Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Built for Mars
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 17, 2021, © Leeham News: Ever since watching the movie and reading the book, The Martian, I’ve been fascinated about all things Mars.
The Mars rover Perseverance under development at the Jet Propulsion Lab. Source: National Geographic.
Previous movies were contrived sci-fi trash. The Martian was fiction, to be sure, but it was science-based. A NASA official told me the agency cooperated with the book author and the movie producers. And John Shannon, the lead of Boeing’s giant SLS launcher for a Mars mission, also told me the book and movie were based on science.
NASA and Boeing in 2016 outlined some of the challenges in this powerpoint.
Built for Mars is a 90 minute chronicle of NASA’s current mission to Mars. The Perseverance rover is the first of three missions over 10 years to return samples from Mars to Earth for scientific study. Produced by National Geographic and premiering Feb. 18, the challenges of putting together this mission are immense.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About Sustainable Air Transport
Feb. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: Electrically powered aircraft. Or hybrids. Or bio-fuels. Or hydrogen.
These are the alternative suggested by environmentalists and industry to reduce carbon emissions by the airlines.
Which makes sense? Which is practical? Today’s 10 Minutes About considers these factors.
Airbus’ production plans
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 15, 2021, © Leeham News: LNA wrote last month an article about Boeing’s latest production plans for future years. Airbus announced updated production plans on Jan. 21.
Airbus’ latest production plans call for a shallower increase in A320 production rates than envisioned earlier due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The A220 production rate will go back to five per month, while twin-aisle rates will stay flat for the foreseeable future. Airbus postponed an envisioned A350 production rate hike while predicting a return to pre-COVID demand levels by 2023 to 2025.
These updated delivery rates reflect customer’s delivery preferences. Ahead of Airbus’ earnings release on Feb. 18, LNA analyses the revised delivery schedule for coming years on the four major commercial programs.
Summary
- Some A220 delays;
- Slight A320 adjustments;
- Lower for longer on twin-aisle programs;
- Near-term delivery concerns on one program.
Pontifications: The New Air Force One: Flying Fortress
Feb. 14, 2021, © Leeham News: Air Force One is, after the national flag, the most recognizable and prestigious symbol of the United States.
By Scott Hamilton
It’s also shrouded in mystery.
A new National Geographic special premiering Feb. 15 lifts the veil, at least partially.
NatGeo was granted unprecedented access to the development of the new airplanes, two Boeing 747-8s, that will replace the 30-year old 747-200s that serve as Air Force One.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 24. Propulsion choice
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 12, 2021, ©. Leeham News: After covering the basics of fuel cells last week in our hydrogen airliner series, we now look at what type of system to choose for aircraft propulsion and onboard systems power.
We analyze the propulsion side this week.
Figure 1. A SAFRAN concept for a low emission airliner from its Clean Sky 2 presentation. Source: SAFRAN.
The A350, Part 5: The A350-900 versus 777-200ER
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we started analyzing the main member of the Airbus A350 family, the A350-900. It’s the design center for the A350 family and has so far 747 orders, of which 354 are delivered.
Over 1,000 Boeing 777 airliners in the market need replacement, and the A350-900 targets about half of these, the 777-200 and -200ER. Delta is one airline that started the switch from 777-200ER to A350-900. How much does Delta stand to gain?
Summary
- The 777-200ER broke the ground for oceanic twin-engine flights. It offered an improved economy on trans-oceanic routes.
- Airliner technology advanced for the 18 years younger A350-900, spurred on by Boeing’s technical leaps with the 787 Dreamliner.
- As the A350-900 employed these gains in the 777-200ER size class, it does to the 777-200ER what it did to Airbus A340-300, it wins the economy race hands down. Read more
Pontifications: Boeing’s right direction, but don’t get ahead of reality
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing appears to be heading in the right direction: launch a new airplane program to take care of its 737 MAX product weakness. And do something different by pursuing the “NMA Lite” concept: a twin-aisle, three-member family starting at ~185 seats through ~250 seat and up to 5,000nm in range.
But don’t get ahead of ourselves on the NMA Lite. There are a lot of Ts to cross and i’s to dot.
And anything can change between now and a concerted effort to survey customers, prepare the supply chain and ask the Boeing Board for Authority to Offer the NMA Lite for sale.
Importantly, a three member family dramatically expands the potential market. Publicly, Boeing said the market for the NMA is about 4,000. Internally, officials knew it was more like 2,100—with Airbus capturing perhaps half.
With a third member, demand increases by roughly 7,000.
It’s tough to make a business case for 1,050 airplanes. It’s much easier for 4,550.
Still, this is the best news I’ve seen come out of Boeing in years. Even pre-dating the MAX ground. And pre-dating the COVID pandemic.
The world of diminishing returns: challenges Boeing faces
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By the Leeham News Team
Introduction
Feb. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing faces a dilemma of Solomonic proportion.
Which direction should it extend its product offerings?
With the suspension a year ago of the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) project by incoming CEO David Calhoun, Boeing’s future airplane strategy was upended.
Some Internet pundits said Boeing needed a clean-sheet replacement for the 737. Others said it needs to be a 757/NMA sized vehicle.
Last week, Aviation Week reported Boeing appears to now be headed in the direction of a three-member “NMA Lite” family. LNA outlined this approach last June. Feb. 3’s LNA post has more detail.
While Boeing faces near-term decisions, the challenges go well beyond launching a new airplane and the new engines required to power it.
Summary
- Advances of diminishing returns.
- Staying within the ICAO box.
- Taking the fight to the ground.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 23. Hydrogen fuel cells
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 5, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we started the discussion around fuel cells as a source of electric energy in airliners. We went through the principle and asked some vital questions.
Now we look at different types of fuel cells and for what applications these are suited.
Figure 1. The principle of a hydrogen fuel cell. Source: Airbus.
The A350, Part 4, A350-900
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: After comparing the rejected Airbus A350-800 and its replacement A330-900, we now turn our attention to the main A350 variant, the -900. It was the main development aircraft and the first to enter service.
Summary
- Smooth development and entry into service;
- Strong commercial success;
- Post-pandemic prospects;
- An apparent target aircraft.