Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Embraer 1Q2016 results: Strong start to the year
By Bjorn Fehrm
3 May 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Embraer has made a good start to 2016. Group revenue for 1Q2016 was $1,309m compared to $1,056m 1Q2015, up 24% year on year. EBIT was $86m compared with $80m a year ago, giving a margin of 7.5%.
The major increase in revenue was for the Business jet side which delivered 23 aircraft compared to 11 1Q2015. Commercial aircraft increased with one aircraft to 21 deliveries.
Embraer’s commercial aircraft best seller, the E175 being delivered to United Express. Source: Embraer.
The commercial aircraft side sold 23 E175-E2 in the quarter giving a Book-to-Bill of 1.1. Sales for the Business Jets side was not publicized. Group order backlog was $21.9b compared to $20.4b for 1Q2015. The balance sheet is strong with $1,854m in cash and total debt of $2,389m.
The group’s only problem area is domestic state demand. Its KC-390 military transport program has stopped once for lack of Government payments and it risks being caught again in the problems of the Brazilian state economy.
Here the details of the financial results for the divisions and their aircraft programs. Read more
Pontifications: Big sigh of relief at Bombardier
By Scott Hamilton
May 2, 2016, © Leeham Co.: To say that the order from Delta Air Lines last Thursday for 75+50 CS100s with conversion rights to the CS300s was welcome news for Bombardier is an understatement.
Bombardier has a superb airplane in the C Series. The passenger seats are the most comfortable coach seats of any manufacturers, better than the Airbus A320 and way more comfortable than the Boeing 737. With apologies to Embraer, the C Series is even marginally better than the Embraer E-Jet, which is very good. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: C Series flight controls
By Bjorn Fehrm
29April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: With the order by Delta Air Lines, the Bombardier C Series has taken the step up to be a viable alternative to Airbus’ and Boeing’s single aisle 130-150 seat aircraft.
In my description of airliners’ flight control and Flight Management Systems (FMS), I have focused on the established mainline single aisle players. Time to change that; C Series has arrived and will stay in the mainline segment.
Why 130 seats as a limit? Because below 130 seats there are a number of additional players (Embraer, Sukhoi, Mitsubishi…) and we can’t describe them all right now.
Now to how Bombardier has implemented the flight controls, autopilot and FMS for the C Series. In fact, we will look at how they have made the C Series cockpit, Figure 1.
Figure 1. C Series flight deck. Source: Bombardier.
I haven’t flown the C Series yet (working on it!) but I have been able to glean quite a bit over time and spent quite some time in the cockpit with the Bombardier test pilots at the Paris Air Show.
So here is a shot at describing the C Series control philosophies and capabilities and how they mimic/differ from Airbus and Boeing.
Bombardier wins breakthrough C Series order, from Delta
April 28, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: At long last, after years of disappointment for that big, breakthrough order, Bombardier finally got it: a huge deal from a blue chip
Delta Air Lines ordered 75 CS100s and optioned 50 more. This is the breakthrough order Bombardier has been waiting years to receive. Source: Delta Air Lines.
airline, and one from North America: a firm order for 75 C30S100s and options for 50 more from Delta Air Lines.
Delta has conversion rights to the CS300. Bombardier now has more than 300 firm orders, although many of these are iffy, and commitments for up to 500 more.
This is the order that observers, analysts and aviation geeks have been waiting for during much of the development and production of the C Series.
The announcement came concurrently with highlights of BBD’s first quarter results.
Pontifications: Earnings week for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer
By Scott Hamilton
April 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer having their first quarter earnings call this week. Bombardier also has its Annual General Meeting concurrent with its 1Q earnings on Friday.
The big anticipation will be with Bombardier.
Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported Delta Air Lines was going to order 75+50 C Series from BBD. Delta, on its 1Q earnings call, said it had nothing to announce but would have more to say at its investors day. This is May 16.
But at the same time, BBD postponed its AGM and 1Q call from the 28th to the 29th. Delta’s board of directors meets on the 28th. Previously, BBD postponed by one day its year-end earnings call to coincide with Air Canada, which announced an order for 45 C Series, plus options.
Is Bombardier’s rescheduling another harbinger of the Delta order, or will Delta hold off any announcement until that May 16 investors day?
Or could Delta announce the Bombardier order Friday and the widely reported, expected order for 30-37 Airbus A321ceos?
The world aviation geeks wonder.
Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier is working hard to get additional mainline airline customers for its C Series project. The latest discussion is whether Delta Air Lines would replace its fleet of Boeing MD-88s with the C Series.
Figure 1. C Series largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.
In this context, it’s also discussed if the largest model, the CS300, Figure 1, is large enough for Delta. This aircraft seats 135 passengers in a two class configuration and up to 160 passengers in an all economy high density version.
The question is whether this is sufficient for Delta and other mainline customers, or if a still larger version is needed in the program, the oft-discussed CS500. We decided to use our proprietary aircraft model to see if a CS500 would be straight forward for Bombardier to develop, should Delta or any other customer ask for a three model C Series program.
Summary
- The C Series aircraft program was developed with the CS300 as the main model. The wing, engine and landing gear were dimensioned with the CS300 in mind.
- The CS100 is a shrink of the CS300, and not vice versa (the CS300 a stretch of the CS100).
- A tentative CS500 stretch if therefore a first stretch of the program’s main model and not a double stretch of a CS100.
- This is evident when one starts to analyze how a CS500 would be designed. There are rather modest changes that need to be done to create an extended model that seat up to 180 passengers.
Alcoa lowers guidance, cites slowing jet sales, production ramp up
April 13, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Alcoa, a major supplier to Airbus and Boeing, lowered its 2016 guidance on anticipated lower demand for aluminum on lower orders for legacy commercial airliners and a slower than expected transition to new airplanes.
In a first quarter earnings call Monday, Alcoa didn’t specify which of the Big Two OEMs it was thinking of, or whether these might have been Bomabrdier and Embraer, for which it also is a supplier. But Sam Pearlstein, the aerospace analyst for Wells Fargo, believes it is Airbus and the A320/A350 programs.
“Alcoa reduced 2016 aerospace global sales growth guidance to 6-8% from 8-9% with large commercial aircraft growth now expected to be about 9% (vs. 15% previous forecast) largely due to lower orders for legacy models and a ”more careful” ramp-up of new models (which we presume means A320NEO and A350),” Pearlstein wrote in a note published yesterday.
Bjorn’s Corner: Embraer’s Fly-by-wire approach
By Bjorn Fehrm
08 April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Two weeks ago we discussed the advantages of a Fly-By-Wire (FBW) system which uses feedback based flight laws. We discussed the fact that aircraft OEMs can get the desired FBW handling characteristics with smaller horizontal tail surfaces. I put forward the Embraer E-Jets as an example where the change of FBW principle allowed a 26% reduction in the horizontal tail size for the E2 generation.
At the time there were some debate on how this was achieved and what the root cause of the improvement was. Embraer followed the discussion and told me when I contacted them that my information was correct. In the interest of our readers, Embraer agreed, however, to have their FBW team to give a more complete picture of the advantages of a feedback based FBW.
Here is the team’s response. Read more
Bombardier’s Delta deal looking good, but don’t celebrate yet
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Introduction
Air Baltic will be the first operator of the Bombardier CS300. Source: Bombardier.
April 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier, if it didn’t dominate the news cycle in commercial aviation last week, must have come close. Consider:
While on balance, it seems likely Delta will order the C Series, Bombardier has been down this road before. Only a few months ago, the market and others were excited over the prospect that BBD was close to landing an order from United Airlines, only to see Boeing swoop in and grab the deal.
Summary
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Posted on April 18, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, E-Jet, Embraer, Leeham News and Comment, Premium, United Airlines
737-700, A319, A321ceo, Air Canada, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, C Series, CS100, CS300, Delta Air Lines, E195 E2, E195-E1, Embraer, United Airlines