Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing’s NMA decision entering final stretch, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
March 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s NMA or 797 is taking final form ahead of a decision to essentially launch the program with an Authority to Offer (ATO), widely believed to be later this year.
In the first article, we looked at the key characteristics of the design. We also looked at the engine situation in a couple of articles.
Now we round up the series with analyzing the potential economics of the aircraft.
Figure 1. The first sketch of the smaller 797-6X with 224 seats. Source: JonOstrower.com
Summary:
- The projected 797 would have competitive Cash Operating Costs compared with a modern Single Aisle aircraft like the Airbus A321LR.
- The challenge is the capital costs. The A320/A321 and Boeing’s 737 MAX models are produced in numbers passing 10,000. An NMA would be successful if produced in 1,000 units. This leads to higher production costs for the numerically smaller series.
- The focus from Boeing is therefore on lowering Production costs and on finding Services revenue which can help the 797 business case.
In new blow, Boeing defeats Airbus at American, sources say; AA says ‘no decision yet’
Boeing 787. Photo via Google images.
March 23, 2018, © Leeham News: In a new, albeit not unexpected, blow to Airbus, Boeing won a hotly contest competition at American Airlines between the A330neo and the 787, two sources say.
Bloomberg News reported Airbus lost the deal, earlier today.
LNC confirmed the decision with two sources. But Derek Kerr, EVP and CFO of American, told LNC no decision has been made, but an announcement could be coming by the first quarter earnings call if not before.
The competition originated with American’s long-publicized ambivalence over the legacy Airbus A350-900 order placed by US Airways long before the latter acquired American, a 787 customer of long-standing. With this deal, American will cancel the A350 order for 22 airplanes.
Focus on NMA engines: all OEMs vying for Boeing’s approval
Subscription Required
Now open to all readers.
Introduction
March 22, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As Boeing enters the final stretch whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, aka 797) market focus should shift to the 
engines more than the airframe and even the market demand.
It all comes down to this: no engines, no plane.
Monday’s post outlined some of the issues to consider.
But there are larger implications as well.
Summary
- Market sources are tossing about various scenarios about the future GE Aviation and CFM.
- Rolls-Royce won’t have its Trent 1000 problems fixed until 2021 or 2022, at great cost.
- Pratt & Whitney won’t have its Geared Turbo Fan final PIP packages for its problems sorted out until around 2021.
- Resources—both financial and with engineering—are stretched now.
- Sequencing current engine problems, and in the case, GE’s GE9X, are a factor, in the eyes of some.
Airbus launches the longest range widebody in the below 300 seat market
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 20, 2018, ©. Leeham News, Toulouse: Airbus launched the 251t version of the A330neo in Toulouse today. The new weight variant increases the range of the A330-800 and A330-900, making the A330-800 the longest range airliner in the 250- to 300-seat segment.
Airbus also presented an update on the progress of the A330neo program, now in the middle of flight tests.
Figure 1. A330neo changes from the A330ceo. Source: Airbus.
NMA focus needs to be on engines
Subscription Required
Now open to all readers
Introduction
March 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As the market awaits a decision by Boeing whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), focus has been on the aircraft’s definition and market demand.
It should be on the engines.
It doesn’t matter whether Boeing designs a fabulous airplane that’s the next best thing to sliced bread. What matters is whether the engines will be ready in time for Boeing’s suggested entry-into-service and if they are, whether they will be reliable out of the box.
The recent track record isn’t all that encouraging. Neither is Boeing’s preferred timing.
Summary
- CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce each had problems with their new engines. All continue.
- The Boeing NMA requires brand new engines, not derivatives.
- Engine development and certification within the Boeing preferred timeline is sporty at best.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft drag reduction, Part 21
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 16, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner, we looked at the drag of an airliner during cruise. We could see the thrust required to counter the drag in the thin air of 37,000 feet was low, about 4,000lbf per engine.
Now we continue with the drag created by the aircraft during descent and landing.
Figure 1. Drag of an aircraft at different airspeeds. Source: Leeham Co.
China tariffs on Boeing unlikely
Analysis
March 14, 2018 © Leeham News: Boeing is unlikely to face retaliatory tariffs from China following President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on China’s steel industry.
LNC believes China’s own self-interest for its airline, leasing and aerospace industry would make imposing tariffs on Boeing counter-productive.
Several media reports this week raise the prospect of China retaliating against Boeing, including these at CNBC and The New York Times. Boeing stock is off $10 or 3% in mid-day trading.
Pratt & Whitney’s Indian trouble
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 14, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) grounded Airbus A320neos equipped with Pratt & Whitney GTF engines with faulty compressor seals Monday.
Affected are eight A320neos of Indigo airlines and three A320neos of GoAir. The Indian groundings are unusual as they go beyond the directives of EASA and FAA for the problem.
Airbus, Boeing respond differently to engine problems
March 14, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus and Boeing have engine issues on in-service airplanes, but customers point to very different responses to getting their 
grounded airplanes back in the air.
Airbus’ problems with A320neos powered by Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engines have been making headlines almost since introduction in late 2016.
Less well publicized, but nevertheless by now well-known within the industry, has been Boeing’s 787 powered by Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines.
Embraer thinks a business case can be made for turboprop, but nothing soon
Subscription Required
Introduction
March 12, 2018 © Leeham Co.: Embraer isn’t planning any new airplane any time soon, but studies about a turboprop and an electric airplane are underway.
One concept of the Embraer turboprop under study.
The current focus is on introducing the Ejet-E2 into service, however. The E190-E2 goes into service next month. The E195-E2 follows next year and the E175-E2 in 2021.
Studies about the electric plane, with 50 passengers or less, perhaps are more esoteric than pending reality. Airbus and Boeing also are studying this concept.
The prospect of a turboprop may be more rooted in reality, however.
Summary
- Current turboprop designs are aging.
- Bombardier’s exit from the turboprop market is considered likely.
- Tough business case seen working with Bombardier exit.
- The ATR is too small for some airlines.