Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: 2018 starts off with a bang
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This year isn’t even a month old. If the rest of the year continues like January, commercial aviation is in for an exciting year.
The stunning news, of course, was last week’s shocking defeat for The Boeing Co. in its trade complaint over the Bombardier C Series sale to Delta Air Lines.
Nobody I know of thought Boeing would lose. It did, and by a unanimous verdict.
Then there was the order from Emirates Airline for the Airbus A380, saving the airplane from almost certain program termination.
The Boeing 787-10 was certified. The first delivery will be in March.
And Qatar Airways said it will receive the first Airbus A350-1000 next month.
Let’s look at these events.
What happened and what’s next in Boeing-Bombardier trade case?
Jan. 26, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The decision by the US International Trade Commission that Bombardier did no harm to Boeing with its sale of 75+50 CS100s to Delta Air Lines is a shocker.
The UK and Canadian governments thought Boeing would win, as it had at the US Department of Commerce. Observers and media, including LNC, were unanimous in believing Boeing would win. Bombardier did, too—already filing notices at the World Trade Organization and NAFTA to contest Commerce’s stiff tariff decisions.
With a 4-0 decision by ITC that Boeing suffered no harm, two questions arise:
What happened, and What’s next?
Chinese and Russian Widebody takes shape. Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
January 25, 2018, © Leeham Co.: In the second article about the new Chinese/Russian widebody, CR929, we looked at the size of the aircraft and its passenger capacity. The CR929 can be best described as a shorter range version of Boeing’s 787-9. We also presented the chosen technologies for the project.
Now we continue and look at the challenges the aircraft poses to the involved manufacturers. Neither of them (COMAC of China and United Aircraft of Russia) have developed and certified an aircraft like the CR929 before.
Summary:
- The Chinese and Russian widebody program has high ambitions. The structure shall be composites and the systems state of the art.
- We now go through the aircraft’s chosen technologies and review what experience base the Chinese and Russian aeronautical industry has and what challenges they will face. Read more
Boeing aims for half of 100-150 seat sector with 737-7
Jan. 24, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Dublin, Ireland: Boeing sees the 100-150 market sector as 10%-15% of the 20-year single-aisle market demand, or about 3,000-4,500 aircraft.
This compares with the 6,000-7,200 forecast by Bombardier.
Other companies fall within the 4,000 range.
Boeing doesn’t specifically segment the sector in its Current Market Outlook the 20-year forecast for regional, mainline, twin-aisle and cargo aircraft. However, Robert Michael, senior manager of product marketing for Boeing, disclosed the figure at the 20th Annual Airfinance Journal Conference Monday.
Michael said he expects the 737-7 MAX to capture about half the demand.
Airbus, Boeing list price hikes will have little affect
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Introduction
Jan. 22, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus and Boeing hiked their list prices on their airliners last week by about 2% and 4% respectively.
There is little impact for either company in the near term. Single-aisle lines for both companies are sold out until the early 2020 decade, so any price hikes today will be reflected for sales will deliveries after the current backlog clears.
The wide-body lines could have better near-in returns; the backlogs aren’t as far out as single-aisle and near-term opportunities exist.
Summary
- Initial deposits might see an uptick in cash flow.
- Will price hikes translate into higher revenue or larger discounts?
- Production rate hikes would create revenue opportunities.
Boeing raises airliner list prices 4%
Jan. 18, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Boeing quietly raised its list prices by 4.1% for its commercial airplanes, the same day Airbus did (Monday)—but without the fanfare of
an announcement, as did Airbus.
The 737-700, which has been out of favor with customers for years, now lists for $85.8m. The MAX 7, which has yet to find traction in the market, lists for $96m.
Chinese and Russian Widebody takes shape: Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
January 18, 2018, © Leeham Co.: In the first article about the Chinese/Russian widebody, the CR929, we described the route to a joint program company and the launch of the project.
We now analyze the aircraft, based on available information. With the information, it’s possible to model the aircraft in our performance model and get the first understanding of performance and efficiency.
Summary:
- The CR929-600 is closely modelled after the Boeing 787-9. The overall design and dimensions are similar.
- The major difference to the 787-9 is in cabin width, allowing comfortable nine abreast seating, and the Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW).
- The decision to design CR929-600 for a lower MTOW has restricted range to 6,500nm with the nominal cabin capacity of 280 passengers.
Airbus raises list prices about 2%; more profits or bigger discounts?
Jan. 17, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus announced a list price hike Monday of just under 2%.
The popular A321neo goes to $129.5m from $127m. The A350-900 goes to $317.4m from $311.2m, for example.
Such price hikes are common. Boeing hasn’t announced whether it will raise the list prices this year, but in the past, it’s typically done so.
Airbus continues to list the A318 and A350-800 in its price list. There hasn’t been a commercial sale of the A318 in years and Airbus skipped creating a neo version of this double-shrink airplane.
Ostensibly, Airbus continues to offer the aircraft as an Airbus Corporate Jet (ACJ), but sales of this are few and far between.
Airbus also continues to list the A330-800 despite having only one customer with a small order for the airplane.
Airbus delivers record 718 aircraft amid strong sales
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 15, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus announced record 2017 airliner deliveries of 718 aircraft today. It was the 15th consecutive year of increased production, this time with 30 aircraft over 2016. Fabrice Bregier, the Chief Operating Officer of Airbus, predicted Airbus would pass Boeing in deliveries by 2020.
The company also booked its third best year in orders, with 1,109 aircraft giving a Book-to-Bill of 1.5. The backlog is at a record 7,256 aircraft (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Summary of Airbus 2017 orders and deliveries. Source: Airbus.