March 19, 2015: This is the first version of my Corner where I will comment on the aeronautical world as I see it. It will be a mix of tech things (I am an engineer) and my view on things from my European vantage point. Enough on reason and style; lets get started.
LCC goes long range: After AirAsiaX and Norwegian, now Ryanair is going long range, according to Irish Times (or not; the latest news from Robert Wall of The Wall Street Journal is that the board has not approved a long range business plan).
Be that as it may with Ryanair, the key thing is that what happened to the majors on short haul is about to hit them on long haul as well. Short haul LCCs brought about a change in airline economics and in single aisle aircraft. The LCCs, followed by Ultra LCCs, started the trend to denser and denser configurations where the latest trends are sub 29 inch pitch slim-seats and lavatories that started at 37 inch getting slimmed to 31 inch. It has also brought about changes in galleys and emergency exits configurations, all leading to aircraft with higher and higher capacities.
Posted on March 20, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 15, 2015: This is a pivotal year for the future of the Airbus A380.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, increased the pressure for development of an A380neo when he said he’d buy up to 200 of the prospective re-engined airplane, potentially doubling the number of neos he previously said he’d buy.
It was widely expected that if Airbus proceeds with a neo, Rolls-Royce will provide the engine. Market Intelligence, however, indicates development of the Advance engine may be running into challenges. Airbus is now talking with Engine Alliance about upgrades to the GP7200.
Summary
Posted on March 15, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Engine Alliance, GE Aviation, ISTAT, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce
737 MAX, 737NG, 777-300ER, 777-9, A320ceo, A320NEO, A330ceo, A330neo, A350-1000, A380, Airbus, Boeing, Emirates Airline, Engine Alliance, GE Aviation, GP7200, John Leahy, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Rolls-Royce Advance engine, Tim Clark
Snippets heard in the hallways of the 2015 ISTAT annual meeting in Phoenix:
Posted on March 9, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
March 5, 2015: A350 Launch Aid: Boeing and the US Trade Representative got in a big twist around 2006 when Airbus said it would accept more than $1bn in launch aid from Germany for the A350. At that time, the US and European Union had recently launched the international trade complaints before the World Trade Organization (WTO), but the A350 came after the complaint was filed and the WTO refused the US request to add it to the proceedings.
Germany, in a political snit, later said it would withhold part of the launch aid because Airbus hadn’t promised the number of jobs in connection with the program to Germany that politicians wanted.
Posted on March 5, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, GE Aviation, ISTAT, Malaysian Airlines, MH370, Rolls-Royce
747-8, 777-9, 777X, 787, A350, A380neo, Airbus, Akbar Al-Baker, Boeing, Bombardier, CS300, Emirates Airline, Engine Alliance, GE Aviation, George Hamlin, ISTAT, Malaysia Airlines, MH370, Qatar Airways, Richard Aboulafia, Rolls-Royce, U-Turn Al, World Trade Organization, WTO
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
01 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: In the first part of the article series around the need for a more capable solution for 180-240 seats and 5,000 nautical miles, we went through the derivative aircraft that Boeing could field as competitors to Airbus A321LR and showed why none of them are effective. We also established the market requirements and the likely market size for aircraft that shall cover this segment and the required efficiency and overall cost improvement needed.
We will now look at different solutions to the requirements, first by analyzing what key characteristics does single and dual aisle aircraft have and what consequences will they have for the aircraft’s efficiency parameters like weight, size and drag. Once we have these characteristics we can design adapted aircraft types and calculate their economics such as fuel costs and other costs and we can also establish their operational ground handling times and thereby the consequences single or dual aisle will have on the aircraft utilization.
Having developed and presented these facts it will be possible to forecast what will be the most likely results of Boeing’s New Airplane Study, NAS that we presented 2 November last year. Boeing now uses the name, Middle of the Market (MOM) in place of the NAS.
Summary:
Our second article shows:
By Bjorn Fehrm
19 Feb 2015: There has been much speculation over the last weeks and months what Boeing is up to in the segment 200 to 250 seats, also know as the “757 replacement market“. The speculations over Airbus response are also vivid. One of the reasons is that apart from this segment the landscape of which civil airliners will be produced over the next 10-15 years is pretty much settled; Cseries is on final stretch of development, A320neo is flying while 737 MAX flies next year. A330neo will fly 2017 as will 787-10. A350-1000 start testing in 2016 with deliveries in 2017 and 777-9X flies 2019 with deliveries 2020.
Apart from an announcement by Russia and China that they will design a 250-280 seat widebody there is only the “757 replacement” segment which can result in a clean sheet approach from the major OEMs. Around this questions has arisen a lot of speculation about possible short and long term solutions. Having done a lot of checking of these alternatives with our proprietary model, we have learned that:
Posted on February 19, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Feb. 15, 2015: Orders for the Airbus A380 have been slow, almost glacial, since the program was launched in 2000. Despite a 20-year forecast then and every year since by Airbus that suggests there is a need for 1,200-1,700 Very Large Aircraft (including freighters), sales of the A380 and Boeing’s 747-400/8 have never reached a point that support the forecast.
Airbus’ latest forecast now is for around 1,500 VLAs, including freighters.
Slow sales hang over the prospect of developing an A380neo. We concluded last year that Airbus had to proceed with the neo in order to spur sales. The commercial viability is a matter of great debate, but Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier said last month Airbus will produce a neo, and even stretch the airplane.
Aviation consultant Richard Aboulafia, a critic of the A380 from the get-go, thinks Airbus would be nuts to launch a neo. At the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference last week in Lynnwood (WA), in the heart of Boeing country, Aboulafia renewed his decades-long criticism of the airplane.
Posted on February 15, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Feb 12, 2015: In a series of articles during the autumn we covered the replacement scenarios for Boeing’s 757-200 when used for long haul passenger operations. The series also included an interview with Boeing’s head of new airplane studies, Kourosh Hadi, director of product development at Boeing where he outlined what Boeing studied and why.
This week The Wall Street Journal published an article portraying that Boeing seriously considered launching a re-engined 757 as a response to Airbus A321LR. Boeing has since vehemently denied the story and we have given the reasons why it does not make sense for Boeing.
As a complement we show the operational economical analysis that we did at the time of our 757 articles, now updated to the exact modifications suggested by The WSJ, a new engine and new winglets paired with modern avionics.
Posted on February 12, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Feb. 12, 2015, c. 2015 Leeham News and Comment: Boeing appeared to put to bed once and for all any prospect of reviving the 757 to fill a product gap between the 737-9 and the 787-8.
Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, refuted a published report that said Boeing was studying resurrecting the plane, last delivered in 2005, with new engines and winglets. Tinseth made the remarks Feb. 11 at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA).
While Boeing studied the prospect at one or more points, we didn’t view this as particularly significant; Boeing looks at virtually all options when studying product development.
Our economic analysis, performed after the published report, is one reason why we didn’t believe Boeing would proceed with a “757 MAX.” The economics simply fall short of the competing Airbus A321LR by double digits.
Posted on February 12, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Embraer, GE Aviation, Mitsubishi, Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
737 MAX, 737NG, 747-8, 757, 757 MAX, A320NEO, A321LR, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, E-Jet E2, Embraer, GE Aviation, Irkut, MC-21, Mitsu, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney, Randy Tinseth, Rolls-Royce, United Technologies
Feb. 4, 2015: In a pitch designed to save the Boeing 747-8 and simultaneously kill the prospect of an Airbus A380neo, Emirates Airlines has received a pitch for 100 of the slow-selling Boeing, two sources familiar with the situation tell Leeham News and Comment (LNC). This is isn’t yet a formal proposal, as far as we know.
Tim Clark, president of Emirates, said he would buy 100 A380s if Airbus re-engined and launched the neo. The neo would use the new Rolls-Royce Advance engine, according to two different sources. Neither Pratt & Whitney nor GE Aviation, which dominate the current A380 engine market share with its joint venture Engine Alliance GP7200, are interested in developing a new engine for the prospective A380neo, according to public statements by both companies. PW doesn’t offer an engine alone that could be adapted to the size required for the A380neo. GE’s GEnx engine, used on the Boeing 787, is in the thrust and size bracket but would only improve the efficiency with 4-5%, thus not worth the change effort. The smaller version of the GEnx is on the 747-8. Read more
Posted on February 4, 2015 by Scott Hamilton