Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
The Boom SST engine problem
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 28, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We covered Boom Technology’s and Virgin Atlantic’s plans to offer supersonic business class passenger traffic over the Atlantic in recent articles. In the first article, we focused on the problem areas that Boom technology must master.
The most difficult area is to find a suitable engine for the aircraft. Engines for long-range supersonic flight are quite different animals than the normal subsonic airliner engine. We will go through why the engines are different and give an example of how such an engine could look.
Figure 1. Boom Technologies Boom Mach 2.2 airliner with 45 seaters. Source: Boom.
By creating a concrete example of an SST engine for an aircraft the class of the Boom SST, it will be possible to understand if Boom’s claim that suitable cores are available holds water, and how realistic is it to make an SST engine from these.
Summary:
- An SST engine is very different from a modern engine for a long-range airliner.
- A high-performing long-range engine for a normal airliner has a high bypass and pressure ratio.
- A high-perfoming long-range SST engine for a supersonic airliner has a low bypass and pressure ratio.
- Intakes and exhausts on subsonic engine nacelles are simple.
- Intakes and exhausts on supersonic engine nacelles are not simple.
- Considering all these factors, we will design an engine system for the Boom SST to get a deeper understanding of the challenges involved.
Resurgence for ERJ-145
Note: Nov. 24 and 25 are Thanksgiving Holidays in the US. Our next post will be Monday.
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Introduction
Nov. 23, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The 50-seat regional jet market is dead.
That’s the conventional wisdom.
Well, not quite.
Embraer ERJ-145 is finding new life with regional airlines.
Piedmont Airlines, a unit of American Airlines, is adding the 50-seat Embraer ERJ-145 to its fleet. Eleven joined so far and next year the company plans to add 24 more.
CommutAir, an operator for United Airlines, is adding the same aircraft type to its fleet. Forty of them.
Why the mini-resurgence?
Low fuel prices and cheap airplanes.
Summary
- 50-seat regional jets were considered economically obsolete with high fuel prices.
- Sustain low prices provided a boost to the Embraer ERJ-145.
- Bombardier’s CRJ-200 hasn’t seen a similar resurgence.
Emirates feels low-cost, long-haul competition
Note: Nov. 24 and 25 are Thanksgiving Holidays in the US. Our next post will be Monday.
By Bjorn Fehrm
23 November 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Emirates Airline president Tim Clark says the carrier “has to change its approach to long-haul pricing to combat increasing competition” after presenting a half year 2016 profit which plunged 64% on 9 November.
The reason is that traditional mainline carriers are entering the low-cost, long-haul market in addition to the established LCC entrants: Norwegian Air Shuttle, AirAsiaX and Wow Air.
Figure 1. Emirates long-haul A380. Source: Emirates.
Emirates will add new low-cost fares to keep its growing fleet of Airbus A380 and Boeing 777 filled. Clark states this is necessary and that the airline will not back down on its plans for additional aircraft. It will be a period “of fierce competition as more and more international network carriers are entering low-cost, long-haul,” declares the COO.
What has changed? Isn’t Emirates the Kings of competitive long-haul travel? Read more
UBS puts Sell rating on Embraer
Nov. 22, 2016: UBS resumed coverage on Embraer (NYSE: ERJ) today, rating the stock a Sell. It is the only Sell rating among seven analysts previously covering the 
company; six are Buys and one is Hold. UBS rated ERJ Neutral prior to suspending coverage.
Boeing aims to triple services unit; exec changes support goal
Kevin McAllister, the new CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Boeing photo.
Nov. 22, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing hopes to triple its global services businesses from $15bn in revenues to nearly $50bn in the next five years. A corresponding increase is targeted in market share from today’s 7% in commercial aviation and 9% in defense.
Two moves in the executive ranks yesterday are clear signals of the increasing importance of services to The Boeing Co.’s business strategy, revenue growth and profits.
Boeing’s Conner steps down, successor named from GE Aviation
Kevin McAllister, the new president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Boeing photo.
Nov. 21, 2016: Boeing today announced that Ray Conner will retire as CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes well ahead of his Dec. 31, 2017, contract date.
Kevin McAllister of GE Aviation Services was named as his successor.
Boeing said Stan Deal was named president and CEO of Boeing Global Services, a new business unit “to be formed from the customer services groups within the company’s existing commercial airplanes and defense, space and security business units.”
Conner’s message to employees is below.
Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing still can sell planes to Iran Air
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 21, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The vote last week by the US House of Representatives to block Airbus and Boeing from selling airplanes to Iran Air doesn’t do this, even if the US Senate goes along and if President Obama changed his mind to veto the legislation and signed the bill instead.
The House bill only prevents US-sourced financing.
Is a Boom SST good business for Virgin Atlantic?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 21, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The emergence of Boom Technology and Virgin Atlantic’s plans to offer supersonic business class passenger traffic over the Atlantic is intriguing.
Figure 1. Boom Technologies Boom Mach 2.2 airliner with 45 seater. Source: Boom
Enough of the business plans and data around the aircraft are known to enable us to do a first economic analysis.
There will have to be a lot of assumptions in such an analysis but having modeled around 100 different airliner types economics’, we have some data to base our assumptions on.
We think the accuracy will be enough to get a first feel if the Virgin Atlantic venture is tight on margin or a slam dunk (should it become reality).
Summary:
- The operating costs of a supersonic airliner will center on fuel and maintenance.
- These costs will be considerably higher than for a normal widebody airliner.
- The Virgin Atlantic venture targets the higher yield of a business passenger to cater for these costs.
- We check if this is true and if a SST venture is good use of invested capital.
Bjorn’s Corner: Turbofan engine challenges, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 18, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our series on modern turbofan airliner engines, we will now go deeper into the compressor part. Last week, we covered the fundamentals of compressors. As compressors and turbines use the same principles, we also covered the fundamental working principles of turbines.
We also described that compressors are temperamental parts, which can protest to wrong handling with violent “burps” (burst stalls with the combustion gases going out the front of the engine) or end up in a rotating stall where it simply stops working.
Figure 1. Stylistic cross section of a two shaft turbofan with both axial and radial compressor. Source: GasTurb.
Turbines, on the other hand, are your robust companions. Aerodynamically they just work, albeit more or less efficiently dependent on what one asks them to do (mechanically it can be very different; we recently saw a turbine disintegrate with large consequences on an American Airlines Boeing 767 in Chicago). More on the turbines later.
In the GasTurb cross section of a two shaft turbofan in Figure 1, the engine has both an axial and a radial compressor. We will consider why engine designers combine these two for certain engine types. Read more
Airbus, Boeing deferrals may indicate slowing global economy
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Introduction
Boeing 737 flightline at Boeing Field: 737s awaiting delivery. Seattle Times photo via Google images.
Nov. 17, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The deferral by United Airlines of 65 Boeing 737-700s announced Tuesday caused some observers to conclude this has a negative impact on the manufacturer, but this may well overlook a larger issue.
UAL is the latest “quality” airline to announce deferrals to reschedule capital expenditures or because of not needing the aircraft now.
Softening yields, particularly among US airlines, indicate over-capacity despite load factors of 85% or more, say industry observers.
While the backlogs of Boeing and Airbus remain solid today, do the actions of several major airlines indicate the leading edge of a global economy that’s beginning to soften?