Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
How good is a MAX 7X and why would it replace the original? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 23, 2016, ©. Leeham Co:In Part 1 to Part 3 of this article series,we looked into the reasons behind that Boeing is considering changing the 737-7 MAX into a slightly larger 737-7X.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 737 MAX 7. Source: Boeing.
When an aircraft gets larger, its operating costs increase, everything else being equal. At the same time, it can take more passengers. This will increase the aircraft’s revenue generating capability, assuming the network can generate the traffic level needed.
To understand the difference in revenue capability for the 7 and 7X we will now develop their Direct Operating Cost (DOC) and compare these with the revenue generation capability of the aircraft. This gives the margin capability and one can establish where the cross over point would be between 737-7 and 7X with respect to margin for the airline.
Summary
- We develop the Direct Operating Costs (DOC) for the 737-7 and -7X.
- We also develop the revenue streams of the aircraft over typical missions.
- When compared, the margin of the aircraft will result and it will be possible to define the extra passenger count needed for the 7X to deliver the same margin as the presently defined 7 MAX.
- We then can establish the revenue upside potential for a 737-7X over the 7.
How good is a MAX 7X and why would it replace the original? Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 16, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 1 and Part 2 of the article series we have described the rational for Boeing to change the definition of the 737-7 MAX into something that has the working name of 737-7X. This is a 737-7 variant that is based on a shortened 737-8.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 737 MAX 7. Source: Boeing
In the previous articles we defined a probable size for such a cut down 737-8. The size is determined by economical criteria where the second most dominant cost in an airlines operation, the crewing cost, is the sizing criteria. These costs have a step increase if the aircraft’s seating go beyond 150 seats.
We sized the 737-7X cabin size (and therefore fuselage length) to avoid such cost increases. In this article, we will compare the resulting main data for a 7X to the original 7 and compare their fuel efficiencies.
Summary
- A 737-7X will be a larger and heavier aircraft than the original MAX 7.
- As such it will consume more fuel per mission; its aircraft fuel mile costs will be higher.
- The key comparison for an airline is the fuel consumption per seat mile for its missions. It would be vital that this is lower for a 7X than the presently defined 7.
- We check if this is the case with our proprietary performance model.
How good is a MAX 7X and why would it replace the original? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 16, 2016, ©. Leeham Co:In Part 1 we described the driving forces behind Boeing’s investigations into changing the definition of the 737 MAX 7.
There are good reasons to make the -7 model larger. The passenger market is moving the average size of the cabins upwards by about 2-3 seats per year. Boeing therefore made the middle model, the -800 and later the MAX 8 larger than the 737-400. It went from 146 seats in two classes to 162 seats.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 737 MAX 7. Source: Boeing
But the -700 and therefore the MAX 7 stayed the same size as the predecessor, the -300 at 126 seats. As described in our last article, this is not an ideal size. You don’t amortize the cost of the aircraft’s crew over an optimal number of passengers at normal loadfactors and you have a smaller number of very specific 737-7 in your fleet. We now discuss what would be a more competitive definition for a 737 MAX 7.
Summary
- The 737-700 and MAX 7, as presently defined, is sized at 126 seats two class.
- A more competitive sizing would be closer to 150 seats in order to maximize the utilization of the regulatory mandated aircraft crew resources.
- The exact sizing will depend on how many seats the dominant customer, Southwest Airlines, wants to have in its one class economy seating, which uses a generous seat pitch of 31-32 inches.
Airbus Group 1Q 2016 results: Slow start to the year, guidance maintained.
By Bjorn Fehrm
28 April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group has had a slow start to 2016. Deliveries of A320neo, A350 and A400M are slowed by problems with engine and cabin suppliers. Only 127 aircraft were delivered out of a total guidance of 670 deliveries for 2016, a mere 18%. Group 1Q 2016 (1Q 2015) revenue were €12.2b (€12.1b) with EBIT of €501m (€651m), down 23% year on year.
The group expects to recover the shortfall in deliveries during the year and to reach guidance levels for revenue and EBIT, except for the troublesome A400M. This time it’s a engine gearbox item which is the culprit. Airbus CFO, Harald Wilhelm, gave a clear warning during the quarterly conference call: the A400M program “risks a significant charge” during the year.
The financial results for the divisions for the quarter were:
- The commercial aircraft division delivered 125 (134) aircraft with revenues €8,668m (€8,565m) and EBIT €407m (€569m).
- Airbus Helicopters delivered 56 (62) helicopters with revenues €1,158m (€1,285m) and EBIT €33m (€52m).
- Airbus Defence and Space revenues were €2,534m (€2,603m) with EBIT €109m (€90m).
Details of the Airbus Group 1Q 2016 results are below.
Virgin America does have some attractive attributes
March 29, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A report that JetBlue and Alaska Airlines submitted bids to buy Virgin America spurs the thought: this isn’t as wacky as it appears on
Virgin America route map. Click on image to enlarge.
the surface.
When news emerged last week that VA was shopping itself after interest was expressed, many thought, quite naturally, why?
Dan Reed neatly summarizes this argument in his column at Forbes.
Virgin America has few tangible assets. It leases all but about seven of its 10 Airbus A319s and 50 A320s. It’s not dominant in any city or route it serves. The leases are probably, on a relative basis, rather costly.
It has few slots at the few slot-controlled airports it serves (Chicago O’Hare, New York La Guardia and JFK airports and Washington Reagan National Airport), and only a few gates at any given airport—hardly enough to really boost presence of either Alaska or JetBlue.
Why should either airline want Virgin America?
Here’s why.
IRKUT MC-21 analysis, Part 4. Performance with PD-14
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March. 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In three articles we have been looking at the new Russian single aisle aircraft, Irkut MC-21, from United Aircraft and the new Russian engine that is being developed for the aircraft, the PD-14.
The PD-14, which is offered as an alternative to the base engine for the aircraft, the Pratt & Whtiney PW1400G, was analysed in our Part 3 article. We now mount the engine on the MC-21 and explore the difference in performance compared to the base engine.
Summary:
- The PD-14, which is a new engine designed by the Aviadvigatel company, is a clear step forward for the Russian turbofan industry.
- In our analysis in Part 3, we could see that it has a classical direct drive construction with a good level of technology in several parts.
- Weight and installation dimension are similar to the competition but efficiency is a bit behind.
- We now explore the performance of the MC-21 with the Russian engine.
ISTAT Day 1: Engine updates for CFM, GE, RR and PW
Feb. 29, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: The LEAP engine, for the Boeing 737 MAX, Airbus 
A320neo and COMAC C919 is the fastest-selling engine in history, says Jean-Paul Ebanga, the president of CFM International. More than 10,000 have been sold.
- We’re at the 2016 ISTAT AGM in Phoenix and will be reporting today and tomorrow on presentations and news from the sidelines.
“It’s on-time and on-spec,” Ebanga said. It’s either been on the date set four years ago or ahead of schedule. The engines delivered to Airbus for the A320neo are on spec, he said. It’s been certified for the neo and will be certified soon for the MAX, with 90% of the information submitted.
The MAX flies ahead of time
By Bjorn Fehrm
2 February 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The Boeing 737 MAX flew for the first time Friday. On Saturday it was in the air again. Boeing has communicated they will deliver the first aircraft to Southwest next year in the third quarter. We doubt it.
Boeing 737 MAX 8 takes off for first flight. Picture: Seattle Times.
It will be earlier, barring a major problem cropping up (and the chances are good there will be none).
Delivery of aircraft projects ahead of time is almost unheard of. And when it is Boeing that looks like being early, people start to think about the Dreamliner debacle. It was over three years late.
We would say: absolutely be skeptical, but in this case, there is reason for optimism.
Analysis: Sukhoi’s regional jet Superjet 100
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
18 January 2016, © Leeham Co: Russian aircraft have never succeeded in penetrating the Western market. But then they never really tried, until now. They were designed for the Soviet Union captive market, including the partner states that historically participated in or were friendly to the communistic system. One comes to think of China, Egypt, Libya, Cuba and Nicaragua.
The Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company (SCAC) Superjet 100 (SSJ100) is the first Russian aircraft specifically designed from the outset to compete on a world market.
We analyse its basic design and performance in comparison to the market leader in 100 seat regional flying, Embraer’s E190.
Summary:
- The SSJ100 is a half a generation younger design than the Embraer E190. It has modern aerodynamics, IMA-based modular avionics and an advanced Fly-By-Wire system.
- The feedback-based Fly-By-Wire enables a tight aircraft design with low wetted areas.
- The SSJ100 engines, SaM146, can best be described as a shrinked and cleaned up CFM56. They have the efficiency level of the E190’s CF34-10E.
- The aerodynamics and engines combine to give the SSJ100 a single digit edge in fuel burn over the E190.
Airbus needs more vertical integration, says official
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Introduction
John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers. Airbus photo.
March 3, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus may well have avoided the supplier-driven delivery delays on its A350s had the company brought some key work in-house and become more vertically integrated, says its chief operating officer-customers.
Airbus has been bedeviled by delays in business class seat and galley deliveries from supplier Zodiac, resulting in delayed deliveries of the A350-900 to several airlines.
John Leahy, in an interview with LNC at the International Society for Aircraft Transport Trading (ISTAT) conference Feb. 29-March 1 in Phoenix (AZ), said Airbus shouldn’t be at the mercy of suppliers of interiors. His wide-ranging interview also touched on several other topics.
Summary
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Posted on March 3, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
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737-7, 737-700, 787, A319, A320NEO, A330-900, A350, Airbus, Boeing, CFM, GTF, ISTAT, John Leahy, LEAP, Pratt & Whitney, Zodiac