Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Laminar flow aircraft
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 29, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus flew its “Blade” laminar flow research aircraft for the first time this week. It’s a project in the European Clean Sky research program.
The “Blade” aircraft is a modified Airbus A340-300, where the outer wings have been replaced with special laminar flow wing sections. We will spend a couple of Corners to understand why this research is done and why it’s important.
Figure 1. The “Blade” equipped A340-300. Source: Airbus.
Read more
American wants to decide A350 fate within six months
Sept. 28, 2017, © Leeham Co., Grapevine (TX): American Airlines would like to decide within six months what it will do with its order for 22 Airbus A350-900s, a left-over deal from US Airways before the latter acquired the former.
Derek Kerr, EVP and CFO, told LNC on the sidelines of American’s investors/media day here in a Dallas suburb that the A350s were intended to replace US Airways’ A330s. The airline ordered 22 of the airplanes.
American, however, selected the Boeing 787-8/9 for its mid-size, long haul fleet, ordering 74 42. The new American deferred delivery of the A350s to 2020 and Kerr said a deadline is approaching to decide what to do with the order.
Airbus is working on a 7,000nm A330-900
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
September 28, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus is working on increasing the range of the larger variant of the A330neo to 7,000nm. The present version, A330-900, flies 287 passengers 6,550nm, according to Airbus.
The range increase, which comes about from a take-off weight increase, is designed to make the A330-900 more of a competitor to the best-selling Boeing 787-9.
But the Airbus 7,000nm is not comparable to the 787-9’s 7,635nm with 290 passengers. The companies disagree on most principles on how to measure an airliner’s maximum range.
We use our aircraft model to weed out the differences and tell what is the comparable capabilities of the new A330-900neo variant compared with its main competitor, 787-9.
Summary
- The A330-900 is capable of transporting 287 passengers 7,000nm when using Airbus rules.
- When using rules closer to the ones used by airlines, the range is shorter.
- We apply airline rules to A330-900 and 787-9 and compare their capabilities using our performance model.
Read more
Assessing the impact of the Bombardier decision
Sept. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The aviation world is still in shock over the size of the tariffs the US Department of Commerce plans to impose on Bombardier C Series deliveries to Delta Air Lines.
The DOC yesterday preliminarily decided to impose a 220% tariff on each CS100 delivered to Delta.
Delta Air Lines Bombardier CS100.
Deliveries are scheduled to begin in April.
And this is only half the case. This week’s decision is about launch aide and the equity investments BBD received for the CSeries.
Next week, it will be a determination whether Boeing and the US airline industry faces the threat of injury. Observers believe DOC will conclude there is.
VLA sector dead, Boeing claims, but Large Wide Body also struggles
Subscription Required
Introduction
Sept. 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing declared the Very Large Aircraft sector dead in its most recent Current Market Outlook, removing the category entirely when the 2017 CMO was revealed at the Paris Air Show.
Airbus A350-1000. Sales are slow–is the 350-450 seat sector the next VLA? Airbus photo.
But the Large Wide Body (LWB) category appears to be on life support.
The LWB is 350-seats and above. This includes the Boeing 777-300ER, which is already on its way out, the 777-8, the 777-9 and the Airbus A350-1000.
The Medium Wide Body (MWB) category centers around 300 seats. This includes the A330-900, A350-900, 777-200LR and 787-10.
The Small Wide Body (SWB) includes the 787-8, 787-9, A330-200 and A330-800 in the 220-275 seat sector, twin-aisle aircraft. This does not include the 220-240 seat high density Airbus A321neo and Boeing 737-10 single-aisle aircraft.
Boeing’s CMO defines the twin-aisle markets differently: Small wide-body: <300 seats, Large wide-body: >300 seats.
Summary
- Airlines prefer smaller wide bodies.
- Downsizing trend begun with 787 continues.
- Smaller outsells larger in seven of last 10 years.
- Two of the three years involved extraordinary events.
Cracks in Ryanair’s lowest cost model
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 27, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Ryanair has canceled 2,000 flight over the last few weeks. The background is a lack of pilots, after a change of holiday accounting period.
The cancellations come against a backdrop of pilots leaving for other companies (notably Norwegian) and an EU ruling in favor of Ryanair’s flight crews.
Boeing’s bold ambition
Subscription Required
Introduction
Sept. 25, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The ambitious plan of Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg to grow after-market services from today’s $14bn in revenues to $50bn in 5-10
Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing Global Services.
years was announced nearly a year ago—Nov. 21.
Boeing Global Services, or BGS, combines separate operations in Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Boeing Defense, Space and Security (BCA and BDS respectively).
The growth depends on a combination of improving its current operations, growing organically and through mergers and acquisitions.
Wall Street aerospace analysts generally regard the timeline as ambitious.
In an interview with LNC, the CEO of BGS, Stan Deal, agreed.
Summary
- Muilenburg’s bold ambition.
- The next 100 years.
- Creating a value proposition.
Pontifications: Revisionist history
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 25, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The US Department of Commerce today is scheduled to release its decision on whether to impose tariffs on each Bombardier CS100 delivered to Delta Air Lines, starting this year. (The public announcement is tomorrow.)
The tariffs will be in two forms: one for dumping the aircraft at prices below that sold in the home market (Canada) and one for “injury” to Boeing.
LNC understands the total could be in the range of $32m per plane. We don’t know if this a correct figure.
Boeing told its investors conference last week it’s pursuing this complaint about Bombardier subsidies to avoid another Airbus emerging and destroying Boeing and the US aerospace industry—an idea included in Boeing’s filings with the US government.
In those filings, Boeing claimed Airbus led to the demise of Lockheed’s commercial aviation business and of McDonnell Douglas.
I think this is a bit of revisionist history.