Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Modern IFE
By Bjorn Fehrm
04 December 2015, ©. Leeham Co: During the last two weeks I have been busy explaining how a mid-life long range aircraft is refurbished. The articles have been about how to prepare 10 year old Boeing 777-200ER and Airbus A340-300 for their second half of life.
One of the things that must be done is updating the part of the aircraft that meets the customer, the cabin. Most passengers don’t know much about the aircraft they are flying, but they can tell you if the seats were comfortable, if there was enough leg space and if the movies on the entertainment system were any good.
This means that if the cabin is brought up to a modern standard with lie-flat business seats, refreshed interior surfaces and textiles, and if there is a personal IFE unit with good content, the passenger will not reflect over that he flies an old aircraft.
Such refreshes cost a lot of money. Without changing all items in a 300 seat cabin, one is easily at between $5m-$10m for material and installation. One of the problems when wishing to keep existing seats, for economic reasons, is that it is virtually impossible to implement in-seat IFE to an existing seat. Luckily there are other solutions. Read more
Used B777-200ER or A340-300, Part 2
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Introduction
By Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 3 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we started our article series around acquiring used twin-aisle aircraft to start new long haul services or boost an existing network. We focused on Airbus’ A340-300 and Boeing’s 777-200ER, two capable long haulers, both with a capacity of around 290 seats, using our normalized two class cabin. We wanted to understand which one would have the lowest operating costs over a network which has flights up to 12-13 hours.
We analyzed the Cash Operating Cost (COC) of the aircraft in their standard configuration in Part 1. We could see that their COCs are similar. We now study the aircraft’s capital costs. These will include a necessary cabin makeover where we will use the chance for the 777-200ER to convert it to a 10 abreast aircraft in economy. We aim to amortize its higher acquisition cost by spreading these over more passenger seats.
Summary
- The 777-200ER and A340-300 are very close in Cash Operating Costs in their base versions.
- The 777-200ER has a market valuation which is more than double that of the A340-300. Recently this level has declined but the acquisition cost of a -200ER is still higher than the A340-300.
- We use the potential of 10 abreast in economy to see if we can even the per seat cost of the two by spreading the higher costs of the -200ER over more seats.
C-17: the end of an era
Dec. 1,2015: The last C-17 flew off the Boeing production line in Long Beach (CA) last week, ending aircraft
The final C-17 before taking off from the Long Beach (CA) production plant Boeing acquired in the McDonnell Douglas merger of 1997. MDC designed the C-17. Los Angeles Times photo.
production at the former McDonnell Douglas plant that began delivering Douglas DC-8s at the start of the jet age.
It’s the end of an era that lasted six decades.
Prior to producing the DC-8 at Long Beach, Douglas Aircraft Co. built its long line of piston airliners at the Santa Monica (CA) Airport.
The DC-8 was followed by the DC-9, DC-10, the DC-9 Super 80 series, the MD-11, the MD-90 and the final commercial airliner at Long Beach, the MD-95/Boeing 717. The C-17 was the only military aircraft built here.
Here’s a photo array dedicated to this storied history.
Boeing 737 rate hike factors
Boeing 737 factory in Renton (WA). Boeing rendering.
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Introduction
Nov. 30, 2015, © Leeham Co.: As Boeing ponders whether to increase production rates of the 737 line beyond the previously announced 52/mo rate effective in 2018, there are other important considerations besides whether the market can sustain another rate increase and whether the supply chain can gear up to the higher rates.
It is widely known that Boeing is considering rates as high as 63/mo, the maximum capacity at its Renton (WA) plant. Airbus has already announced it plans to go to rate 60/mo for the A320 family in 2019. But a higher rate is being explored, and a relationship to the future of the 747-8 is a factor.
Summary
- Market share protection, backlog clear considerations.
- Termination of the 747-8 program, its effect on suppliers and a Boeing write down are factors.
- Cash flow going into the 2020 decade is important.
Icelandic becomes first regular airline to serve Antarctica
Icelandic Boeing 757 at Union Glacier Blue Runway, Antarctica. Source: Special to Leeham News and Comment.
Nov. 27, 2015: Loftleider Icelandic Airlines is the first regular airline to serve the world’s seventh continent, Antarctica.
Icelandic, a sister company to Icelandair and crewed by Icelandair, operated a Boeing 757-200 into the Union Glacier station last week, Nov. 17, on a proving run. The first passenger flight was yesterday. The 757 was configured for 52J/10Y seats; there were 50 passengers. The flight originated in Puntas Arenas, Chile.
Used B777-200ER or A340-300?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Nov. 26 2015, ©. Leeham Co: In recent articles we have latched on to the debate around the prices for used Boeing 777-200 aircraft. Contrary to the market appraising companies’ ideas about second hand values, our surveys show that not only the Airbus A340-300 is cheap in the market but the Boeing 777-200ER is also available at interesting prices.
This, coupled with sustained low fuel prices, makes for interesting opportunities. Charter destinations can be reached which were not possible with less competent aircraft and it is possible to lease or purchase these long range aircraft to backfill an expanding route network while awaiting or even postponing delivery of the latest technology aircraft.
We decided it was time to take a look at which of the two would be the better choice as a long hauler of 300 passengers to destinations of up to 5,000nm. We use our proprietary model to find out which one is the most suitable given different conditions, such as cabin makeover or not. We will also introduce aircraft deterioration to the calculations to map the reality of an older aircraft.
In this first article, we will establish the base values for the aircraft and find their cash operating costs. In a subsequent article, we will add capital costs where we will look at different purchase scenarios and refurbishing options and how these affect the overall direct operating costs.
Summary
- The 777-200ER and A340-300 are very close in most dimensions.
- The 777-200ER is the slightly larger and heavier aircraft. Thanks to more effective engines, it can compete on fuel costs.
- When the other costs are added to make up cash operating costs, the higher weight and more expensive engines start to eat up any fuel cost advantages the 777-200ER has.
State investment in Bombardier further mockery of WTO
Nov. 24, 2015, (c) Leeham Co. With the $1bn investment by the Province of Quebec in the Bombardier 
CSeries program, another example of government funding emerges in commercial aviation development.
Setting aside whether the investment might be challenged before the World Trade Organization—and whether this makes good business sense for Quebec—the move makes a mockery of the entire concept of avoiding government support.
Pontifications: “I’m glad you’re not going far.”
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 23, 2015, (c) Leeham Co. An Airbus A321 is blown out of the sky over Egypt.
Two Air France jumbo jets are diverted due to bomb threats.
ISIS stages multiple, simultaneous attacks in Paris. Additional attacks are thwarted. Police raids in Belgium take place.
ISIS is declared a clear and present danger in Europe and the US.
The worries on a global basis are obvious. Being far more parochial, given the focus of LNC, what is the impact and potential impact on commercial aviation?