Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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CFM LEAP-1B enters flight testing
May 7, 2015: The CFM LEAP-1B has entered flight testing on GE’s company-owned Boeing 747. The engine is for the Boeing 737 MAX. Aviation Week has a story and one section in particular caught our eye, as it relates to the controversy over the test results of fuel consumption.
“When we build development engines they are heavily instrumented and built to accomplish extreme test conditions and durability,” he explains. “They are intentionally deteriorated and have open clearances because they are built for the ‘corner point’ in the test effort. We do pre-test predictions and we are within 0.5% of every one, so we are right on track. We fully expect to be right on our commitment as we enter into service.”
Aspire Aviation reported last month that the LEAP-1B was coming up 4%-5% short, a huge number that Boeing immediately denied; CFM declined comment at the time. Airline Economics later reported the same figure. Our information from our sources was conflicting: we were told by one that the shortfall was 2%, a figure we had been hearing for some time and which was characterized as not unusual at this stage; and one other that reported the 4%-5% figure. There it sat. We did a “what-if” analysis of the effect on the MAX at the 2% and 4% numbers.
Last week, we received a clarifying explanation that appears to track with the Aviation Week article and the excerpt above. We were told that the 4%-5% number came from a test stand test in which the tolerances of the engine were much looser than the optimal performance engine. The clearances, we were told, were not to specification–and the result was the 4%-5%.
Airbus A350 start stretching its wings
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 6, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Qatar Airways, as the first operator of the Airbus A350, now has four months of experience of the new twin aisle aircraft. As we have described in Bjorn’s Corner two weeks ago, the introduction has gone well, without major incidents.
Qatar Airways’ A350 stretching its wings. Source: Airbus.
The first destination was Doha-Frankfurt, to be followed by Doha-Singapore on June 1. Both destinations are mid-range, with flying times of six to eight hours. These can be seen as introductory rotations, close to Qatar’s base should replacement aircraft or maintenance actions be needed.
With the first period in the bag, Qatar now feels confident enough to announce how they will take the A350 to its true job types. Here the relevant parts of what Qatar Airways announced Tuesday this week:
“Increasing passenger demand to America’s largest city and financial centre, New York, has prompted Qatar Airways to add a second daily service to the city from 1st March 2016. Qatar Airways has served the city daily since the initial route launch in 2007. The second daily service to New York’s JFK will be operated by the Airbus A350 XWB aircraft providing passengers an opportunity to experience both the Boeing B777 and the A350 aircraft types on the route.
“ From 16th March, 2016, the airline will launch daily flights to Boston, the capital and largest city of Massachusetts, and will operate its latest flagship A350 XWB in a two-class configuration with 36 Business Class seats in a 1-2-1 configuration, featuring an 80” fully flat bed and 17” HD in-flight entertainment screen.”
This is more challenging work for an A350 and we will therefore take a first look into what Qatar can expect in terms of overall aircraft performance on such destinations come spring next year. Read more
Boeing 777 production gap remains challenging
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Introduction
May 5, 2015: c. Leeham Co. The order for 10 Boeing 777-300ERs last month by United Airlines was a welcome addition to the backlog for the Classic line, but it remains a struggle for Boeing to obtain enough orders, or convert options and LOIs, to bridge the production gap to the entry-into-service for the 777-9, currently planned for 1H2020.
Boeing would like to advance the EIS to late 2019, but this may be challenging.
Boeing currently has a backlog of 271 Classic 777s (including the UA order). Through the end of 2019, Boeing needs to deliver 466 Classics if it is to maintain the current production rate of 100 per year. Boeing is sold out this year, largely sold out next year, half sold out in 2017 and some delivery slots are taken up in 2018, according to CEO Jim McNerney.
But the need for more Classic sales doesn’t end on 12/31/19 because of the normal production cut-over and ramp-up of a new airplane type.
Summary
- Through 2019 Boeing needs to sell and/or convert options for 195 777 Classics, or an average of 43 per year from May 1.
- “Feathering” in production from the Classic to the 777X increases the challenge.
- Production rate cut remains inevitable, in our estimation.
The higher level game
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 4, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The other day one of our readers asked something along the lines, “now that Airbus has the A320neo 20% more efficient than today’s A320, how shall Boeing’s 737 MAX fair in the market? It is only 15% more effective and there are question marks around the LEAP-1B?”
This made me realize that marketing works. I decided to write about the phenomenon that the OEMs seem to find further improvements all the time and how these continually higher improvements seem to work beyond the physical laws as we know them.
The answer boils down to the fact that there is more than meets the eye around how much fuel an aircraft uses to transport people from A to B. In fact, the OEMs’ marketing departments excel within the complexity of the task and can always find a way to say “my mousetrap has now improved another x% and is therefore Y% better than yours”.
To cut through these marketing moves one need a bit of background and first grade math. Let’s see how they do it. Read more
Pontifications: the A380, Airbus and Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
May 4, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Of all the things we write about, nothing stirs responses and readership than news–of any kind–about the Airbus A380.
Last week I wrote about Malaysia Airlines putting a large number of its Airbus and Boeing wide-bodies for sale or lease. MASCargo’s entire fleet of Boeing 747-400s and Airbus A330Fs is on the chopping block. Some Boeing 777-200ERs are, too. The six A380s (all of those in the MAS fleet) are also being offered for sale or lease.
Holy crap. This news headlined not only international press but sent the social media into a frenzy. Within 12 hours it had become our second most read story of 2015. In less than 36 hours, it became our top story of the year so far.
I also wrote last week about the 10 year anniversary of the A380. It was a mixed review: the plane is a technological success, if by now a bit dated, but sales continue to be poor. I talked about the prospect of an A380neo and how Boeing is rooting for Airbus to proceed, sucking up money and resources in the process. I wrote about the urban legend that Boeing tricked Airbus into launching the A380 program as a way to divert money and resources.
And then I suggested that Boeing’s own failed strategy, ineptitude and arrogance prevented the company from taking advantage of Airbus’ focus on the A380.
CNN.com had this on its home page Saturday. Even though there are more than 250 Boeing 787s in service, the strategic industrial and early design blunders continue to dog the airplane.
You’d have thunk I dropped a skunk at a lawn party.
One reader suggested I was part of the Airbus PR department or Airbus’ John Leahy ghosted the article. Never mind that the day before I wrote a strong defense of the Boeing 787 and suggestions that “everyone” was deferring the 787; and gave an equally strong defense of the 787 in TheStreet.com. Perhaps Boeing’s Randy Tinseth ghosted my article and impersonated me to The Street.
I didn’t go into detail in my article about Boeing’s “failed strategy, ineptitude and arrogance” because I thought after all these years, these were pretty obvious. Apparently not. So I’ll hit some highlights. Read more
Paris Air Show Preview: Airbus
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Introduction
May 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show is June 15-19 for the trade/industrial portion. Beginning this week, Leeham News and Comment will provide our 
Market Assessment and insight about what to expect. We begin this weekly exercise by looking at Airbus. Future posts will look at Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer and other major players at the PAS.
Summary
- First, an overarching look at what to expect;
- What to expect for Airbus at the show;
- The future of the A380neo;
- Outlook for the A330ceo/neo; and
- Outlook for the A321LR.
Bjorn’s Corner: Airbus’ and Boeing’s first quarter
By Bjorn Fehrm
30 April 2015, C. Leeham Co: Airbus Group presented their first quarter results today Thursday, a week after Boeing presented theirs. It is a good occasion to look at how these companies performed. We will focus on commercial aircraft for Airbus and compare its performance with Boeing’s commercial aircraft and then comment on other Airbus activities more summarily.
In a later article we will look at Embraer, who also published their results Thursday, and compare with Bombardier’s first quarter which they announce on May 7th. Read more
Malaysia Airlines fleet restructuring
April 30, 2015: Malaysia Airlines is offering for sale or lease all six of its Airbus A380s, its two Boeing 747-400Fs and four Airbus A330-200Fs and four Boeing 777-200ERs as it seeks to restructure following a disastrous 2014.
MAS lost two 777s last year: MH370, the flight that disappeared and still hasn’t been found; and MH17, the flight that was shot down over Ukraine.
Elimination of the freighters wipes out MASCargo.
MAS, the passenger operation, has six A380s, 15 A330-300s, 57 Boeing 737-800s with 14 on order and 10 options and 13 777-200ERs, according to Wikipedia. Read more
Fundamentals of airliner performance; Part 7, the wing.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 28, 2015, c. Leeham Co. In our articles where we present an analysis of different airliners, we use a number of terms like aspect ratio, wetted area, etc and we assume that the reader understands what these terms mean and how they are defined. As will be clear from the description below, this is asking for a lot. Several terms which seem straightforward have a more complicated background and definition than what meets the eye.
It is, therefore, high time that we explain how these terms are defined and why we use them in the form they have. It might seem pretty clear what a simple term like wing area is. It should be pretty straightforward what one means and how this is measured, shouldn’t it? Nothing could be further from the truth. It does not describe the area of the wing (only), and there are several definitions of the term and different principles on how these are measured.
So let’s get started, and let’s demystify these terms and understand how they are used and why. We will start with the wing as this has the most terms that need to be explained. We will only touch on the most important definitions, those that we refer to all the time. For a complete understanding of the nomenclature of a modern airliner wing, there are several good sites on the internet and books on the subject. Read more
A380, 10 years later
April 28, 2015: Airbus is celebrating 10 years of its A380 super jumbo.
Just about everybody else is taking pot shots at it.
There’s little doubt the airplane is a masterful achievement. But production miscues delayed the airplane by two years, the market moved on it and when it was envisioned in the late 1990s, the Boeing 777-9 wasn’t.
So 10 years after entry-into-service, and a mere 15 after the program was launched, Airbus faces a crossroads: does it re-engine the airplane on an iffy business case or can it come up with enough Performance Improvement Packages for the airframe and with the engine makers chipping in to give it new life until the market grows into the airplane–if it ever does, say detractors.
Some at Boeing we talked with are rooting for Airbus to take the neo plunge. Read more