Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Embraer gears up for E2 delivery; a look at the 100-150 seat sector demand
March 31, 2018 © Leeham News: The first Embraer E2 jet will be delivered April 4, to Norway’s Wideroe Airlines.
The E190-E2 seats 114 passengers in one-class, 29-inch pitch and 106 at 31-inch pitch, putting it at the low end of the 100-150 seat sector that is often maligned as a Bermuda Triangle for airplanes of this size.
Wideroe of Norway takes delivery of the firzst Embraer 190-E2 April 4. Photo: Embraer
The E190-E2 competes with the Bombardier CS100, a 110-seat airplane in one-class. Neither Airbus nor Boeing have a competing product. Each offers a larger airplane in the 125-150 sector, the A319neo and 737-7 MAX respectively. Embraer and Bombardier offer the E195-E2 and CS300 in this sub-sector.
Is Airbus’ A330-800 the longest range widebody under 300 seats?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 29, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 787-9 has opened new ultra-long routes such as Qantas’ first flight from Perth in Australia to London Heathrow last weekend (a 7,900nm, 17-hours flight). The 787-9 has been the undisputed long-haul star under 300 seats, with Airbus A350-900ULR underbidding the Boeing 777-200LR’s fuel burn for over 300 seats ultra-long haul flying.
But the competition for below 300 seat ULR alternatives will change in two years. Airbus A330-800 is then available in its 251t version. It will fly longer than the 787-9, according to Airbus.
The range of 7,635nm given by Boeing for the 787-9 and 8,150nm by Airbus for the A330-800 is not using the same seating and fuel reserve rules. We use our performance model to weed out the differences, to make an apples-to-apples comparison of the 787-9 and A330-800 as ULR aircraft.
Summary:
- The choice between the 787-9 or A330-800 for Ultra Long-haul Routes (ULR) will depend on the passenger loads which can be expected.
- For thin routes, the A330-800 will be the cheaper aircraft to operate.
- It will also fly longer on thin routes, as its large tanks mean passenger capacity can be traded for more fuel further than for a 787-9.
- When the 787-9 can be filled, it’s the choice with the better seat-mile cost, as it should; it’s the larger aircraft, spreading fixed costs over more paying passengers.
Is Long-Haul LCC viable?
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 28, 2018, © Leeham News.: Robert L. Crandall, the former CEO of American Airlines, questioned the viability of Long-Haul LCC (LH-LCC) in a discussion with LNC two weeks ago.
Given the limited network of a dedicated Long-Haul LCC like Norwegian Air Shuttle (Norwegian) or WOW air, the legacy airlines can spare as much capacity as is needed to block the LH-LCCs from gaining traction on attractive city pairs. “At some stage, it’s going to be who’s going to be prepared to lose the most money,” was Crandall’s verdict.
We shall examine the LH-LCC model and its chances in a series of articles. Here some first observations.
Supply chain stress, number of variants challenge 737 production rate hike
March 27, 2018, © Leeham News: Current production rates and complexity in the transition between the Boeing 737 NG and 737 MAX is straining the supply chain 
feeding Spirit Aerosystems, its CEO told a JP Morgan conference March 14.
The supply chain stress makes it challenging to increase production rates. Spirit, which builds the 737 fuselage for Boeing, deployed SWAT teams to key suppliers that are struggling.
Tom Gentile, Spirit’s CEO, did not name the suppliers.
Boeing is going to a production rate of 52/mo this year and 57/mo next year. The company is studying rate hikes up to 70/mo.
The supply chain and production will be among the topics at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27 in Mobile (AL).
Pontifications: An old pro thinks long-haul LCC model is about who loses the most money
By Scott Hamilton
March 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Long-haul, low-cost carriers are likely here to stay but the impact will be limited.
This is the conclusion of Robert L. Crandall, former CEO of American Airlines, who faced the USA’s first ultra-low-cost carrier and won.
Crandall, 82, retired from American in 1998, He faced the emerging low-cost carriers in the US, all based in large part on the Southwest Airlines
Robert Crandall. Photo via Google images.
business model.
Despite painful skirmishes and in some cases, all-out wars, Crandall navigated American through the turbulent skies, making American the largest US airline and seeing nearly all of the upstarts cease operations.
PeoplExpress was the USA’s first ultra-low-cost carrier. Founded in 1981, over-expansion and aggressive response by the US majors—led in large part by Crandall’s strategy—PE collapsed in 1987. It merged into Continental Airlines, bankrupt in all but name.
Boeing’s NMA decision entering final stretch, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
March 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s NMA or 797 is taking final form ahead of a decision to essentially launch the program with an Authority to Offer (ATO), widely believed to be later this year.
In the first article, we looked at the key characteristics of the design. We also looked at the engine situation in a couple of articles.
Now we round up the series with analyzing the potential economics of the aircraft.
Figure 1. The first sketch of the smaller 797-6X with 224 seats. Source: JonOstrower.com
Summary:
- The projected 797 would have competitive Cash Operating Costs compared with a modern Single Aisle aircraft like the Airbus A321LR.
- The challenge is the capital costs. The A320/A321 and Boeing’s 737 MAX models are produced in numbers passing 10,000. An NMA would be successful if produced in 1,000 units. This leads to higher production costs for the numerically smaller series.
- The focus from Boeing is therefore on lowering Production costs and on finding Services revenue which can help the 797 business case.
GE/CFM in “lockstep” with Boeing on NMA
David Joyce
March 22, 2018, © Leeham News: GE Aviation/CFM International are in “lockstep” with Boeing for development of an engine for the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), the CEO of GE Aviation told a JP Morgan Aviation conference last week.
David Joyce acknowledged that there are technical issues and production delays for the new CFM LEAP 1A and 1B that power the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families respectively. Production is running up to six weeks late, but should be caught up by the end of this year, he said.
Technical issues, while affecting at least 100 engines, nevertheless are far less of an issue than those plaguing rival Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan.
Lion Air takes delivery of Boeing’s first 737-9 MAX
Lion Air took delivery today of the first Boeing 737-9 MAX that will go into revenue service. Leeham News photo.
March 21, 2018, © Leeham News: Lion Air, the low-cost carrier with several affiliates throughout Asia, took delivery of the first Boeing 737-9 MAX today at Boeing Field in Seattle.
Thai Lion will operate the airplane.
Lion Air was the launch customer of the Boeing 737-900ER and it is a launch customer of the 737-9. The airline has more than 100 737-900ERs and more than 80 737-800s. It ordered 201 737 MAX 8/9s and 50 more 737-10 MAXes.
Neither Lion Air nor Boeing have specified how many MAXes are the 8 or 9 models. If the MAX order is pro-rated proportionally with the NG orders, about 110 may be destined to be the 9 MAX.
This should bring the MAX 9 order book to about 360. United Airlines canceled an order for 100 9 MAXes in favor of the 10 MAX when this program was launched at the Paris Air Show last year.
Airbus launches the longest range widebody in the below 300 seat market
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 20, 2018, ©. Leeham News, Toulouse: Airbus launched the 251t version of the A330neo in Toulouse today. The new weight variant increases the range of the A330-800 and A330-900, making the A330-800 the longest range airliner in the 250- to 300-seat segment.
Airbus also presented an update on the progress of the A330neo program, now in the middle of flight tests.
Figure 1. A330neo changes from the A330ceo. Source: Airbus.
Production transformation key to Boeing NMA
March 20, 2018, © Leeham News: As Boeing builds the business case for the New Midrange Airplane (NMA, or 797), dozens of major factors come into play, along with the hundreds or thousands of smaller one.
The market demand, of course, is a well-known business case element.
So is price to the customer, the design and capabilities of the airplane, the engines and the technology of them, whether there will be a sole- or dual-source engine, where the airplane will be assembled and how it will be produced.
- .Production transformation is the focus of the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27, organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal.
One Boeing official told LNC that the 797 is as much about production as it is everything else. This goes to cost and cost goes to pricing.
Automation, robotics, digital design, 3D printing and additive manufacturing are key to producing the 797. Many elements are already in place on other Boeing programs, most described in the media already.
One key supplier is Dassault Systemes.