Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
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- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
Pontifications: Airbus easily leads narrow-body backlog, Boeing ahead in wide-bodies
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Two thousand seventeen is over and the numbers are in.
Airbus continues to have a commanding lead over Boeing for single-aisle, neo v MAX backlog.
Although Airbus got pounded by Boeing in wide-body orders last year, the backlog tilts only slightly in Boeing’s favor.
Pontifications: 2018 starts off with a bang
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This year isn’t even a month old. If the rest of the year continues like January, commercial aviation is in for an exciting year.
The stunning news, of course, was last week’s shocking defeat for The Boeing Co. in its trade complaint over the Bombardier C Series sale to Delta Air Lines.
Nobody I know of thought Boeing would lose. It did, and by a unanimous verdict.
Then there was the order from Emirates Airline for the Airbus A380, saving the airplane from almost certain program termination.
The Boeing 787-10 was certified. The first delivery will be in March.
And Qatar Airways said it will receive the first Airbus A350-1000 next month.
Let’s look at these events.
Pontifications: Twelve Years of Turbulence at American Airlines
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 22, 2018, © Leeham Co.: American Airlines was the last of the big US legacy carriers to enter bankruptcy, in 2011.
Executives put up a valiant battle to avoid being dragged into Chapter 11, despite having two airplanes hijacked on 9/11. One was flown into the World Trade Center, the other into the Pentagon.
Only two months later, American lost a third airplane in an accident.
Delta, Northwest, US Airways and United airlines all filed for Chapter 11 after 9/11; there were several other airlines to do so. Not all survived.
American did, merging with US Airways as part of the former’s bankruptcy reorganization.
AA’s former general counsel, Gary Kennedy, teamed with the aviation reporter for the Dallas Morning News, Terry Maxon, to tell the story of Twelve Years of Turbulence, The Inside Story of American Airlines’ Battle for Survival.
The book is available now.
Pontifications: Embraer twice became focus of US trade commission complaints
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 20, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The US aircraft manufacturer claims the foreign company is unfairly subsidized, undercutting pricing in US sales and threatening its future. A trade complaint is filed.
A prominent politician lines up on behalf of its constituent industries, claiming unfair competition. He calls for a trade investigation.
No, it’s not Boeing vs. Airbus.
It’s not even Boeing vs. Bombardier.
The complaints were against Embraer, twice.
Once in 1982 and again in 2010. In both cases, the US International Trade Commission was involved.
The rhetoric is remarkably consistent with the Boeing-Bombardier trade case.
In both Embraer cases, the ITC dismissed the complaints.
Its decision in the Bombardier case will take a preliminary vote next week, absent a schedule change, and a final decision will be issued Feb. 9.
Pontifications: 2018 is a year of Transformations
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 8, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This is going to be a year of transformations.
This might be viewed with puzzlement by some. After all, only minor-modification models will be entering service this year: the Airbus A350-1000, the Boeing 737-9, the Airbus A319neo and the Boeing 787-10. The first flight of the 737-7 should occur.
Flight testing continues for the Mitsubishi MRJ90, the COMAC C919 and Irkut MC-21.
The proposed deal between Airbus and Bombardier should receive government approvals this year. Talks between Boeing and Embraer may or may not result in a combination of some kind.
The Big Deal, however, resides in Everett (WA).
Pontifications: Alabama loses key committee slot in US Senate following election
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The special US Senate election last week in Alabama drew world attention of the showdown between Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore.
Jones eked out a victory, becoming the first Democrat in 25 years to be elected to the Senate from Alabama.
I’m not going to get into all the issues, allegations and political implications of this race. Instead, a new item from Defense News caught my eye about the implications to the Alabama aerospace position in Congress.
Defense News’ headline is eye-catching: “Election leaves Alabama-shaped hole on Senate Armed Services Committee.”
Pontifications: Countdown to Delta’s single-aisle decision
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Eyes will watch Atlanta (GA) this week, when the Delta Air Lines Board of Directors decides to award a big order for the re-engined Airbus and Boeing single aisle airplanes.
The Board meeting is believed to be Thursday. At stake: 100 orders and 100 options for either the Airbus A320neo or Boeing 737 MAX families.
I wrote about this last week. Here’s an update.
Read more
Pontifications: Delta’s decision on neo vs MAX near
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Delta Air Lines management decision for an order for 100 Airbus A321neos or Boeing 737 MAXes, plus an equal number of options, is expected this week. A decision by the Board of Directors is expected next week.
Competition between the two companies was heated. Commercial terms were aggressive. Airbus and Boeing each want this deal badly. An Airbus win speaks for itself. For Boeing, a MAX order would give a boost to the MAX 10. A blocking move on Airbus is desired. For Boeing, a win would be especially meaningful.
Relations between Boeing and Delta are notoriously strained. These were exacerbated by Boeing’s complaint with the US government over the Bombardier C Series order, in which Boeing alleged price dumping and illegal subsidies. To no surprise, the Trump-led Department of Commerce found in favor of Boeing on both.
Pontifications: Scrutiny of HNA intensifies
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Time for some catch-up in the world of commercial aviation.
Scrutiny of HNA Group is intensifying as regulators in Switzerland claim the Chinese company provided false information in the takeover of a Swiss aerospace company.
Additionally, Airfinance Journal reports that at least five lessors have seen delayed lease payments from HNA Group airlines ”as HNA pumps cash from those carriers into other areas of the highly leveraged conglomerate.”
And HNA’s Hong Kong Express low-cost carrier has been barred from further expansion until it fixes problems identified by the Chinese government.
LNC reported in September that HNA was coming under credit pressure due to its high leverage.
In addition to a plethora of airline investments, HNA owns one of the world’s largest aircraft leasing companies, Avolon.
Pontifications: EU weighs in for Bombardier in Boeing trade fight
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The European Union is now getting involved in the Boeing-Bombardier trade dispute. See here and here.
The EU has taken Bombardier’s side. Although the UK previously weighed in with BBD because the wings are produced in Northern Ireland, the EU hadn’t become involved. Now it has, filing briefs with the US Department of Commerce.
Why now?