Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 2025 annual safety report due this month May 20, 2025
- FAA’s data of accident, incidents, often not shared May 19, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 22. May 16, 2025
- Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part I May 15, 2025
- The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight May 12, 2025
Pontifications: A350 launch aid, Emirates and the A380, Bombardier and U-Turn Al
By Scott Hamilton
March 5, 2015: A350 Launch Aid: Boeing and the US Trade Representative got in a big twist around 2006 when Airbus said it would accept more than $1bn in launch aid from Germany for the A350. At that time, the US and European Union had recently launched the international trade complaints before the World Trade Organization (WTO), but the A350 came after the complaint was filed and the WTO refused the US request to add it to the proceedings.
Germany, in a political snit, later said it would withhold part of the launch aid because Airbus hadn’t promised the number of jobs in connection with the program to Germany that politicians wanted.
Production rates on single-aisles keep going up, up
Figure 1. Airbus and Boeing production rates for the A320 and 737 lines are going up as announced rates and rates under consideration go to lofty levels. Click on image to enlarge.
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Introduction
March 3, 2015: c. Leeham Co. Production rates for single aisle airplanes continue to go up for the Big Two, following the Airbus announcement last week that the A320 rates will go to 50/mo in 2017 and officials are considering going to more than 60/mo.
We’ve previously reported that Airbus already has notified the supply chain to be prepared to go to 54/mo in 2018.
Rate 50 will propel Airbus ahead of Boeing, which will briefly be ahead of Airbus when the 737 production rate goes to 47/mo next year, compared with the Airbus plan to take A320 rates to 46/mo next year. The two companies are at parity this year. (Figure 1.)
Summary
- Bombardier, COMAC and Irkut add to supply by 2020, but impact will be minimal.
- No 747-8 deliveries scheduled in 2018. We see program termination coming very soon.
- A330ceo production rate reduced, higher rate for 787 than announced.
- We see short-term Airbus advantage coming in wide-body production rates as A350 ramps up. We stick with our call that 777 Classic rates have to come down.
- We reduce A380 production rates in our estimates.
Exclusive: CSeries performance better than guarantees, “favorable” to brochure; range better than advertised
Rob Dewar, program head of the Bombardier CSeries.
March 3, 2015: c. Leeham Co. Flight test results for the Bombardier CSeries show that the economics of the airplane not only are meeting the economic and performance guarantees, they are “favorable” to the marketing brochures that have promised 15% better operating costs and 20% better fuel burn than today’s in-production Airbus A319s and Boeing 737-700s, Leeham News and Comment confirmed.
Three sources told us the CSeries flight tests were turning in better-than-guarantee results. Rob Dewer, vice president and general manager, CSeries Program, confirmed the information today in an exclusive interview.
CEO Interview: ATR chiefs says no 90-seater without Airbus support
ATR CEO Patrick de Castelbajac. Source: ATR.
March 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co: ATR, the turbo-prop OEM 50% owned by Airbus and 50% by Finmeccanica, wants to develop a new airplane to replace the venerable ATR 42/72 series that entered service in 1985 and 1989 respectively..
Airbus, as half owner, has the power to block the plan–and it has, saying that because ATR has 85%-90% of the market, a new airplane isn’t needed.
Despite this huge market share, ATR CEO Patrick de Castelbajac says ATR doesn’t “own” the market. The need for a larger, 90-seat turbo-prop mirrors an industry trend toward up-gauging and the ATR 72 has been stretched probably as far as it can go, says de Castelbajac.
But if Airbus isn’t on board, development of a new airplane isn’t possible, he says.
CS300 first flight
The first flight of the Bombardier CS300 occurred Feb. 27, 2015. The five hour flight was in cold but clear weather, with the moon joining the event. Source: Sylvain Faust in a Special to Leeham News. Click on image to enlarge.
The first flight of the Bombardier CS300, the 149-160 version of the new generation aircraft, came off without a hitch on Feb. 27. The flight lasted five hours.
The CS300 is a direct challenge to the Airbus A319ceo/neo and Boeing 737-700/7 and comfortably outsells the A319neo and 737-7. The economics of the CS300 are substantially better than the Airbus or Boeing, according to Bombardier claims and validated by our analysis.
This CS300 is Flight Test Vehicle 7 (FTV 7) but actually precedes FTV 5 and FTV 6 into the BBD test fleet.
Odds and Ends: CS300 first flight delayed; PW GTF; Boeing enters MidEast fray
Baby, it’s cold out there! Bombardier delayed the first flight of its CSeries due to the cold. Click on image to enlarge. Source: Sylvain Faust.
CS300 first flight delayed: When Bombardier says it’s too cold for the CS300 first flight, you know it’s cold up in Montreal. It’s -21C at Mirabel (-6F) and partly cloudy, but that was too cold for the guests, according to our man on the scene, Sylvain Faust. Canadians know how to dress for this cold but visitors don’t. A rescheduled time hasn’t been definitively announced.
Bombardier doesn’t have an open-faced tent and outdoor heaters set up, according to Faust.
PW GTF: Flight Global has a report about Pratt & Whitney’s “new aggressiveness” in competing with CFM International in the battle of the Pure Power Geared Turbo Fan vs the LEAP-1A. These engines power the Airbus A320neo family.
Boeing enters MidEast fray: American, Delta and United airlines want Open Skies revisited in order to curb competition by the Big Three Middle Eastern carriers. Boeing, FedEx and JetBlue, have entered the fray, opposing any such action. Here is the story.
CS300 first flight Wednesday, direct challenge to 737-7 and A319neo
Feb. 25, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Bombardier’s direct challenge to the Big Two duopoly in the 125-149 seat sector is scheduled for its first flight Wednesday, weather and gremlins permitting.
Bombardier photo.
The CS300, challenger to the A319neo and 737-7, is to take to the skies as Bombardier’s flight testing program enters the final stretch. BBD still claims it will deliver the first CS100 by the end of this year, though most analysts (and we) believe it will slip into 1Q next year.
The CS300, 135 seats in two classes and 149 in standard one class, matches the 31-inch pitch configurations of the “baby” Airbus and Boeing products.
Bombardier claims large operating economic advantages over these competitors. Our analysis shows economics probably a bit closer than Bombardier would like.