Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
- How good is the C929? April 14, 2025
Aerion’s supersonic engine presented
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 26, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Aerion Supersonic’s CEO and Executive Chairman, Brian Barents, presented the first pictures of the Aerion AS2 biz jet’s engine at the recent PNAA conference in Seattle.
It’s the first engine adapted for supersonic passenger transport since the Concorde’s Olympus engine was developed in the 1960s.
Figure 1. Aerion’s supersonic AS2 business jet. Source: Aerion.
Based on the released configuration sketch, we put the engine through our GasTurb modelling software. Here’s what we found.
Summary:
- The Aerion AS2 engine combines the CFM56 core with a new high Specific Thrust low-pressure spool.
- Through the AS2’s M1.4 cruise speed limit, complex variable engine inlets and outlets can be avoided.
Pontifications: Transformation is key to increasing production rates
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The likely prospect that Airbus and Boeing will increase single-aisle production rates next decade is outlined in our paywall article today.
The whys and capabilities to do so are outlined in the paywall post. The how is what I’ve been writing about since the first of the year, when LNC looked ahead to its 2018 forecast.
The “how” is the transformation in production that is underway in aerospace.
Airbus, Boeing likely to push for 70/mo single aisle airplane production rates: analysis
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Introduction
Feb. 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Production rates for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families are already at record levels, and heading higher.
Airbus plans to hit a production rate of 60/mo next year. Boeing is taking the 737 to rate 57. Boeing is
studying rates of 63/mo and even 70/mo. Airbus is sure to match.
How will the airframers achieve these rates?
Information gleaned from the sidelines of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference last week give a reasonably good picture of how Boeing will get there.
Visibility was less on Airbus, which is unsurprising given the conference was in Boeing’s back yard in Lynnwood (WA).
Airbus, plagued by “decapitation,” faces tough choices on NMA: consultant
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Introduction
Feb. 15, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus’ plans to respond to Boeing’s prospective New Midrange Aircraft, aka 797, is a mystery to one of the industry’s leading aviation consultants.
Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group notes that Airbus’ research and development investment overtly disappears after 2018, with the introduction into service of the A350-1000 and the A319neo.
Aboulafia spoke at Day 2 of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) conference in Lynnwood (WA).
He’s long compared R&D spending between Airbus and Boeing, often praising the former for its level of investment and criticizing the latter for lagging.
Now, Airbus’ level of spending is a question mark while Boeing’s is a comfortable level compared with revenue, Aboulafia says.
NMA demand skeptics aren’t thinking outside the box, Boeing exec says
Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Skeptics who question Boeing’s market demand forecast of 4,000 airplanes for the New Midrange Aircraft aren’t thinking “outside the box,” says Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing.
Tinseth heads up the team that prepares Boeing’s annual Current Market Outlook for the next 20 years.
Boeing’s CMO forecasts a need for about 5,900 small twin-aisle aircraft (fewer than 300 seats but larger than single-aisle airplanes of more than 200 seats). About 4,000 of these are for the NMA.
Others, including Airbus, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce and some key suppliers see the market as between 2,000 and 2,500. Leeham Co.’s own estimate is 2,300.
Global Services won’t hurt airline tech ops, says Boeing official
Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: A Boeing official today dismissed concerns that expanding Boeing Global Services, with additional controls on aftermarket support for commercial airplanes it builds, might negatively impact potential sales.
Several airlines, including Delta, Singapore, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and some Chinese carriers, operate their own MRO facilities that not only maintain their own fleets, but offer services to other airlines.
Kevin Michaels, president of the consulting firm AeroDynamics, expressed concern that Boeing’s tighter control of aftermarket parts is already leading to customer satisfaction issues at some airlines. He also said Boeing might lose airplane sales to Airbus if it is unwilling to grant MRO rights to the maintenance facilities of those carriers that operate them.
Michaels made his remarks at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance.
Boeing risks losing orders in aftermarket business push, says consultant
Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s drive to dramatically increase its aftermarket business, competing with suppliers or even controlling the parts needed by airlines for maintenance, repair and overhaul operations have a risk, says an industry consultant.
Kevin Michaels, president of AeroDynamics, said Boeing potentially could lose airplane sales if it takes too hard an approach to controlling aftermarket parts.
Michaels appeared at the 2018 annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) today in a Seattle suburb.
Why Boeing won’t take a charge on 787s
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Introduction
Boeing 787-9. Source: Boeing.
April 11, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has $29bn in deferred production costs and another $3bn in deferred tooling costs for its 787. The accounting block, for its program accounting, is a record 1,300 aircraft. Many Wall Street analysts are skeptical whether Boeing will ever recover the huge deferred numbers.
Boeing insists it will.
Still, taking a charge of some number—as it has done twice for the 747-8 and twice for the 767-based KC-46A—is something Boeing repeatedly insists it doesn’t need to do.
Why not?
There are a few key reasons, say Wall Street analysts who follow Boeing: revenue, cash flow and the stock price.
Summary
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates Boeing needs to post a profit of $30m on each of the remaining 900 787s to be delivered to recover the deferred costs. LNC figures this number is higher.
- Pricing pressure from Airbus makes it difficult to obtain this profit.
- The deferred costs limit Boeing’s ability to price down to meet Airbus’ offers to customers.
- Credit Suisse figures Boeing can recover only some $22bn of $29bn in deferred production costs.
- Boeing warns in SEC filings a forward loss might be required.
- But no forward loss is likely unless revenue falls short.
Pontifications: Airbus’ new edginess
By Scott Hamilton
March 14, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus is presenting a new edginess in the long-running war of words with Boeing, adopting a tactic Boeing has used for years to make its case.
The European manufacturer has never been shy about getting in its digs at Boeing, but generally Boeing’s messaging—years in the making and steadfastly adhered to—has had more sticking power than Airbus’.
Boeing launches PFS 2.0
Update, 0815 PDT July 7: Boeing Corporate Headquarters responded to our questions. The transcript has been added to the article below.
Boeing wasn’t shy about who it targeted, or punished. Even supply-chain giant United Technologies was placed on Boeing’s no-fly list when it balked at the onerous demand.
Now Boeing is moving forward with PFS 2.0, a second round of demands.
Summary
Read more
21 Comments
Posted on July 7, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
air force tanker, Boeing, Leeham News and Comment, Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, United Technologies
747-8, 787, Boeing, Dave Gitlin, Héroux-Devtek, Jim McNerney, KC-46A, Michel Merluzeau, Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, Partnering for Success, PFS 1.0, PFS 2.0, PNAA, Richard Aboulafia, United Technologies Aerosystems, UTAS