Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
Boeing can’t build 737s fast enough to meet demand
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Introduction
Nov. 5, 2018, © Leeham News: With a backlog of more than 4,700 737 MAXes and pressure to increase the production rate beyond 57/mo, an analysis of the backlog shows why Boeing has plenty of room left to sell more 737s and push rates to 63 or even 70/mo.
Current 737 operators have only placed MAX orders to replace 56.5% of the airplanes in service. This compares with 77% of the A320 family ratio.
The resulting 3,430 airplanes Boeing potentially can sell, when divided equally between 2020 through 2029, comes to 381 airplanes per year. Even at increased production rates to 63/mo in 2020 and 70/mo in 2021, Boeing would not be able to fulfill these orders.
There wouldn’t be surplus production slots until 2024 at this evenly distributed assumption. Realistically, deliveries have to concentrate between 2023 and 2029.
Summary
- Boeing can’t build 737s fast enough to fulfill the replacement requirement, let alone handle industry growth demand.
- 737 replacement launch expected once NMA enters service.
How useful is an NMA, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 1, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we looked at how a Boeing NMA would function as a medium range airliner in the Asia-Pacific.
We now continue with flying the two aircraft variants from Middle East locations, exploring how large an area in Asia, Europe and Africa the aircraft would cover.
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The profile of an NMA fits well in a Middle East Carrier’s fleet. Dependent on location it covers all of Europe and most of Africa and Asia.
- As the NMA is a lesser aircraft than the present long-range aircraft used on the routes it would have impressive economics for this type of operation.
Airbus’ disadvantages in widebody campaigns
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Introduction
Oct. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus faces a key disadvantage when it comes to winning current wide-body campaigns against Boeing.
The disadvantage is entirely out of its control.
It’s not about whether the A330neo or A350 vs the 787 economics are out of kilter. They’re not.
It’s about the engines, LNC is told by multiple market sources. Specifically Rolls-Royce engines, which exclusively power the Airbus wide-bodies.
Summary
- Airlines affected by Rolls-Royce-powered 787 problems are hopping mad.
- The negative halo effect puts questions over the Trent 7000-powered A330neo.
- While less affected, there is a negative halo effect over the Trent XWB-powered A350.
- Airlines considering follow-on ordered of 787s are ready to jump from RR to GE.
How useful is an NMA, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 25, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we looked at the trans-Atlantic capabilities for a Boeing NMA. We could see West Europe to East US worked fine, but then it quickly became sensitive to bad Winter weather on the Westward routes when we wanted to fly further.
Now we look at what works and not for Asia-Pacific, an important market for the NMA.
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The NMA is not ideal for the trans-Atlantic US to Europe market. Its reach is too limited.
- The Asian market works better as long as routes to “Down Under” are not considered.
How useful is an NMA, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 18, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we started an article series which analyzes how useful a Boeing NMA will be for medium to long-haul flights in different markets.
We first went through all the factors which will change the OEM’s nominal range to an operational range. Now we fly the NMA in one of its main markets and look how it fairs.
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The NMA is designed to compete on operational economics with Single Aisle aircraft, yet offer the comfort and turn-around times of a Twin Aisle.
- To get to Single Aisle economics, the NMA can’t be too much aircraft. This shows when analyzing how NMA fares on trans-Atlantic routes.
Zunum Aero is betting on better batteries tomorrow and the day after
danieljcatchpole(at)gmail(dot)com
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Introduction
Oct. 15, 2018, © Leeham News: Battery technology today leaves a lot to be desired. The energy density of even the most advanced batteries are a sliver of the density in good, old jet fuel.
But batteries pack enough power to lift Zunum Aero’s business plan to develop a gas-electric hybrid airplane. The startup company is convinced battery technology will improve fast enough in coming decades to ensure its airplanes will just keep getting more competitive.
“We come up with an airplane that is pretty good now, and fantastic in 10 years, and just keeps getting better after that,” Zunum co-founder and CTO Matt Knapp told LNC.
Summary:
- Zunum Aero’s business case rests on improvements in energy density and other elements of battery technology.
- The results of a fundraising round in 2019 could affect whether the planned EIS holds at 2023 or slips further right.
- Zunum Aero is confident that its ZA10 will be a success, and it has long-term plans for 50-seat and even 100-seat aircraft.
How useful is an NMA?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 11, 2018, © Leeham News.: The Boeing NMA is by now reasonably well defined. The passenger capacity is set at 225 seats for the smaller version and 265 seats for the larger. The nominal range is 5,000nm for the smaller version and 4,750nm for the larger NMA.
This is all nominal data. In practice, there will be different operational realities which will decrease these figures. How much and how useful will the final operational NMA be? What will be the economic advantage over the direct competition?
Artists impression of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
To find out, we will pit the NMA against its direct competition in a series of articles.
Summary:
- The NMA as defined is configured according to Boeing’s STANDARD rule set. Using these rules, the smaller variant is classified as a 225 seat airliner with a range of 5,000nm. The larger as a 265 seat aircraft with a 4,500nm range.
- In practice, operational realities and cabins changes compared with the ones used in the STANDARD ruleset will decrease the seating capacity of the aircraft and its range. How much and why is discussed in this, the first article in the series.
Huge surge of A320 orders greatly exceed near-, mid-term A320 retirements
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Introduction
Oct. 4, 2018, © Leeham News: The huge surge of orders for the Airbus A320 family far outstrips the aging aircraft statistics, an analysis shows.
Airbus has a backlog of more than 6,000 A320 family members, with more than 1,700 sales potential just for retirements.
There is a backlog of more than 6,000 A320neo family members, with the near- and mid-term delivery schedule far exceeding A320 retirements. Photo credit: Airbus.
There are more than 4,300 A320s scheduled for delivery from 2019 through 2025.
There are just 765 A320s that hit 25 years old during the same period.
The surge in A320-family aging aircraft begins in 2030, just as the bulk of the current backlog ends, according to data bases maintained by Ascend and Airfinance Journal’s Fleet Tracker.
Summary
- Useful lives of A320s in passenger service historically have been 25 years. Till now, no P2F programs existed to extend the useful lives.
- But, some passenger airlines are returning A320s off lease in 12 years or less—accounting for some of the surge in orders vs aging aircraft.
- Supply-demand imbalance in the secondary markets could emerge.
How Boeing’s T-X and NMA are connected
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 1, 2018, © Leeham News.: Boeing and its partner SAAB Thursday won a $9.2bn U.S. Air Force T-X Pilot Training contract. It was a win for its Defense, Space & Security division, yet it will have major implications for Boeing’s Commercial Airplane (BCA) division and the NMA.
The NMA will change the way Boeing develops, produces and supports airliners. The T-X is the pilot for this change.
Loose concept of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The focus of Boeing for the NMA is faster and lower cost development, cheaper production and an extended support offering.
- The Military T-X program pilots the work practices needed to make this possible.
What costs dominate an airliner’s operation? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 27, 2018, © Leeham News.: Over the last week’s we have looked at the costs for a typical Mainline and LCC airline operating in the US, Europe and Asian markets. The costs have been Direct Operating Costs (DOC) for the average routes operated by these airlines.
Now we finish the series with a look at the seat-mile costs so the Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft economics can be compared on routes both can serve.
Summary:
- When comparing seat-mile operating costs between Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft one must use the same cabin standards.
- Doing so will show the apples to apples operating costs of the two types when operating on sectors out to the maximum practical range of the Narrowbodies.