Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Pontifications: C Series to Airbus, 10 years since program launch, lower fuel burn
By Scott Hamilton
July 2, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus officially became the majority partner yesterday of the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.
Airbus has a 50.01% stake in the LP, with Bombardier and the province of Quebec holding minority stakes.
Things will move quickly, now that Airbus has control.
Airbus is expected to announce a rebranding of the C Series at its July 10 pre-Farnborough Air Show media briefing. An aircraft is in the process of being repainted in Airbus colors for display at the event.
Bloomberg reported in April new names were to be assigned to the CS100 and CS300, probably the A210 and A230 respectively.
Construction of the new C Series Final Assembly Line in Mobile (AL) will begin sooner than expected. This was announced at the Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile, organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal.
The changes to the A350-900ULR
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 28, 2017, © Leeham News: Airbus has published more information about the A350-900ULR Singapore Airlines will get after the summer.
The new A350-900 Airport Planning Guide from Airbus shows the A350-900ULR has a deactivated forward Cargo compartment. It’s good for the performance of the aircraft. We explain why.
Summary:
- For a ULR aircraft, the carry of cargo is an exception.
- The standard A350-900 has cargo bays with 36 LD3 positions. On the A350-900ULR only a few would be used.
- Airbus, therefore, decided to run with only one cargo hold, by it gaining performance on the ULR missions.
Vertical integration will be a ‘bumpy road’
By Laura Mueller
June 26, 2018, © Airfinance Journal: OEMs are targeting a larger piece of aftermarket revenues, but ultimately their airline customers will determine whether a push to vertical integration is the right one, Brian Prentice, a partner at Oliver Wyman told delegates at the Leeham Co/Airfinance Journal Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile today.
Airbus supplier ownership structure questioned
By Laura Mueller
June 26, 2018, © Airfinance Journal: Airbus-owned, tier-one supplier Premium Aerotec could end up with different owners due to the changing supply chain landscape, Dr David Pritchard, associate professor SUNY Empire State College, told delegates at the Leeham Co/Airfinance Journal Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile today.
“I think it will likely be spun off to private equity investors…you need to look at changes in the airframe industry. It doesn’t make sense for Airbus to own it and to own everything,” he says.
Farnborough Air Show: No NMA, unlikely A321 Plus, no Boeing-EMB tie up
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Introduction
June 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Little in the way of excitement is expected at the Farnborough Air Show next month.
There won’t be any launch of the oft-talked about Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).
Airbus continues to be coy about its response to the NMA. Studies about an A321neo Plus or Plus-Plus have been talked about almost as long as Boeing has been discussing the NMA. More recently, now there’s talk of an A321 XLR.
Summary
- Expectations for incremental airplane orders at the show should be low.
- No NMA program launch.
- Doubtful if Airbus launches A321neo enhancements.
- Airbus-C Series makes its debut—but to what end?
- Mitsubishi to showcase MRJ.
- Bombardier renews emphasis on Q400, CRJ.
- Embraer looks for order boost.
Pontifications: Growing aerospace in the US Southeast
By Scott Hamilton
June 24, 2018, © Leeham News: We’re a week away from the partnership between Airbus and the Bombardier C Series program becoming effective.
Beginning tomorrow, Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal hold the Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile (AL), where Bombardier will be a C Series Final Assembly Line.
The US Southeast will also be a competitor for the site selection of the FAL for the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) should Boeing decide, probably next year, to proceed with this new airplane.
US start-up has a lot of Moxy
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Introduction
June 21, 2018, © Leeham News: A new US airline secured delivery positions for 60 Bombardier CS300s for deliveries from 2020, according to its business plan circulating this month.
Moxy Airlines is led by David Neeleman, founder of several airlines including Morris Air (later acquired by Southwest Airlines), WestJet, JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul Airlines.
No application for certification had been filed with the US Department of Transportation as of last week.
The plan was first reported by Airfinance Journal June 11.
Summary
- Business plan says an “order” has been placed for 60 CS300s but also says “delivery positions” were procured.
- Delivery positions may be those of Republic Airways Holdings.
- Initial funding of $100m raised.
- Secondary cities, point-to-point business model.
- Likely boost for C Series plant in Mobile (AL)—but a suggestion that this fills the line for two years is off base.
VLA era is over; are 777X, A350-1000 too large?
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Introduction
June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: The era of the Very Large Aircraft appears over.
The Boeing 747 passenger airliner, while nominally still offered for sale, is in reality dead.
The Airbus A380 limps along in what may prove to be a vain hope that airport congestion will spur sales next decade.
The next level down, however, doesn’t appear very strong.
Sales of the Airbus A350-1000 stalled at 200 or less for years.
Sales of the Boeing 777X likewise stalled following program launch in 2013-2014. Although the 777X has twice as many orders as the A350-1000, fully 72% of them come from three customers, one of which is in serious financial trouble and may cancel or defer some or all its orders.
Summary
- Orders for the largest Large Twin-Aisle aircraft lag the Small and Medium Twin-Aisles.
- Big 3 in the Middle East are major customers for the 777X, A350-1000. Iran Air also buyer of -1000.
- While Big Twin languishes, small- and medium-twins remain in demand.
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Airbus-C Series closing a “positive catalyst,” say analysts
June 13, 2018, © Leeham News: The news Friday that Airbus and Bombardier concluded the deal in which Airbus takes a 50.01% ownership in the C Series program was greeted favorably by two analyst reports LNC saw.
Credit Suisse and JP Morgan each called the approval by all regulatory authorities and closing the deal—well ahead of schedule—as positive catalysts for the C Series.
A synopsis of the two research notes are below.
The partnership becomes effective July 1, just two weeks ahead of the Farnborough Air Show.
Southern state coalition bid likely for Boeing NMA assembly site
June 27, 2018, © Leeham News: A coalition of four Southern US states that joined to win the US Air Force tanker contact site location for Mobile (AL) will likely link up again to bid for the assembly line of the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft, officials of three of the states said yesterday.
The Aerospace Alliance includes Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.
An official of an economic development commission for Charleston (SC) said Charleston will also likely throw its hat into the ring.
The comments were made at the Leeham Co./Airfinance Journal Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference yesterday in Mobile. The conference continues today.
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Posted on June 27, 2018 by Scott Hamilton
air force tanker, Airbus, Airfinance Journal, Boeing, Leeham Co., Leeham News and Comment, Middle of the Market, New Midmarket Aircraft
Airbus, Airfinance Journal, Boeing, Leeham Co., New Midmarket Aircraft, NMA, Southeast Aerospace and Defence Conference