Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About Embraer’s Turboprop
Dec. 7, 2020, (c) Leeham News: Embraer studies whether to develop a new generation turboprop to compete with and replace the ATR-72 and De
Havilland Canada Dash 8-400. Both of these airplanes were designed in the 1980-90s, although each went through updates and modernization.
Developing a new turboprop has lots of challenges. Not the least is the size of the market.
Embraer’s preliminary concept for a new generation turboprop airliners. Source: Embraer.
LNA’s Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm discuss the Embraer “E3” concept in the next installment of the “10 Minutes About” series of podcasts.
A year of reckoning for Low-Cost Long-Haul
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Dec. 7, 2020, © Leeham News: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, numerous carriers have either ceased operations or gone into court-supervised restructurings. Among those undergoing restructurings are the world’s two largest low-cost long-haul airlines, AirAsia X and Norwegian Air Shuttle.
Both carriers were in a precarious financial condition before the pandemic. Their troubles contrast with the financial solidity of some major low-cost airlines, including Ryanair and Wizz Air.
IAG closed its Level base in Paris Orly, while Lufthansa ceased SunExpress Deutschland’s operations. NokScoot, a joint venture between Singapore Airlines and Nok Air, also ceased operations after years of losses.
Before the COVID-19 outbreak, Primera Air ceased operations in 2018. Wow Air and XL Airways folded in 2019. Along with AirAsia X’s and Norwegian’s financial struggles, this raises questions about the viability of the low-cost long-haul business model.
LNA looks at the sequence of events that led to four major carriers’ failure and the viability of their business models.
Summary
- Low-cost long-haul isn’t new;
- Bringing no-frills to the next level;
- Undercapitalized for the level of risk;
- When going mainstream does not work;
- One certainty and a question mark on viability.
Pontifications: Don’t lose sight of the future, says top Boeing exec
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 7, 2020, © Leeham News: “It’s really important that we stay in tune with the market dynamics, making the adjustments we need to do and not lose sight of the future. Which is absolutely we are not doing.”
Greg Smith, the of Enterprise Operations and chief financial officer for The Boeing Co., added, “We haven’t lost sight of the importance of making investments that are critical to the future of the business. So, when we think about future product strategy, we’re continuing to reprioritize and streamline our R&D investments to CapEx.
“When we were in pursuit around the NMA, we asked the team to step back and reassess the commercial development strategy and determine what family of aircraft to be needed for the future. And that team continues to work and they’re building off the work that we did on NMA.”
Smith made the remarks at last Friday’s Credit Suisse annual conference.
Boeing further trims 787 production; now sees 5/mo in 2021
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 4, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing will cut the production rate for the 787 to 5/mo by mid next year, it was revealed today. Officials previously announced a rate cut to 5/mo.
EVP Greg Smith made the announcement at the annual Credit Suisse conference, organized by analyst Robert Spingarn.
The rate adjustment is further indicative of the weakness in the widebody market.
Boeing also has a large number of undelivered 787s. This is due in part to COVID, but also due to quality control and safety issues. Earlier this year, Boeing revealed safety and QC issues emerged from body joins and other factors were discovered.
Deliveries unwinding the inventory will continue through 2021, Smith said.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 16. A Hydrogen airliner
December 4, 2020, ©. Leeham News: To dig a level deeper into the challenges of hydrogen airliners, as a next step we design such a plane (on a high level), now that we have covered the basics.
It will make us traverse the fundamental design tradeoffs of such a design. Reflecting on what we discussed in Part 3, “The Application Space for a Hydrogen Airliner,” we focus on the single-aisle short-haul domestic market, Figure 1.
Figure 1. CO2 emissions per aircraft type and range flown. Source: EU Hydrogen Powered Aviation report.
Ryanair orders 737 MAX, giving boost to Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 3, 2020, © Leeham News: Ryanair today announced an order for 75 Boeing 737-8 200 MAXes.
This is the first big order for the airplane since the March 10-13, 2019, grounding. It’s the first since the US Federal Aviation Administration and Brazil’s ANAC lifted their grounding orders last month.
Europe’s EASA plans to lift its grounding order in January. Ryanair, of Ireland, can’t fly the MAX until EASA acts.
The deal is a boost for Boeing and a vote of confidence in the MAX. The global fleet was grounded following the second of two fatal accidents.
The 717 and A220, Part 1: Introduction
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Dec. 3, 2020, © Leeham News: Delta Air Lines, the largest Boeing 717 operator, announced it would retire the type by the end of 2025. Airbus A220s will mostly replace the aging aircraft at the Atlanta-based carrier.
Credit: Delta Air Lines
In this mini-series, we give some background on the main characteristics of the 717 and the gains Delta achieves with a change to the A220.
Summary
- Last of the Mad Dogs;
- Competition, OEM Strategy, and timing cut life short;
- Current operators use 717 strengths;
- The A220, a clean-sheet replacement with more range;
- A route in the Aussie outback.
Exclusive: Embraer turns attention to cargo market, reports Airfinance Journal
By Olivier Bonnassies
Dec. 1, 2020, (c) Airfinance Journal: Embraer is studying the cargo market with a view to launching a freighter conversion programme, sources tell Airfinance Journal.
The Brazilian manufacturer aims to develop a secondary market for converted models in parallel to E2 jet sales and is set to make a decision on a potential Embraer E-Jet freighter conversion in December.
Embraer is weighing P2F conversions for the E195 and E190 E1 jets. The E175 doesn’t have room for a cargo door forward of the engines. Embraer photo.
Embraer was unavailable for comment.
The larger E195 model was involved in Azul Linhas Aereas cargo transportation flights earlier this summer after Brazil’s civil aviation authority granted an exemption for the carriage of additional freight on Embraer passenger aircraft.
“The E190 conversion project is independent from Azul cargo flights,” says one source with knowledge of the manufacturer’s plans. “The idea behind the conversion programme is to get a long-term OEM solution for those fleets,” the source adds.
The Embraer E-Jet freighter conversion will focus on the E190 and E195 models as they fill a gap between the Boeing 737-300 and ATR72 models.
The E190 model is the second-most successful aircraft in Embraer’s product line after the E175. As of 30 September, Embraer had delivered 565 E190s and had a backlog of three units.
Embraer is not studying potential conversion for the smaller members of its fleet because they would lack clearance between the main deck cargo door and the engine, Airfinance Journal understands.
Potential feedstock of E170/175 aircraft is another consideration, although the Brazilian manufacturer continues to sell the E175 model and had a backlog of 153 aircraft and 261 options at the end of the third quarter.
Restoring operations of the 737 MAX
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 1, 2020, ©. Leeham News: Boeing and its customer airlines have 837 MAX airliners that shall get back in the air. After the FAA and ANAC, Brazil’s regulator, have stated the conditions, the work can begin. EASA and Transport Canada will follow with eventual modifications on what needs to be done.
There can be no slip-ups when the 737 MAX flies again. Boeing and the airlines know this; hence there is no room for hurried work or compromises. It will take two years to get the job done, according to Boeing.
Boeing 737 MAX planes stored at Boeing Field. Source: Wikipedia/SounderBruce
HOTR: Boeing hopes for break in China order drought after electors vote for Biden:
By the Leeham News Team
Nov. 30, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing hopes the three-year order drought from China may come to an end next month.
The order, according to market intelligence, would be a boost for the slow-selling 777X. It could also mean new orders for the 787. Orders for the latter dropped significantly enough to prompt Boeing’s decision to shutter the Everett 787 production line next year. Production for the 787 will be consolidated in Charleston (SC).
Dec. 14 is when US presidential electors meet to cast their votes for Joe Biden or President Donald Trump, making official the projected winner. Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232 in projections by all the major media. With almost all votes counted—and in some cases, recounted—Biden has 51.1% of the vote to Trump’s 47.2%. Biden received 80.1m votes to Trump’s 73.9m. The margin was nearly 6.2m.
China hasn’t ordered a Boeing airplane since 2017. Trump launched a trade war with China that escalated several times. He charged, without evidence, that China interfered with the US presidential election.
Boeing hopes for a major order from China as early as December. Included would be a sorely needed order for the 777X. (Shown: Boeing 777-300ER.) Photo source: Boeing.