Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing-Embraer venture in response to Airbus-Bombardier? Don’t count on it
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Introduction
Oct. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: With the tie-up announced last Monday between Airbus and Bombardier for the CSeries, speculation immediately turned to whether Boeing and Embraer will join forces in some fashion in response.
The speculation is natural. Boeing and Embraer have had several commercial agreements, mostly on the defense side but also in eco-research. But as yet, there hasn’t been a tie-up involving the successful E-Jet program.
Embraer E195-E2.
Don’t look for anything soon that would be a meaningful response to the Airbus-CSeries deal.
Summary
- Boeing needs a response in the 125-150 seat sector in which the 737-7 MAX languishes and with which the CS300 competes.
- Boeing has no product offering in the 100-125 seat sector. Embraer doesn’t need Boeing’s help here. The E175-E1 continues to sell and it meets US Scope Clauses.
- The Embraer E2 program’s first delivery is April next year.
- Embraer isn’t about to proceed with a new airplane program in the 100-150 seat sector, which is Boeing’s product gap.
Pontifications: Boeing’s focus on going to Mars
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: New Orleans: Going to Mars is a daunting task, says John Shannon, a Boeing vice president and program manager of the SLS
John Shannon of Boeing. Photo via Google images.
program.
But it’s one of the greatest and most exciting challenges of today’s science community.
In a speech before the annual conference of the Aerospace Alliance Oct. 12 in New Orleans, Shannon used illustrations to explain the challenges of going to Mars. Some of the art he used are contained in this presentation (NASA Space Launch System). Boeing did not make its presentation available.
The SLS, or Space Launch System, is larger than the Saturn 5 rocket used in the Apollo astronaut and Skylab space programs in the 1960s and 1970s. It was used to send Apollo to the moon and it was the only rocket capable of launching beyond low earth orbit.
Boeing is building the rocket, which will be capable of sending supplies to Mars, followed by astronauts.
Boeing ponders restart of 767-300ER passenger line
Oct. 19, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing is nearing a decision whether to restart the 767-300ER passenger line, LNC has learned.
The company is in discussions for 50-60 aircraft, market intelligence indicates.
Boeing declined comment, saying it does not discuss conversations with customers.
United Airlines Boeing 767-300ER. Photo via Google images
But sources indicate that the prospect of restarting the 767-300ER passenger line could serve as interim lift until the prospective entry-into-service of the Boeing New Midrange Aircraft, now commonly called the 797, for the Middle of the Market sector.
LNC on Aug. 14 speculated that relaunching the 767-300ER could be a good tactical move on Boeing’s part.
Economics of CS300 versus A319neo and 737 MAX 7
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 18, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We looked at what Airbus got when it acquired Bombardier’s CSeries yesterday. Now we continue the analysis by looking at the economics of Bombardier’s CS300 versus Airbus A319neo and Boeing 737 MAX 7.
The CS300 has entered service and A319neo is flying in tests. The 737 MAX 7 will fly next year, for a service entry 2019.
We use our aircraft performance model to compare the aircraft.
Summary:
- The A319neo has 126 seats in our normalized domestic cabin, the CS300 132 seats and the 737 MAX 7 138 seats.
- The CSeries is more fuel efficient, both on a trip basis and on a per seat basis, than the smaller A319neo and the larger 737 MAX 7.
- On a total cost basis, the CS300 is the lower cost aircraft (as long as normal net pricing prevails, it’s best to add). Read more
From war to partner: Airbus and the CSeries
John Leahy
Oct. 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It was the annual media day in 2010 that Airbus declared war on the Bombardier CSeries.
Lufthansa Group in 2009 was the launch customer of the CSeries with an order for 30 CS100s and options for 30 more.
Bombardier had won a major order from Republic Airways Holdings, which then owned Frontier Airlines, an exclusive A319/320 operator. Republic ordered 40 CS300s and optioned 40 more. It was this order that spurred Airbus’ wrath. It was this order that would push Airbus into launching the re-engined A320neo family.
John Leahy, Airbus COO-customers, and Tom Williams, then EVP of programs, declared to the assembled international media that Airbus would aggressively compete against Bombardier.
Now, seven years later, Airbus and Bombardier are partners.
What has Airbus got in the CSeries?
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 18, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier and Airbus changed the airliner landscape yesterday. Analysts say it’s the largest industry change since Boeing bought McDonnell Douglas in 1997.
So, what has Airbus bought for no money? A me-too, or a world-beater?
Assessing the Airbus-Bombardier deal
Oct. 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Airbus-Bombardier transaction announced yesterday has implications well beyond the United States, which has been much of the focus of analysis post-announcement.
The analysis focused on the US is natural, given the Boeing trade complaint involving the CSeries sale to Delta Air Lines.
But it’s important to step back to see what this means for CSeries.
Airbus-Bombardier CSeries deal means no tariffs on US-assembled aircraft, says CEO
Oct. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The stunning Airbus-Bombardier partnership for the CSeries program guarantees the future of the new airplane, kills off the A319 and thrusts a big stick up Boeing’s tailpipe.
Boeing won big victories in its trade complaint filed with the US government, winning 300% tariffs on every CSeries imported into the US, throwing into doubt a big deal with Delta Air Lines for up to 125 aircraft.
Trump decertifies Iran nuke deal, throws Airbus, Boeing orders in doubt
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Introduction
Oct. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: President Donald Trump announced Friday he will decertify the Iran nuclear deal, throwing into doubt a host of related commercial deals, including huge aircraft orders.
Iran Air Airbus A330. Photo via Google.
Trump hasn’t gone so far as to withdraw from the pact, but he still threatens to do so unless Congress makes changes he wants.
Here in the US, focus is, of course, on the commitment by Iran for Boeing aircraft—none of which are firm contracts, but “commitments” to order.
Of less focus here, if any, is on the outstanding orders placed by Iran for Airbus and ATR aircraft, which are subject to US licensing.
Summary
- 30 Boeing 777s, including 15 Classics are at stake.
- 50 Boeing 737 MAXes to Iran Air and 30 to Iran Asesman are also at stake.
- ATR has 11 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2018.
- Airbus sold 114 A320s/321s, A330s and A350s to Iran Air. A few white tails already have been delivered.