Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Collins Aerospace faces new merger before previous one is fully integrated
July 16, 2019, © Leeham News: Ajay Agrawal, the president of Collins Aerospace’s aftermarket services, wasn’t done integrating the 
merger between United Technologies and Rockwell Collins.
He now faces a new integration with the planned merger between United Technologies (Collins’ parent) and Raytheon. The new company will be called Raytheon Technologies. There’s little he can do until the merger is approved by regulators, except plan internally how to integrate and expand the aftermarket business.
14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027
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July 15, 2019, © Leeham News: There are 14 new and derivative aircraft scheduled for entry into service (EIS) through 2027. This rises to 16 if Boeing launches the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA).
But there are plenty of uncertainties around precise EIS hanging over some of these.
LNA sees entry into service for the Boeing 777X slipping to the first quarter of 2021.
LNA sees the Boeing 777X EIS slipping into early 2021. China’s C919 is now slated for a 2021 EIS, but development has been tricky and delays have been common. Russia’s MC-21 flight testing has been slow and international sanctions hang over this aircraft.
Mitsubishi’s MRJ90, now called the M90, is slated to enter service next year. It, too, has been plagued by delays. The redesigned MRJ70, the M100, moves from a 2021 EIS to a planned 2023 EIS—but given the MRJ90’s history of delays, the company has to persuade the industry no more slippages are likely.
Here is a rundown by year and aircraft of the EIS dates.
Pontifications: Boeing can’t catch a break
By Scott Hamilton
July 15, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing can’t catch a break.
Some may argue it doesn’t deserve one, given what’s come out about the 737 MAX development. And the sloppy production of the 787 at the Charleston (SC) plant. And the FOD issues with the KC-46A at the Everett (WA) plant.
To be sure, Boeing has gotten a lot of bad press it’s deserved. But last week, two pieces of news had connections to the MAX that were (1) overwrought and (2) unwarranted.
Airbus pulls anniversary book
July 12, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus has pulled the 50th year anniversary book it commissioned from veteran aviation reporter 
Nicola Clark.
LNA reviewed the book, Airbus: The First 50 Years, Monday.
Bjorn’s Corner: Kjos departure signals changes at Norwegian
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 12, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Norwegian Air Shuttles’ (Norwegian) founder and CEO for 17 years, Bjorn Kjos stepped down yesterday. Over the last year the CFO, Board chairman and now the CEO have changed.
This signals a change in strategy for Norwegian. The new management is focused on halting growth and cutting costs. Norwegian must now consolidate itself to profitability.
Figure 1. Norwegians Intercontinental network spring 2019. Source: Norwegian.
Will the NMA-7 finally kill the A330?
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By Judson Rollins
July 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing is expected to proceed with the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) once the 737 MAX gets clearance to return to service. News from the Paris Air Show indicates Boeing may launch the larger model, the NMA-7, first.
The 270-passenger version of the NMA is viewed by some—including Boeing—as the airplane that would effectively kill the A330neo.
Twelve years ago, the 787 was supposed to finally kill the A330 once and for all … and we saw how that turned out. But this time may well be different.
Rendering of Boeing NMA-7. Source: Leeham Co.
Predictive power of cargo volumes
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By Vincent Valery
July 8, 2019, © Leeham News: It has been said that the collapse of freight volumes in the second half of 2008 preceded the sharp drop in passenger traffic. Cargo also allegedly led the passenger recovery in the second half of 2009. We will verify with IATA data whether the data backs such claim.
We will also check whether cargo volumes still have as much predictive power in the post Great Recession world. The current context of increasing trade tensions and signs of economic slowdown make this analysis relevant. We will ponder whether the next global recession is around the corner.
Credit: Cathay Pacific.
Pontifications: Airbus-the First 50 Years
Book Review
By Scott Hamilton
July 8, 2019, © Leeham News: When a company authorizes or sponsors a book about some major event, the book is usually a puff piece meant for the coffee table in reception.
Airbus authorized the book, Airbus: The First 50 Years, but it’s no puff piece. It’s an honest, candid accounting of how the company came to be, navigating through country and corporate politics, face offs with rival Boeing, reporting the insider trading allegations and ending with the as-yet unfinished corruption scandal investigations.
Nicola Clark, the aerospace reporter for the International Herald Tribune, did a superb job up to her usual reporting standards while avoiding the puff pieces that usually come with an authorized book.
Bjorn’s Corner: Cutting corners in aerospace costs a fortune
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 05, 2019, ©. Leeham News: It seems more and more likely the 737 MAX grounding will go well beyond six months and it can approach nine months to a year depending on developments in the next months.
The costs to Boeing for the MAX debacle are now approaching the costs of a new aircraft development.
Twice daily with Airbus’ A321XLR or one daily with the A330-900?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 04, 2019, © Leeham News: Will the Airbus A321XLR change long-haul flying between city pairs within its range? The capacity is around 50% of an A330-900 so an operator could fly twice daily to move the passenger stream if the cost was the same.
Such a frequency advantage requires the seat-mile economics of the XLR to be the same as the A330-900. We use our airliner operating cost model to find out if it is.
Summary:
- Configured with a three class long-range cabin the A321XLR is half as large as the A330-900 equipped to the same cabin rules.
- Last weeks article showed the A321XLR was very competitive cost wise against the smaller A330-800.
- How much better is the larger A330-900? Can an operator depart twice daily with the XLR for the same cost as one rotation with the A330-900?