Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
MRJ regional jet delayed until mid-2020
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 23, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Mitsubishi announced a further two years delay of the MRJ regional jet project in a press conference in Tokyo today.
The 90-seater variant of the aircraft will be delivered to the first customer, All Nippon Airways (ANA), mid-2020.
The previous scheduled Entry Into Service (EIS) of mid 2018, was announced December 2015. In total, the MRJ program has announced five delays, totaling seven years. Read more
Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing single-aisle production rates solid
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The global economy is softening and airlines are deferring airplanes, but we don’t see Airbus or Boeing trimming aircraft production for their single-aisle airplanes.
Over-sales and rising fuel prices support today’s A320 and 737 production rates and the increased rates previously announced by Airbus and Boeing.
While oil prices are low compared with the pre-Great Recession levels, Embraer’s John Slattery noted that fuel costs went up more than 48% last year alone. Fuel now costs more than $50/bbl. West Texas Intermediate Crude was selling at $51.08 Thursday, off $1.40. There will be ups and downs, but the trend is up.
Slattery, the president of Embraer Commercial airplanes, believes “fuel efficient fleets will become more critical in the coming years,” he wrote in a Tweet Jan. 7.
A380 cost analysis
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Introduction
Jan. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In a sister article, we will describe how Airbus A380 might change from a flagship aircraft for legacy carriers to a competitive tool for long-range LCCs.
This change of the A380’s profile is based on bringing cabin densities to the levels of other long haul aircraft. We have historically made detailed operating costs studies of the A380 versus other large long-haul aircraft.
With the possible change in the aircraft’s operating profile, we decided to update the study with the A380ceo pitted against its main competitors, Boeing’s 777-300ER and 777-9. Different from the previous study, we now compared all aircraft in a higher density, two-class seating.
Summary:
- The A380neo is pushed out in time for now. Airbus has instead started a cabin density program.
- We update the study of A380 versus its main competitors to see if the cabin changes goes far enough.
- In the last study, the A380 had lower seat mile cost than 777-300ER but was beaten by the 777-9.
- We check if a denser cabin makes the A380 competitive with the 777-9
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 20, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We have now covered the technology around airliner turbofans. Now it’s time for the real stuff: their operational life. Most decisions that an engine designer does is about how the engine shall function in practice.
To understand a typical cycle of an airliner engine and the stresses it endures, we will follow an engine during a typical mission.
Figure 1. A principal picutre of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
We chose a single aisle mission because most flights are with single aisle aircraft and the cycle these fly is the most stressful for an engine. Read more
Filling the Middle Of the Market gap
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus and Boeing had completely different views about the product strategy for the “Middle of the Market” sector (MOM), both for today and the future.
Officials presented their views on how to fill the “Middle of the Market gap” at the Air Finance Journal conference in Dublin.
The Airbus view is: “We got it all covered”.
Boeing’s view is: “Not so fast, there is more to it than meets the eye.” Read more
The regional market and scope clauses
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Union contract Scope Clauses–the provision limiting the weight, capacity or number of aircraft operated by airlines for major carriers–are unlikely to be modified any time soon, panelists at the Air Finance Journal conference in Dublin said.
The restrictive Scope Clauses are predominate in the US. These limit the ability of small airplane manufacturers to sell aircraft in the US. Most affected are Embraer, Bombardier and newcomer Mitsubishi.
Contract negotiations in December, concluded before Christmas, resulted in no changes, surprising some. This will impact planned purchases of aircraft.
We sat with Bombardier’s Ross Mitchell, vice president of commercial operations, to understand why the scope clauses are so important and why they did not change. Read more
The aircraft market will double in 20 years
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The market for passenger aircraft will double over the next 20 years, says Angus Kelly, the CEO of the world’s largest aircraft lessor, AERCAP. He forecast this growth, which is in sync with those from Airbus and Boeing, in his keynote speech at the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers 2017 conference in Dublin.
Kelly linked the growth with the increase in Global air travel. He started by showing what happened in the air travel industry during 2016, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Air transport market 2016 key facts. Source: AERCAP. Click to enlarge.
Passenger travel grew with 5.6% and airlines were more profitable. Negative news was a slowing GDP in China and a widebody market that had a continued slowdown.
Read more
Fuel prices going forward
By Bjorn Fehrm
Source: Google images.
January 16, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Oil has now doubled in price since the lowest point a year ago, with a present level of $50-$60/barrel. What is the trend going forward?
We are at the Growth Frontiers 2017 conference in Dublin, where Paul Horsnell, Head of Commodities research at Standard Chartered and Mike Corley, Mercatus Energy Adviser, gave their view on the future of oil prices.
The air transport market has seen a worldwide passenger and profitability growth over the last 12 months. The driving factors are increased appetite for air travel, especially in Asia, and cheap fuel.
Pontifications: Planes nobody wants
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus and Boeing continue to offer planes that nobody wants.
Well, almost nobody.
The aircraft remain on the published price lists of both companies, for reasons that passeth understanding. Nobody ordered the aircraft for years.
Boeing 737 MAX 10
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has given its sales team the “authority to offer” the 737 MAX 10. The aircraft is a stretched version of the 737 MAX 9, designed to compete more successfully with Airbus A321neo.
Boeing worked on the variant for the last year. It started off as a more ambitious change over the 737 MAX 9, but it turned out too expensive and would have taken too long to get to market. The variant that Boeing now offers to airlines is a simple stretch of the 737 MAX 9.
The backing down to a stretched MAX 9 solves the cost and timing problem, but will it solve the competitiveness problem? We make a first analysis.
Summary:
- The offered 737 MAX 10 is a longer fuselage MAX 9.
- The longer fuselage closes the cabin dimensions gap to the A321neo.
- The 737 MAX 10 is longer and heavier than the MAX 9, affecting performance.
- To save field performance, a change to the main landing gear was necessary.