HOTR: Ryanair’s O’Leary pissed, but wants 737 MAX 10

By the Leeham News Team

May 25, 2021, © Leeham News: Michael O’Leary may be royally pissed as Boeing, but he’s nevertheless in negotiations for a large order of 737-10 MAXes.

In the year-end earnings call last week and in an appearance on CNBC, O’Leary unloaded on Boeing’s Seattle management team over delivery delays for the 737-8200.

O’Leary, the CEO of Ryanair, didn’t mince words—he never does. This is, after all, the guy who at a press conference talked about his potential trans-Atlantic low fare operation providing blow jobs to business class travelers. Sitting next to him was his female translator, who clearly was nonplussed. (You can look it up on YouTube.)

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HOTR: Porter confirmed as customer in E195-E2 deal

By the Leeham News Team

May 19, 2021, © Leeham News: Embraer got a big boost for its E-Jet E2 order book in April when it announced a firm deal for 30 E195 E2s.

“On April 23, the Company signed a firm order for 30 E195-E2 jets with an undisclosed customer, with deliveries starting in 2022. The 30 firm orders will be included in Embraer’s second quarter backlog,” Embraer said in its April 29 earnings release.

Embraer delayed E-Jet deliveries because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thin backlogs for the E2 pre-date the pandemic. This order, with deliveries starting next year, illustrates Embraer’s thin skyline.

Airfinance Journal on May 13 first reported the customer is Canada’s Porter Airlines. Porter, pre-pandemic, operated De Havilland Dash 8-400s exclusively from Billy Bishop Airport, Toronto’s downtown in-city airport. AFJ cited multiple sources. Porter Airlines denied it ordered the airplane or that it had signed lease deals to acquire the E2. The carrier told the Toronto Globe and Mail it isn’t going to “switch” fleet types.

However, LNA confirmed this week that the airplanes are going to Porter. Porter declined to answer any questions from LNA.

“Our response to this speculation has been provided to others and published. We do not have anything further to add,” Porter said in an email.

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HOTR: Boeing’s “historic” production advance

By the Leeham News Team

May 18, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing’s Defense unit last week said it joined the front fuselage of the first Boeing-SAAB T-7A Red Hawk trainer with the aft section “perfectly,” in less than 30 minutes.

It was, Boeing said, an “historical moment.”

It was “a testament to the digital heritage of the U.S. Air Force’s first ‘eSeries’ aircraft and witness to the benefits of model-based engineering and 3D design,” Boeing said. “The digital splice was completed in 95% less time than traditional splices and with substantial quality improvements.”

Why is this a big deal for Boeing Commercial Airplanes?

Because the T-7A, along with the MQ-25 unmanned aerial refueler for the Navy, are Boeing’s pilot programs, if you will, for production of the next Boeing commercial airliner.

This is in part what former Boeing Co. CEOs Jim McNerney and Dennis Muilenburg and current CEO David Calhoun alluded to each time they talked about advanced production.

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HOTR: Airbus’ view on recovery from COVID; why Southwest stayed with MAX 7

By the Leeham News staff

May 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Domestic traffic throughout the world is returning to 2019 levels, but at different rates, according to an Airbus analysis.

Robert Lange, Head of Business Analysis and Market Forecast, said today that the fragmented cross-border travel regulations and uneven vaccinations continue to inhibit passenger traffic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

 

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HOTR: Annual Reports give hint to MAX return in China

By the Leeham News Team

May 4, 2021, © Leeham News: Annual reports from some Chinese airlines give an indication when Boeing can expect to resume deliveries of the 737 MAX there.

China Southern’s report issued this week indicates 48 MAXes will be delivered next year. Another 44 are shown to be delivered the following year. This compares with five A320 series this year and none next year. Only 15 A320s were delivered in 2020.

Five 787s and one 777s are scheduled for delivery to China Southern this year. Four A350s are scheduled for delivery this year and next.

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Etihad’s fleet simplification

By the Leeham News Team

Apr. 27, 2021, © Leeham News: Etihad Airways’ CEO Tony Douglas announced that the carrier would be grounding its A380 fleet indefinitely and retire its 19 777-300ERs by the end of 2021.

The Abu Dhabi carrier has become the latest to terminate A380 operations. Etihad took 10 Superjumbos over 2014-2017, which featured “The Residence” seat. After the aggressive and luxury expansion of the early 2010s, transformation towards increasing efficiency is the order of the day.

The carrier intends to retire its 777-300ER a little more than a year after announcing a sale and leaseback transaction with Altavair and KKR. LNA does not know whether Etihad could terminate the leases early and whether there were penalties associated with the move.

The move will add another 19 777-300ERs on the market looking for a new home. There are currently large numbers of 777-300ERs coming off lease.

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HOTR: Compensation wins Southwest order for MAX

By the Leeham News Team

March 29, 2021, © Leeham News: Southwest Airlines today announced an order for 100 Boeing 737-7 MAXes.

The order was expected. The carrier also considered the Airbus A220-300. But any prospect of diverging from the 50-year relationship with Boeing was at best a crapshoot.

Despite the flowering language in the press release, the key reasons are buried.

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HOTR: Putting the 2020 Delivery Slump into historical perspective

By the Leeham News Team

March 16, 2021, © Leeham News: OEMs delivered 743 jet-powered passenger aircraft to airlines last year, compared with 1,684 at this cycle’s peak in 2018. The below chart shows the total for all OEMs as well as Airbus and Boeing (including McDonnell-Douglas).

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HOTR: Investors optimistic for Boeing. Are they too optimistic?

By the Leeham News Team

March 10, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing’s recovery will be long, slow and painful.

But Boeing has been through long, slow and painful periods before.

Investors appear optimistic. The stock price has been rising since lows hit immediately after and throughout the pandemic.

The stock price is far off its high of $440 on March 1, 2019. March 1 was after the October 2018 Lion Air 737 MAX accident but nine days before the March 10, 2019, Ethiopian Airlines MAX crash. The price closed yesterday at $231, abut equal to where it was a year ago today.

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HOTR: Alaska begins service with 737 MAX

  • Alaska likely to cancel A320neo order. Details below.

By the Leeham News Team

March 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Alaska Airlines today launched its first service with the 737 MAX.

The carrier’s first flight was flight AS 482 from Seattle to San Diego, operated with a 737-9.

Alaska is the fourth US airline to operate the MAX. It is the third to use it in service since the type was recertified in November by the Federal Aviation Administration. American and United airlines returned their MAXes to service earlier. Southwest Airlines followed later this month. The Seattle-based airline hadn’t taken delivery of the MAX before the March 13, 2019 grounding.

Alaska is the second carrier to place a follow-on order for the MAX, after Ryanair, following recertification by the FAA. The MAX 9 will replace Alaska’s remaining Airbus A319/320ceos by 2024. Alaska continues to operate 10 Airbus A321neos and still has 30 A320neos on order, all from its acquisition of Virgin America in December 2016. In its annual 10K filing, Feb. 26, with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Alaska said, “At this time, we do not expect to take delivery of these 30 Airbus aircraft.” Alaska disclosed that $15m in deposits for the A320neo order, made by Virgin America, are “not likely to be recoverable.”

Alaska Airlines Boeing 737-9. Source: Woody’s Aeroimages.

The carrier originally ordered the 737-8. Officials later swapped these orders for the larger MAX 9. Alaska’s 737-900ERs are configured with 178 seats compared with the 737-800’s 159 seats. The advertised range of the MAX 9 is 3,550 statute miles with one auxiliary fuel tank. The tank adds about 270 miles to the range of the base specification.

Boeing doesn’t break out the sales of the MAX sub-types. There are an estimated 250-300 orders for the MAX 9, a “tweener” airplane between the MAX 8 and MAX 10.

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