Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Laser focus for MRJ program
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By Dan Catchpole
July 3, 2018, © Leeham News: It’s been two years since a small army of Japanese aerospace workers landed in Moses Lake, a sleepy former Air Force base town in rural Central Washington. The Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MAC) will be in Moses Lake for another four or five years as it nudges its new regional jets—the MRJ70 and MRJ90—into service.
Japan’s All Nippon Airways is the launch customer and first operator for the Mitsubishi MRJ90. Source: Mitsubishi.
The first Mitsubishi Regional Jet, the MRJ90, originally was supposed to enter into service in 2013, but myriad develop delays have dogged the sleek jet, which now is slated to deliver to launch customer All Nippon Airways in mid-2020.
Delays over for MRJ program, execs insist
By Dan Catchpole
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July 3, 2018, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. executives insist the MRJ90 is past the seemingly endless delays that have dogged its development. It is on track toward type certification and first delivery in mid-2020.
MRJ90 flight test vehicles at Mitsubishi’s Moses Lake (WA) flight testing facility. Source: Mitsubishi.
The problem is when it arrives, the 81-seat MRJ90 will be the wrong fit for the US market. Program executives praised the plane’s advanced design during media briefings at the MRJ flight test center in Moses Lake (WA), but when they spoke about market opportunity, it was for the smaller MRJ70, which is at least three years away from entering service.
Starting in 2022, Mitsubishi expects a wave of 50-seat regional jet retirements in the North American market. And North America—specifically the United States—”is the most important market for us to make this business successful,” said Yugo Fukuhara, Mitsubishi Aircraft vice president and general manager of sales and marketing.
Pontifications: C Series to Airbus, 10 years since program launch, lower fuel burn
By Scott Hamilton
July 2, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus officially became the majority partner yesterday of the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.
Airbus has a 50.01% stake in the LP, with Bombardier and the province of Quebec holding minority stakes.
Things will move quickly, now that Airbus has control.
Airbus is expected to announce a rebranding of the C Series at its July 10 pre-Farnborough Air Show media briefing. An aircraft is in the process of being repainted in Airbus colors for display at the event.
Bloomberg reported in April new names were to be assigned to the CS100 and CS300, probably the A210 and A230 respectively.
Construction of the new C Series Final Assembly Line in Mobile (AL) will begin sooner than expected. This was announced at the Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile, organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal.
Is Embraer selling the E190-E2 short?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 14, 2018, © Leeham News: The new Embraer E190-E2 entered service with its launch operator, Norwegian Wideroe, in April. We looked at the aircraft in two December articles. At the time, we focused on the improvements in fuel consumption and maintenance costs compared with the original E190.
Recently, we used our performance model to understand the maximum range of the aircraft. We were surprised when the flight with ease sailed past Embraer’s published maximum range figures.
Summary:
- Embraer gives the maximum range of the E190-E2 as 2,850nm.
- It uses “Single class seating” to reach this range, an unusual way to specify the maximum range. Normally one uses a two-class or three-class cabin.
- When using standard methods, we calculate a range well over Embraer’s information. Is Embraer selling the E190-E2 short?
Pontifications: Engine problems are getting worse
By Scott Hamilton
May 14, 2018, © Leeham News: The engine problems are getting worse.
These have moved beyond the technical issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000, GE Aviation GEnx, Pratt & Whitney GTF and CFM56.
The problems are trickling down to the maintenance, repair and overhaul shops.
LNC previously touched on the back-up in MRO shops due to the RR Trent 1000 problems, affecting even Trent 700 (Airbus A330) MRO scheduling. We’ve also reported the knock-on effect of the GTF MRO on other engine shop visits.
The mandated-inspections of CFM56 fan blades in the wake of the Southwest Airlines accident last month inundated MRO shops with unexpected visits.
Now, a European appraisal company forecasts that the “bow wave” of CFM56 shop visits will create a crisis for spare engines and parts.
Demand supports rate 70/mo for A320, 737
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Introduction
May 3, 2018, © Leeham Co.: With the supply chain confirming last Thursday that Airbus and Boeing are exploring single-aisle production rates of 70/mo, Airbus confirmed it was doing so during its Friday earnings call.
Boeing continues to be ambiguous, saying only there is “upward pressure” on its 737 production rates.
The supply chain, notably the engine OEMs, already has heartburn over the current rate of 60/mo and 52/mo for the A320 and 737 families respectively.
Summary
- Engine makers CFM and Pratt & Whitney continue to have technical and production issues.
- Airbus and Boeing each have “gliders,” though Boeing’s is a handful vs the dozens at Airbus.
- CFM’s partner, Safran, cautions against rate 70.
Production rates will be among the topics at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference next month in Mobile (AL). Click here for more information.
Engine deliveries affects Airbus 1Q2018 results
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 27, 2018, ©. Leeham News: Airbus Group presented its 1Q2018 results this morning. It’s heavily influenced by A320neo engine delivery delays.
Only 30 A320neos were delivered during Q1 out of a year total of 400. This has left Airbus with 60 A320neo gliders parked at Toulouse and Hamburg, waiting for engines.
Read more
Engine makers may face stiffer future ETOPS certification requirements
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Introduction
April 23, 2018, © Leeham News: Even before last week’s Southwest Airlines accident raised the focus on aircraft engines, industry officials were becoming worried that problems with engines powering the Boeing 747-8, 787, 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo may lead to stricter certification standards by regulatory authorities.
There is also emerging evidence that the issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 on the 787s may negatively impact Airbus’ sales efforts with the A350. The A350 is
powered by an entirely different RR engine, the Trent XWB, which by all accounts has had a virtually trouble-free entry into service.
But it’s a Rolls-Royce engine and airlines affected by or watching RR’s response to the Trent 1000 problems are skeptical about the Trent XWB, LNC is told.
Summary
- How long will it take for the FAA and EASE to restore full ETOPS for the 787?
- Concerns emerge that regulators may be more restrictive of ETOPS for new engines powering new planes, with the Boeing 777X next up.
- Impact seen on reception of Rolls-Royce engines on Airbus A330neo and A350.
- What do the engine problems mean for the Boeing NMA?
Narrowbody and Widebody engine developments, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 19, 2018, © Leeham News: In an article last week, we discussed the reason the new narrow-body engines are catching up to the fuel consumption of the wide-body engines.
Today we dig a bit deeper into the efficiency changes of the different engines and discuss which parameter changes have caused what changes in engine efficiency.
We will use our engine modeling software GasTurb to analyze what happens in a Turbofan when we change certain parameters.
Summary:
- The engine’s Core or Thermal efficiency changes with Turbine Entry Temperature (TET).
- To fully utilize such an increase in efficiency we need to adapt the overall design of the engine.
Indigo, India’s market-leading airline
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 18, 2018, ©. Leeham News: Indigo started its operation 2006, offering low-cost air travel to the masses in India. The year after, Air India and Indian Airlines, the state-owned flag International and Domestic carrier, merged to form India’s largest airline at the time, Air India.
By the end of 2010, Indigo passed Air India and by 2013 Jet Airways for domestic passenger market share, a position it has kept since.
