CSeries completes high speed test; Weather remains the variable for first flight

The Bombardier CSeries completed the high speed taxi tests this morning. This means the first flight should be just days away, weather dependingand the forecast is iffy.

Bombardier tells us they “need” a clear, dry, calm day. Plans are to fly early in the morning–whatever day it turns out to be–because winds are calmer then than later in the day at Mirabel Airport north of Montreal.

The Boeing 787 first flight was on a rainy day. This Boeing-made video shows the weather conditions, with a wet runway and gloomy skies.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuvM8TQ4zZc&w=420&h=315]

The 787 first flight was cut short due to rain moving in around Boeing Field and by the time the 787 landed, rain was falling.

Bombardier needs better conditions. We’ve asked whether this is by company policy or due to Canadian regulations; we’ll update when we have an answer.

But excitement is building. BBD tells us that people have lined the runway watching the taxi tests and plane-spotting in anticipation for the first flight.

FedEx takes first 767-300ERF; sources say readies 767-2CF order

FedEx took delivery of its first Boeing 767-300ERF yesterday.

FedEx FED 767-F - FA294247 K65968

Boeing Photo

As we reported way back on June 16, our market intelligence tells us FDX is lined up to become the first commercial customers of the 767-2C, the new platform on which the KC-46A tanker is based. The 767-2C is about six feet longer (165 ft 6 in) than the 767-200ER (159 ft 2 in) on which the 2C is based but shorter than the -300ER.

KC46A schematic

Boeing rendering

Separately:

  • Aspire Aviation has a long analysis of the DOJ lawsuit against the American Airlines-US Airways merger that further decimates the heart of the case.

CSeries first flight may be Sunday, says Reuters

The thrice-delayed first flight of the Bombardier CSeries may come Sunday, reports Reuters.

We previously posted some thoughts on the pending first flight. We expanded on these thoughts in our e-mail newsletter Aug. 26. Below is the entire newsletter.

Read more

Delta orders Airbus–a look back at the history between the two companies

Delta Air Lines announced an order today for 30 A321ceos and 10 A330-300 HGW. This is the first Airbus order from Delta in two decades; the only previous order was for nine A310-300s during the days of CEO Ron Allen. Allen ordered these aircraft shortly after acquiring A310-200s/300s when Delta bought part of the failing Pan Am.

But when the 1991 Gulf War happened and the US airline industry went into a tail-spin, Allen undertook a cost-cutting procedure that eliminated all A310s from the fleet, including the new orders–before all nine had even been delivered.

Delta subsequently was one of three US airlines to sign a 20-year exclusive supplier agreement with Boeing; American Airlines and Continental Airlines were the other two. But when, in 1997, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas proposed merging, the European Union demanded that the exclusive supplier agreements be voided. Boeing agreed not to enforce them. Still, Delta did not order Airbus until now.

But the current Delta management, led by Richard Anderson,* once ran Northwest Airlines. This management took over Delta upon its exit from bankruptcy following 9/11 turmoil that decimated the US airline industry. Anderson and his team ordered from both Airbus and Boeing while running Northwest, preferring to maintain a dual-source supply of airplanes. Anderson’s Delta previously ordered 100 Boeing 737-900ERs.

Delta is one of the few airlines that has yet to order the re-engined Airbus or Boeing single-aisle airplanes. The philosophy is that it wants to see the new technology in action before signing on. Northwest Airlines was the US launch customer for the Boeing 787, an order placed after Anderson’s team left NWA. Delta inherited this order when NWA was acquired, but Anderson’s team didn’t like what was happening with the 787-8 program and deferred the 787 order to at least 2020, according to the data base Ascend. Many think Delta may never take the 787, but this remains to be seen.

Delta came very close to ordering the Bombardier CSeries, but its caution against new technology and a worsening economy at the time killed the order for the time being.

  • We recently resumed doing an email-only newsletter after a hiatus of several years. In the one issued Tuesday, we discussed the implications of the first flight of the Boeing 787-9. The Wichita Eagle wrote this article based on the newsletter.
  • *A reader pointed out we originally wrote “Ron Anderson.” Ron Anderson is another figure in aviation we know, who once worked for FedEx and was the founder of Intrepid Aviation . Thanks for the correction.

Odds and Ends: Slowing sales; Airbus in Japan; MRJ delay; Crandall on merger

Slowing Jet Sales: Within a few days, Bloomberg, Reuters and The Seattle Times each had stories about slowing jet sales.

Here is the Bloomberg story, focusing on cargo sales.

Here is the Reuters story.

Here is The Seattle Times story.

The theme of each is worrisome, but with Richard Aboulafia’s comments to The Times, we disagree with his view on American Airlines. American has an ancient fleet of Boeing MD-80s and aging Boeing 757s that have to be replaced, and we believe the Airbus and Boeing orders won’t go away if the merger with US Airways is blocked.

Airbus still trying Japan: Airbus, which has never had a lot of luck penetrating the market in Japan, still appears to have an uphill battle, according to this article. The Reuters piece quotes Airbus’ John Leahy at the Paris Air Show; when we spoke with Leahy by phone from the IATA AGM immediately before the PAS, Leahy wasn’t quite as upbeat as quoted in the Reuters article. Leahy tamped down speculation that he’d have a Japanese order for the A350 at the PAS (and he did not) but neither was he ready to predict any timeline when one might be forthcoming.

Aspire Aviation continues to believe Boeing may place the 777X wing production in Japan as a means to secure 777X orders and block the A350.

Mitsubishi’s delay: Mitsubishi’s latest delay on the MRJ90 program is being blamed on not following FAA process, according to this article.

Poor South Carolina 787 deliveries: All Things 787 reports that Boeing’s Charleston (SC) 787 assembly plant has delivered only four 787s this year.

Crandall on DOJ AA-US lawsuit: Former American Airlines CEO Robert Crandall (who retired in 1998) has a very good analysis of the faults of the Department of Justice lawsuit to block the American-US Airways merger in this Bloomberg TV interview. He’s first up in the 22 minute segment.

Desperation: Kingfisher sued International Aero Engines for $236m over allegedly defective and poorly designed engines on the Airbus A320. This doesn’t pass the laugh test and smacks of desperation. The V2500 has been on the A320 for decades and seems to have been designed just fine and performing well.

Busy news Friday: BBD gets CSeries first flight clearance, AA-US get early DOJ court date

It’s an unusually busy news day for a Friday. Bombardier received its clearance from Transport Canada to conduct the first flight of the CSeries. BBD has not announced a date, which will be contingent upon weather and the airplane, but word has leaked out that BBD has a VIP event of some kind on Sept. 17, a Tuesday. The Toronto Globe and Mail reported the date but BBD told the paper that date remains tentative and it is not necessarily the date the first flight will take place. Reuters reports the first flight should precede the 17th. The Financial Post reports that the CSeries will fly during the Sept. 17 event, which is to celebrate the launch for the flight testing program.

BBD will webcast the first flight here.

Here is BBD’s press release about receiving Transport Canada’s authorization.

The other big news today is the win by American Airlines and US Airways for a November 25 trial date over the US Department of Justice lawsuit seeking to block the merger. The lawsuit is also holding up American’s exit from bankruptcy. The federal judge overseeing the bankruptcy case set a hearing on Sept. 12 on motions to approve AA’s exit.

DOJ sought a March trial date, a delay which would have effectively killed the merger as much as the lawsuit itself might. DOJ opposed the early date.

Separately, Boeing is conducting ground tests in preparation for the first flight of the 787-9. No date has been set for the flight.

Odds and Ends: MAKS summary; Airbus look; A350 launch aid; slow freighter sales

MAKS Air Show Summary: This account summarizes the orders placed at the Moscow Air Show, known as MAKS. It appears only Bombardier among Western OEMs made any commercial deals.

Looking at Airbus: Aspire Aviation takes a long look at Airbus.

A350 Launch Aid: Airbus and Germany are at odds over more than 600m Euros of a 1.1bn Euro loan for development of the A350 XWB. The sticking point: job allocation. Why Airbus needs or wants this government-sponsored launch aid remains a mystery to us. Get the governments out of its knickers and be a true commercial company.

Slow freighter sales: This report details slow freighter sales for Boeing and Airbus. This is reflected in the poor sales of the Boeing 747-8F and the Airbus A330-200F.

Irkut makes 10% fuel advantage claim over NEO, MAX for MC-21

Russia’s Irkurt claims its MC-21 mainline jet, a direct competitor to the Airbus A320/321neo and Boeing 737-8/9 MAX, will be some 10% more economical. Irkut claims the MC-21 will be up to 23% more efficient than the current engine-powered Airbus and Boeing products.

Thanks to a reader who is at the MAKS air show, we received this photo from a slide presentation. Although others may have seen this information before, this is the first time we have.

MS21_FuelBurn

Other MAKS news:

  • Sukhoi inked orders for some more Superjet 100s.
  • Still no announcements from Airbus, Boeing or Embraer.
  • Ilyushin Finance Corp and Bombardier announced that the first Russian operator of the CSeries CS300 will Vim Airlines. IFC ordered 32 with 10 more options at the Paris Air Show.

In other news, Boeing and Canada’s WestJet announced a letter of intent for 65 737 MAXes: 25 MAX 7s and 40 MAX 8s. This will enable WestJet to expand and replace its 737 NG fleet. Delivery begins in September 2017, making WestJet one of the first operators.

Bombardier scores huge deal at Russian air show

Bombardier scored a huge deal at the Russian air show, MAKS, with a letter of intent for an order for up to 100 Q400 turbo-props.

The Q400 has been trailing rival ATR, which is half owned by Airbus parent EADS, for the ATR-72 turbo-prop, by a wide margin in recent sales. ATR recently obtained third-world, gravel runway certification for its airplane.

The BBD deal includes the potential of establishing a second Q400 assembly line in Russia. The BBD deal is for 50+50 and isn’t expected to be completed until next year.

Bombardier has been making a major effort in Russia, placing used CRJ regional jets there, previous orders for the Q400 and an order for 32 CSeries. It’s also signed an agreement to explore customer support services for the Irkut MC-21 150-212 seat mainline jet.

Other MAKS news:

  • Russia’s own Sukhoi announced orders for the Superjet, with 100 going to home-grown lessor Ilyushin Finance Corp.
  • Russia’s VEB Leasing converted an MOU for 20 MC-21s to a firm order. These are for lease to UTAir and Transaero.
  • Airbus, Boeing and Embraer have yet to announce any deals.
  • This is the first air show since the Soviet Union collapsed.

Odds and Ends: Why new planes are delayed; Hazy profile; first 787-9

It’s Actually is Rocket Science: It’s a clever headline from Bloomberg News, explaining why new airplane programs are delayed.

Focusing on smaller airplanes: Steven Udvar-Hazy, one of the craftiest executives in commercial aviation, is profiled in this LA Times story. He discusses his focus on smaller aircraft for his Air Lease Corp.

Boeing 787-9: Boeing rolled out the first 787-9 and is readying pre-flight tests.

Boeing photo

More analysis on DOJ vs AA-US: Here is Part 2 of Airchive’s analysis of the Department of Justice case seeking to block the American Airlines-US Airways merger.