Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
Bjorn’s corner; Runway safety systems
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 11, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: I recently wrote about the need for Synthetic Vision and other aids to increase the situational awareness of commercial pilots. I asked the OEMs what their plans were for such aids.
One OEM answered that the system will take time until it gets offered as the additional training for the pilots to use the system is not popular with the airlines. It’s hard to monetize a concrete operational benefit for Synthetic Vision systems.
Figure 1. Embraer’s E190-E2 currently under flight test. Source: Embraer.
I have now got a slightly different answer from Embraer. Here is what they say. Read more
Boeing lays ground to cut 777 rates again
Greg Smith, CFO of The Boeing Co.
Aug. 11, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing is laying the groundwork to further reduce the production rate on the 777 Classic and scrap a planned rate increase for the 787 from 12 to 14/mo.
Greg Smith, CFO of The Boeing Co., reiterated a message from CEO Dennis Muilenburg during the 2Q2016 earnings call that these rate adjustments may be forthcoming.
Smith made his remarks at an investors day conference sponsored by Jefferies & Co.
Irkut MC-21-200 deepened analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August11, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In February we did the first analysis of the Irkut MC-21-200. The analysis was made on the first data available. During the Farnborough Air Show, we got more information around the MC-21 and could see that an update of our first analysis was called for.
Figure 1. MC-21-200, the smaller varaint of the MC-21. Source: Irkut
At the time we compared the MC-21-200 to Airbus A320 and concluded they are about the same size. With the new information, we could see that there is a size difference.
Summary:
- The MC-21-200 is close to Airbus A320neo in external dimensions, a bit smaller in the cabin and has lower take-off weights.
- Irkut, the OEM, suggested standard two class capacity is 132 seats. This is with space to spare in several places.
- To make a fair efficiency comparison with the A320neo, we develop an optimized cabin for the MC-21-200.
Embraer books 1H2016 loss and lowers guidance
By Bjorn Fehrm
August09, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Embraer presented its second quarter and first half 2016 results on July 29, posting a loss and lowering guidance for the year.
The company is in a bridge period on its commercial aircraft side, with sales and deliveries focusing on the scope clause optimized E-Jet 175 while the company readies the upgraded E-Jet E2 series.
Figure 1. Embraer’s best-selling E175 regional jet. Source: Embraer
At the same time, the company’s buoyant Business Jet side has started to feel the slump that has hit this market since 2014. Combined with a domestic Defence and Security market which is dependent on Brazil’s economy, it’s been a first half of 2016 which has been a bit tougher than Embraer planned.
The company judges that the slow Business jet sales will continue and has therefore lowered its full year guidance. Read more
Boeing slightly leads Airbus in YTD orders
Aug. 8, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing continues to lead Airbus in the race for orders post-Farnborough Air Show (FIA), but there are key orders announced there that haven’t been booked on the two OEMs order books.
Boeing hasn’t booked most of the firm orders yet from Volga Dnepr/Air Bridge Cargo announced at the show for 747-8Fs. Airbus hasn’t booked the 100 announced orders for A320s from AirAsia. Boeing also announced some 737 MAX orders that need to be firmed up into contracts before booking to its website.
The AirBridge orders will be closely watched. Boeing said at Farnborough that the MOU for 20 747-8Fs announced at the Paris Air Show a year earlier were now a firm contract, over six years. But Boeing and AirBridge did not say how many were firm orders, other than to identify four aircraft that were previously delivered under leases as part of the 20.
Reuters believes that 13 of the 20 are firm. Those four previous deliveries appear to be part of the 13, but this is unclear. Airfinance Journal reported that seven of the 20 will be taken by Boeing Capital Corp and leased to AirBridge. If true, this adds about $1bn to the Boeing balance sheet for customer financing.
This detail is important because AirBridge is very possibly the last customer that will order the 747-8. Boeing said it now has a backlog to 2019, but because the Airbridge transaction remains murky at best, the details are equally murky.
Drilling down into details of the orders placed through July:
Read more
Pontifications: Twelve new designs in 10 years spurred orders
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 8, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The book:bill for Airbus and Boeing this year will be hard-pressed to reach one. Airbus has a better shot, given lower production rates. But the recent years of record-setting orders are over for now.
Unlike some, this doesn’t represent a bursting bubble to LNC. Rather, it’s a natural progression of the cycles that are historically seen.
It’s necessary to put some context into the recent years of these unprecedented number of orders.
Bombardier records $628m loss in 1H2016
Aug. 5, 2016: Bombardier reported its second quarter and half year results today, with a net loss of $628m for the half and a $490m net loss for the quarter.
Alain Bellemare, CEO of Bombardier. CBC photo via Google images.
Results for the commercial division recorded a loss before interest and taxes of $586m.
Ilyushin Finance Corp., one of the customers for the C Series that’s been on LNC’s “Red” category as a high-risk customer, reduced its order for 32 CS300s to 20. IFC also dropped five options.
“We continue to make very good progress executing our turnaround plan,” said Alain Bellemare, President and Chief Executive Officer, said in a statement. “We delivered on our financial commitments, achieved our program milestones and positioned Bombardier to meet both our full year guidance and 2020 goals.”
JP Morgan was the first of the research notes we received today, providing this take:
Bjorn’s Corner: Enhanced Vision
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 05, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we described Synthetic Vision and discussed why it hasn’t got its breakthrough yet. If we would have taken things chronologically, we should have started with Enhanced Vision systems.
Once again Gulfstream Business jets was the first to introduce Enhanced Vision Systems (EVS) into service. In 2001 it was certified as an option to the Gulfstream’s flight deck, using an infrared camera to generate a picture of what happens in front of the aircraft when visibility is bad, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Gulfstream Business Jet with Enhanced Vision IR camera. Source: Gulfstream.
State officials need to act now, ahead of lean times coming at Boeing Everett
August 4, 2016 (c) Leeham Co.: With the news that Boeing may terminate the 747-8 program, effective around 2019 when the current backlog expires, the obvious
Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is running for reelection. He needs to think about the coming lean times at the Boeing Everett plant in less than three years. So does his challenger and all the incumbents and candidates for Legislature. USA today photo via Google images.
question arises: what happens to the assembly line space now occupied by the massive airplane?
Given that the State of Washington elected and appointed officials generally view Boeing in a reactive rather than a proactive mode, an open letter to them seems appropriate.
It’s imperative that Washington officials begin planning now for some lean times ahead for the Everett plant. Waiting until 2019 is too little, too late.
Air Lease sounds caution note for Airbus, Boeing
Air Lease Corp. made the predictions on its 2Q2016 earnings call Friday.
ALC also predicted Boeing will further lower the production rate of the 777 Classic from the announced 5.5/mo in 2018. ALC did not specify a rate, but some aerospace analysts believe a rate of 4/mo is coming.
They also believe neither Boeing nor Airbus will increase production rates of the 737 to 57/mo or A320s to 60/mo. Boeing announced previously that it is considering increasing the 737 rate from the announced 52/mo, effective 2018, to 57/mo. Airbus previously announced it will increase the production rate of the A320 to 60/mo and is considering a rate of 63/mo.
Airbus is bringing the rate up from 44/mo to 60 by 2018.
Read more
22 Comments
Posted on August 10, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Leeham News and Comment
737, 777 Classic, 787, A320, Air Lease Corp., Airbus, Boeing, John Plueger