufficient to offset unfair pricing above.”
If Boeing is successful in its request of the US government and International Trade Commission to impose duties before the first CS100 is delivered to Delta next year, the cost of the airplane will balloon from the $19.6m Boeing calculates (and which BBD denies) to at least $33m.
It’s unclear from the complaint who would pay this penalty—Bombardier, maintaining the price to Delta, or would Delta have to pay the reset price?
Regardless, this kerfuffle can’t be welcome news to Delta, which already has a ruffled relationship with Boeing due to its opposition to the ExIm Bank and orders for Airbus aircraft.
Read more
24 Comments
Posted on May 1, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, Embraer, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney
737 MAX, 737-10, 737-900ER, 787, 7M7, A320ceo, A320NEO, A321ceo, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CS100, CSeries, Embraer, LEAP, Pratt & Whitney