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Introduction
Nov. 17, 2015, © Leeham Co. The chief commercial officer of Embraer sees US mainline carriers adding
aircraft in the 100-plus seat sector that will open new opportunities for the largest E-Jets hitherto a limited interest in this region.
First among high profile possibilities: United Airlines, which was identified as a major prospect for Bombardier and its CS100. According to multiple news reports, UA is holding out an order for the CS100 as an inducement for some pilot contract revisions. According to Market Intelligence, the potential order is for an equal number of orders and options, well below 50 orders but one which would be a crucial win for struggling Bombardier.
But Embraer isn’t going to let this order go without a stiff fight. Through United Express partners, EMB has a large installed base of E-175s operating for United. This is viewed as a major advantage by EMB’s CCO, John Slattery.
Summary
Posted on November 17, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airlines, American Airlines, Bombardier, CSeries, E-Jet, Embraer, Premium, United Airlines, US Airways
737-7 A319, 737-700, Air Canada, Airbus, airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CS100, CS300, CSeries, E-175, E-190, E-190 E2, E-195, E-195 E2, E175 E2, Embraer, JetBlue, John Slattery, United Airlines, United Express, US Airways, World Trade Organization, WTO
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Introduction
Delta Air Lines CEO Richard Anderson is right.
Actual market values for 10-year old Boeing 777-200ERs are around $10m, not the $50m-ish suggested by Boeing and professional appraisal firms.
This is the conclusion of our Market Intelligence of real-world demand for these airplanes, not some theoretical book appraisal.
Furthermore, used 777-300ERs are in little demand.
The costs involved in reconfiguration and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) simply upend traditional expectations.
Summary
Posted on November 16, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Nov. 16, 2015, © Leeham Co. Boeing will target “long term liabilities” in its contract negotiations with SPEEA, the engineers union, its president quoted CEO Dennis Muilenburg as telling him in September.
Ryan Rule, president of the local SPEEA union, met for an hour with Muilenburg when he was here for a visit by China’s president Xi Jinping. Rule termed the meeting cordial. He told Leeham News last week that Muilenburg wasn’t specific about the “asks” Boeing will seek in contract negotiations next year, citing only “long term liabilities,” which Rule took to mean health care and pension benefits.
Posted on November 16, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
13 November 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Mitsubishi flew their MRJ for the first time this week. I could have added “finally” because it is two years late compared to the original time plan. But who cares when the aircraft is finally ready to fly and everything goes well? (Well, the customers do, actually.)
It was a big moment for Japan, a nation with a sizable aeronautical industry. Japan has been a major partner to Boeing in their larger airplane programs over the 757/767 to the 777 and 787. For the Dreamliner, they even designed and made the hottest item, the high-tech Carbon Fibre Reinforced Plastic (CFRP) wing.
Despite having such a capable aeronautical industry, Japan has not built an own civil aircraft since it closed the production line for the YS-11 twin engined turboprop in 1973. Since then it has acted as sub-supplier and has worked on certain military programs like the Mitsubishi F-2 fighter, based on the Lockheed Martin F16.The Mitsubishi corporation flew the MRJ90 for the first time Wednesday from the Nagoya Airport in Japan (screenshot from video from Mitsubishi). Most of the flight testing will be done in Moses Lake (WA), USA, where four test airplanes will be based.
Moses Lake is blessed with open skies, little air traffic, a long runway and good weather. It has a long history of flight testing, serving as a test-base for Japan Air Lines 747 pilot training for decades. Boeing also uses Moses Lake for flight testing.
We analyzed the MRJ90 and its main competitor the Embraer E175 in a subscriber article the 25th of January. We will revisit the main characteristics and then comment on what could be seen from the first flight. Read more
Posted on November 13, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bjorn's Corner, Bombardier, CSeries, E-Jet, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
737, 757, 767, 777, 787, A320, Bombardier, Embraer, Mitsubishi, MRJ-90
Nov. 11, 2015, © Leeham Co. Boeing’s two leading unions, the IAM District 751 and SPEEA, are girding for a second try in the Washington State Legislature to retroactivity tie job retention to $8.7bn in tax breaks given by the state in 2013 in exchange for the 777X final assembly line and the airplane’s wing production factory being located in Everett (WA).
IAM 751 is Boeing’s “touch labor” union that assembles all the 7 Series airplanes in Washington State. The District also represents some Boeing employees outside Washington. SPEEA is the engineers union that represents all in-state engineers and technicians under contract to Boeing.
The 787 assembly site in Charleston (SC) is not represented at this time by any union.
Leaders of 751 and SPEEA Monday said they will renew their efforts to tie jobs-for-tax breaks when the next session of the state Legislature convenes in January. Efforts in last January’s session came up short, largely overshadowed by the bi-annual budget session that required special sessions extending into the summer recess because no agreements could be reached.
Posted on November 11, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
Nov. 11, 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Emirates Airline showed off its newly delivered two class A380 at this week’s Dubai Air Show. With a record 615 seats, this is the densest A380 that has been delivered by Airbus.
Emirates have reached this record seat number by replacing the first class cabin (and showers) with economy seats. Part of the business area has gone as well. What remains on the Premium side are 58 of the well known lie-flat seats and the ubiquitous Emirates bar.
The aircraft is aimed at high density destinations which are reached within a 12 hours limit, therefore the aircraft has no crew rest facilities.
The question is, what improvements in seat-mile costs does this configuration bring and how does it stack up against a similarly configured Boeing 777-300ER or 777-9?
Will there be a change in the economical pecking order compared to the more classical long range configurations that we looked at December last year?
We used our proprietary performance model to find out.
Summary:
Posted on November 11, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
By Bjorn Fehrm
Nov. 10 2015, ©. Leeham Co: The Dubai Air Show is on its second day and there are no mega orders. The one that should have been, the mid-range requirement for Emirates Airline, has been postponed, not only to “next year” but for “another year.”
What is the reason? Are we seeing a widebody oversupply fueled by used Boeing 777s/Airbus A330s being available in the market “for very low prices,” as suggested by Delta Air Lines CEO Richard Anderson? Are these the first signs of a damping of an order bonanza which has been going on for five years? Will things be more quiet (or should we say normal) going forward?
We don’t think so. Emirates just want to make the right choice and the equation has got more complicated as it has been working the problem. And it is in no hurry.
Posted on November 10, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
With the first Embraer E-Jet E2 under assembly, we take a look at the E1 and E2 programs in the run-up to roll-out of the E-190 E2 next year and projected Entry Into Service (EIS) in 2018.
Summary
Posted on November 9, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Nov. 9, 2015, (c) Leeham Co. Airbus last week launched its A380 flying test bed with the A350-1000’s Rolls-Royce Trent XWB 97,000 lb engine placed in the number two position.
The first thing that came to mind when I saw the photo was that if Airbus put three more engines on it, you’d have the A380neo. Or maybe call it the A380TXWB. Done and dusted, as they say in England.
Posted on November 9, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
06 November 2015, ©. Leeham Co: COMAC’s C919 was rolled out in the week. We got to see a new shiny aircraft which looked ready to fly. The nicely curved fuselage and wings were immaculate, the paint was shiny and the CFM LEAP-1C engines were ready to go.
Yet many ask, when will it fly for the first time? It used to be that when the airframe was finished and the engines ran reliably it was time to fly. No longer! Today the most challenging part of an aircraft program is the integration of all the complex systems which hide under the skin. This is what kept the Bombardier CSeries on ground longer than it should and the Boeing 787 and Airbus A380 had the same flu (the latter also had to short wires).
It is the part of the aircraft which takes longest to get to work reliably. The A380 is known for its long period of nuisance warnings from the complex avionics system after entry into service and the reliability work for the 787 has to a large extent been one of software tuning of its system side.
As the system function of modern aircraft has grown more complex the whole architecture of how it was built had to be changed. Here’s how.
Posted on November 6, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm