Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus/Boeing duopoly single-aisle is safe well into 2030 decade
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Introduction
Dec. 28, 2014: Two challenges to the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing in the 150-220 seat single-aisle sector move forward in development in 2015, but neither is in a position to be a threat for the balance of this decade, nor even in the next.
Both challenges, the COMAC C919 from China, and the Irkut MC-21 from Russia, will for various reasons fall short of the Airbus A320/321 and Boeing 737-8/9 and plans to design the next generation new single-aisle airplane.
Summary
- The C919’s chief advantage was eliminated when Airbus and Boeing moved to reengine the A320 and 737 families.
- C919 retains pricing advantage but won’t overcome duopoly dominance.
- By the time the C919 enters service, Airbus and Boeing will have the second generation of LEAP and GTF engines available.
- The MC-21 takes into account better passenger comfort through a wider fuselage, but engines will be no better than those used on Airbus and Boeing.
- The MC-21 sales potential will be highly limited because Russia still hasn’t become a full trading partner due to political direction.
Regulators dither on real-time tracking as another airplane goes missing
Air France 447.
Malaysia Airlines MH370.
AirAsia QZ8501.
Dec. 28, 2014: Each flight disappeared over water. Search parties had a general idea where to look for AF447, but it still took five days before wreckage was spotted in the water and two years before the flight recorder and cockpit voice recorder were recovered.
Searchers think they know generally–very generally–where to look for MH370, but no wreckage at all has been spotted.
And now there’s AirAsia QZ8501. Searchers have a general idea where to look, but not precisely.
Aviation regulators are infamous for their “tombstone” mentality–not requiring safety changes until people die.
How many people have to die before regulators finally mandate real-time flight tracking?
ICAO, the international organization that overseas safety and regulatory issues, has been dithering since MH370 about mandating real-time flight tracking. But the issue has been around since the 2009 Air France crash. There has been no action.
AirAsia demonstrates that real-time tracking is not just trans-ocean flights that need tracking. MH370 also showed this–the flight was a relatively short, intra-Asia flight with an even shorter over-water portion when contact was lost.
It’s time for ICAO to make a decision, and if it doesn’t then individual country regulators need to step up and require real-time tracking. This won’t save the lives lost but recovering wreckage and the black boxes in a timely manner could lead to safety and operational changes that will save lives in the future.
We don’t need more tombstones.
First flight for Boeing’s KC-46A tanker program launched Sunday
Dec. 28, 2014: Boeing launched the first flight of its KC-46A tanker program on Sunday.
The flight, with a 767-2C and not a tanker-configured KC-46A, was with what’s known as EMD 1. EMD stands for Engineering, Manufacturing and Development. EMD 1 is the first of four 767-2C aircraft that will make up the flight test fleet.
AirAsia A320 disappears en route in bad weather, but weather won’t be only area of investigative focus
Dec. 28, 2014: Weather will be a prime area of focus by investigators of the disappearance of AirAsia flight QZ8501. The flight, an Airbus A320-200 manufactured in 2008 and powered by CFM 56 engines, deviated from its intended flight path due to weather conditions, according to reports from officials in Indonesia.
It’s presumed the airplane’s disappearance is an accident.
With these reports, investigators will put weather conditions at the top of their list of areas to probe. They will attempt to determine whether there was a high altitude upset due to turbulence that caused the plane to lose control; whether the plane was intact when it presumably crashed into the sea or whether it came apart in flight, and if so whether this possibility was caused by stresses beyond design limits. Investigators will attempt to determine whether the plane was struck by lightning, causing a chain of events leading to a crash.
Looking ahead in 2015 in commercial aviation
Here’s a visualization of events to look for in commercial aviation in 2015.
Click to enlarge for crisp view.
Boeing 777-300ER and its replacements; A350-1000 and 777-9X.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
Dec. 21, 2014: Last week we did a deep analysis of A380 and its competition. It has been windy weeks for the aircraft since the Airbus Global Investor Forum and it was time to bring some needed facts on the table. These facts showed there is a clear difference between the hype being perpetuated in the media and the reality. As we cleared the situation around the A380, we also touched on the large twins that could fulfill at least parts of its missions.
There has been a lot of discussion around these aircraft as well as they form the battle of titans one level down from A380, the large, long-haul market today dominated by Boeing’s 777-300ER (the A380 does not have a real competitor–the 748i is clearly smaller, in fact so much smaller that it will be engulfed by the 777-9X).
Summary
- The 777-300ER had an exclusive run in its size until launch of the A350-1000;
- The A350-1000 doesn’t enter service until 2017;
- 777-9 EIS set for 2020, with hopes to advance by six months;
- We undertake a full economic analysis which gives good cues as to the future dominance of Boeing or Airbus in this highest margin segment of the market.
Odds and Ends: Qatar gets first A350-900; WTO Airbus-Boeing fight, continued; A380, continued; 767-2C first flight; our Holiday schedule
Dec. 21, 2014
- Here’s a piece we did for CNN.com on the Year Ahead in Aviation for 2015.
Qatar gets first A350-900: Unless U-Turn Al U-Turns again, Qatar Airways
Source: USA Today.
will take delivery of the world’s first Airbus A350-900 on Dec. 22. Reuters has a retrospective of the airplane’s development.
- Update: The A350 got delivered, and Airbus says it won’t cancel the A380. Reuters has this report.
WTO Airbus-Boeing fight, continued: It never ends. As we reported Friday, the European Union filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization over Washington State tax breaks extended to Boeing for the 777X. Long-time readers of this column know how we feel about the WTO generally and the trade dispute between Europe (Airbus) and the US (Boeing) specifically. We consider it all a waste of time and money.
Now that the EU has officially complained about the 777X tax breaks, we fully expect the US Trade Representative to officially file a counter-action against allegations Airbus is receiving illegal subsidies for the A350. During the height of the previous complaints, USTR and Boeing complained about launch aid provided for the A350. The EU said this aid complied with the findings and compliance requirements of the previous dispute. The USTR tried to wrap the A350 aid into the then-ongoing complaint, which was rejected by the WTO for procedural reasons.
EU files subsidy complaint over 777X WA State tax breaks; we raised issue at the time
The European Union has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization over $8.7bn in tax breaks offered by Washington State to Boeing in exchange for locating the 777X assembly site and wing production plant in the state.
Reuters has this report.
We raised concerns at the time the breaks were offered that these were illegal. These were extensions of the state tax breaks provided in 2003 for the Boeing 787 program, which were ruled illegal in 2012 under a separate EU complaint to the WTO.
Our stories are here and here. Boeing recently issued a card talking about the tax breaks. This may be found here.
Reuters reported earlier that the 777X complaint might be filed.
Update, 1:00pm: Boeing provided this statement in response:
“The EU already failed to make these claims as part of the current proceedings.
“The EU’s effort to again raise this issue is a mere diversion from the fact that European governments have provided, and continue to provide, massive amounts of illegal launch aid to Airbus for every airplane development program. It is an effort to further delay EU compliance with the WTO’s 2011 ruling that launch aid is an illegal, market-distorting subsidy.
“The tax measures the EU challenges today are not market-distorting subsidies. They are available to all aerospace companies, including Airbus and its suppliers.”