Leeham News and Analysis
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Redefining the 757 replacement: Requirement for the 225/5000 Sector, Part 5.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
11 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: After having analyzed the different alternatives which would be available to Boeing for its Middle Of the Market, MOM, studies and having singled out the most competitive configurations, we will now add revenue to the equation. In the work to establish Cash and Direct Operating Costs for the aircraft, we saw which variant had the best cost for a certain capacity and utilization. We could not see which aircraft would be the most profitable however; this requires that we bring in the revenue side.
Revenue management analysis of different aircraft types on an airlines network is a science in it selves. Sophisticated fare class strategies with connected marketing activities makes such studies elaborate and beyond the scope of our analysis. Our primary goal is to understand the difference in operational efficiency of a single versus dual aisle aircraft with the same seating capacity. For this, a simpler average margin concept will work that shows us the effects of single versus dual aisle for aircraft margins in the MOM segment.
Summary
- We select based on Cash and Direct Operating Costs the best aircraft for the different market segments.
- To understand the revenue earning capability of the different alternatives we introduce a revenue model which takes into account aircraft utilization.
- With the costs and the revenue side represented we can develop a good understanding for the cross over between single and dual aisle for MOM.
- We will use this knowledge as we subsequently look into Airbus response to what Boeing would bring to the market.
ISTAT: Industry stability as good as this CEO has ever seen it
Despite the constant fears of an impending order bubble, the CEO of one of the world’s largest leasing companies says the airline industry’s stability is as good as he’s ever seen it in his career.
Jeff Knittel, president of CIT Transportation, to which CIT Aerospace reports, told a press briefing Tuesday at the ISTAT conference that US network carriers are stronger than they have ever been, low cost carriers (LCCs) are maturing and ultra low cost carriers (ULCCs) are changing the dynamics of business. Read more
ISTAT: Economist Adam Pilarski on oil prices
Adam Pilarski, the economist from Avitas who years ago predicted oil prices would hit $40/bbl to the near-total disbelief by delegates attending the ISTAT convention where he made his prediction, proved nearly right. Prices dipped into the mid-$40s two-three years ahead of his forecast and for somewhat different reasons.
At this year’s ISTAT conference, Pilarski said that to predict oil prices, you need to look at two basic facts: the industry is not competitive and we are not running out of oil.
Here is a paraphrase synopsis of his comments.
ISTAT: Randy Tinseth: pax traffic going from 3bn today to 7bn by 2033
Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing of Boeing, presented today to the ISTAT conference. Here is a synopsized summary of his comments.
ISTAT: Airlines look at the market and explain differences between the past and today
March 9, 2015: The top four players now are acting differently than previous eras, focusing on profits and return on capital instead of market share, says Mark Eliasen, vice president of finance and treasurer of Alaska Airlines.
Alaska returned 18% on its margin, the highest in the US industry, with low costs relative to its competitors. The company has grown at a rate of 7% year over year for several years. “We’re really happy with a single fleet.” The Boeing 737-focus allowed dramatic gains in lowering costs.
Of the five investment grade airlines, Eliasen notes that four of them are single-fleet carriers.
Nico Buchholz, EVP of Fleet Management of Lufthansa Airlines, said European carriers don’t have capacity discipline and the network carriers have to reinvent themselves. Lufthansa Group includes low cost carriers that are growing while Lufthansa itself strives to be the No. 1 choice for its traditional market.
Eurowings, a Lufthansa company, provides low cost service to short haul routes and soon is expanding to long haul. Eurowings prompted other LH airlines, including Austrian, Lufthansa and Swiss, to lower costs because if they didn’t, growth would happen at Eurowings.
Buchholz predicts consolidation in Europe and says Lufthansa Group and IAG (the British Airways group) will be two of the survivors. “But I wouldn’t go beyond that” in predictions, at least not before the crowd of 1,800 at the ISTAT conference where the remarks were made.
ISTAT: Warning signs for airline industry
March 9, 2015: There are warning signs the global airline industry needs to heed, says John Luth, CEO of the US consultancy Seabury Group.
The economic recovery isn’t uniform across the globe, Luth said in the keynote address to ISTAT, the International Society for Transport Aircraft Traders at its 2015 conference in Phoenix.
Luth said North American airlines had to “fix” themselves before consolidation into four major carriers that now control 71% of the market. In Europe and Asia, the top four carriers control far less traffic. In Europe, low cost carriers now control 40% of the market while in Asia LCCs control 19%, a sharp rise over a few years ago.