Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
Boeing cargo forecast: 540 new 777F, 747-8F category deliveries over 20 years
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Introduction
Boeing forecasts a requirement for 540 new cargo aircraft of 80 tonnes and up over the next 20 years. This is for airplanes in the Boeing 777F and 747-8F category.
Another 250 new-build cargo airplanes in the 40-80 tonne sector are also forecast in the latest Boeing Cargo forecast for 2014-2033, issued this month. Boeing also forecasts 1,330 P2F conversions.
The forecast is premised on an expectation that cargo traffic will grow at an annual rate of 4.7%.
The forecast appears to fly in the face of conventional wisdom.
Summary
- New-build freighter deliveries lag at Airbus and Boeing.
- Freight is increasingly being carried in the bellies of passenger aircraft.
- Airbus, Boeing orders for new-build freighters stalled.
- Cargo load factors dismal.
- IATA data points to continued challenges.